13 replies to this topic

[TWC]

Thought this article was fairly interesting, and makes me wonder why so many fewer football executives are willing to trust the advances stats/metrics alone, especially non-qualitative ones as those described in the article.

http://www.wired.com...all-case-study/

[T C]

I really like the idea of advanced analysis for a football team as a whole, but I have a HUGE issue with systems that try to evaluate each player on their own. In football, everyone's play is directly effected by those around them, and that seems like way way way too much noise to take care of and get a clear view of how effective a player is. I love sabermetrics for baseball players, but I do not trust them for football.

That being said, footballoutsiders.com does a lot of good work on the subject

[TWC]

You make a good point, and I probably erred in not being more specific. In the example offered in the article, there is a huge statistical advantage in going for it on 4th down (based on location and game time), and coaches regularly fail making the (statistically) correct decision. I thought it interesting and wonder why more team execs aren't following a stats-based approach.

[T C]

Yea, I read the article, sorry for not pointing that out. I agree, the idea about going for it on 4th down is awesome, and what is more I'm pretty sure they left out something important, which is that missing the field goal will give the other team even better field position (though maybe thats cancelled out by the small chances of pick-6's and what not). I think on the whole advanced analysis on a team-to-team level could be implemented on a much higher level. On the "why isn't it used more often" question, let me say that I played high school football, and the overall attitude from the coaches was that you go by the book and follow it like the Bible, and that thinking and math had little place in the game. (more specific example: my high school pretty much ran the mutherfucking wing-T in the 2000s, an offense that should have been shot and buried about half a century ago)

[MichiganGoat]

The 4th down stat could be jaded by how infrequently it's actually done, if everybody went when the odds tell them I'd imagine the success rate would decline.

[TWC]

Another take on the "go for it on 4th Down, dammit" hypothesis, this time with numbers and equations!

http://bit.ly/qn10nR

[Brett]

Another take on the "go for it on 4th Down, dammit" hypothesis, this time with numbers and equations!

http://bit.ly/qn10nR

Math hurts.

But, yes, go for it every time.

[Stinky Pete]

Shit. I literally have the book laying by my bed but cannot for the life of me think of the name. It's basically freakonomics for sports. Anyhoo, there is a section about a HS coach that never punts and some other things he does that break "sacred football tradition".

[Stinky Pete]

Is this kind of thinking breaking through? Are we going to have a "revolution" in the way the game is played like we have in baseball?

[T C]

Is this kind of thinking breaking through? Are we going to have a "revolution" in the way the game is played like we have in baseball?

For every one of those HS coaches, there are about 30 who still run a team like mine did, running the motherfucking Wing-T, feeding the fullback 30 times a game, and avoiding the throwing game like each pass was negative points. (despite my HS having a QB who had to be one of the most accurate in state history [29 TD, 0 int, 75% comp%]. They were still pretty successful thanks to some extremely skilled running backs and a big O-line, but we could have been so much better)

I think there might be a small amount of drift towards the use of these stats, but its not much. Nate Jackson wrote a fairly good piece about this the other day on deadspin: http://deadspin.com/...te-eric-mangini

[Robbo]

Shit. I literally have the book laying by my bed but cannot for the life of me think of the name. It's basically freakonomics for sports. Anyhoo, there is a section about a HS coach that never punts and some other things he does that break "sacred football tradition".

Pete, you talking about the book "Scorecasting"? I'm reading it now; interesting read so far

[hansman1982]

Another take on the "go for it on 4th Down, dammit" hypothesis, this time with numbers and equations! http://bit.ly/qn10nR

Math hurts. But, yes, go for it every time.

Everytime that the Hawkeyes punted within the opponents 40-yard line this year I was about ready to drive to the game to hit Ferentz on the head with a big stick.

[King Jeff]

I'm pretty sure that Lovie Smith doesn't even know that you can go for it on fourth down.

[hardtop]

I'm pretty sure that Lovie Smith doesn't even know that you can go for it on fourth down.

oh god, its funny because its true.