Jump to content





Bleacher Nation is on Facebook, and you should totally "Like" us:
 


Bleacher Nation is also on Twitter, and you should totally follow us:




Upcoming Calendar Events

There are no forthcoming calendar events

Today's birthdays

No members are celebrating a birthday today

Photo

Football Sabermetrics?


  • Please log in to reply
13 replies to this topic

#1 TWC

TWC

    Hippie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Twitter:@thomaswconroy
  • LocationHMB, CA

Posted 12 September 2011 - 11:23 AM

Thought this article was fairly interesting, and makes me wonder why so many fewer football executives are willing to trust the advances stats/metrics alone, especially non-qualitative ones as those described in the article.

http://www.wired.com...all-case-study/

#2 T C

T C

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 418 posts
  • Twitter:@tommyecook
  • LocationThe University of Illinois

Posted 12 September 2011 - 11:39 AM

I really like the idea of advanced analysis for a football team as a whole, but I have a HUGE issue with systems that try to evaluate each player on their own. In football, everyone's play is directly effected by those around them, and that seems like way way way too much noise to take care of and get a clear view of how effective a player is. I love sabermetrics for baseball players, but I do not trust them for football.

That being said, footballoutsiders.com does a lot of good work on the subject

#3 TWC

TWC

    Hippie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Twitter:@thomaswconroy
  • LocationHMB, CA

Posted 12 September 2011 - 11:59 AM

You make a good point, and I probably erred in not being more specific. In the example offered in the article, there is a huge statistical advantage in going for it on 4th down (based on location and game time), and coaches regularly fail making the (statistically) correct decision. I thought it interesting and wonder why more team execs aren't following a stats-based approach.

#4 T C

T C

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 418 posts
  • Twitter:@tommyecook
  • LocationThe University of Illinois

Posted 12 September 2011 - 12:43 PM

Yea, I read the article, sorry for not pointing that out. I agree, the idea about going for it on 4th down is awesome, and what is more I'm pretty sure they left out something important, which is that missing the field goal will give the other team even better field position (though maybe thats cancelled out by the small chances of pick-6's and what not). I think on the whole advanced analysis on a team-to-team level could be implemented on a much higher level. On the "why isn't it used more often" question, let me say that I played high school football, and the overall attitude from the coaches was that you go by the book and follow it like the Bible, and that thinking and math had little place in the game. (more specific example: my high school pretty much ran the mutherfucking wing-T in the 2000s, an offense that should have been shot and buried about half a century ago)

#5 MichiganGoat

MichiganGoat

    Give me a BEER

  • Moderators
  • 3,798 posts
  • Twitter:MichiganGoat
  • Facebook:michigangoat
  • LocationGrand Rapids, MI

Posted 12 September 2011 - 01:45 PM

The 4th down stat could be jaded by how infrequently it's actually done, if everybody went when the odds tell them I'd imagine the success rate would decline.

MichiganGoat on Twitter

"There are a lot of guys who are respected but not liked" - Ron Santo


#6 TWC

TWC

    Hippie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,052 posts
  • Twitter:@thomaswconroy
  • LocationHMB, CA

Posted 26 September 2011 - 01:56 PM

Another take on the "go for it on 4th Down, dammit" hypothesis, this time with numbers and equations!

http://bit.ly/qn10nR

#7 Brett

Brett

    Administrator

  • Administrators
  • 3,638 posts
  • Twitter:BleacherNation
  • Facebook:BleacherNation

Posted 27 September 2011 - 07:40 AM

Another take on the "go for it on 4th Down, dammit" hypothesis, this time with numbers and equations!

http://bit.ly/qn10nR

Math hurts.

But, yes, go for it every time.

#8 Stinky Pete

Stinky Pete

    The Woodward AND Bernstein of the Message Board

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 624 posts

Posted 15 November 2011 - 12:22 PM

Shit. I literally have the book laying by my bed but cannot for the life of me think of the name. It's basically freakonomics for sports. Anyhoo, there is a section about a HS coach that never punts and some other things he does that break "sacred football tradition".

#9 Stinky Pete

Stinky Pete

    The Woodward AND Bernstein of the Message Board

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 624 posts

Posted 15 November 2011 - 12:23 PM

Is this kind of thinking breaking through? Are we going to have a "revolution" in the way the game is played like we have in baseball?

#10 T C

T C

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 418 posts
  • Twitter:@tommyecook
  • LocationThe University of Illinois

Posted 16 November 2011 - 10:51 AM

Is this kind of thinking breaking through? Are we going to have a "revolution" in the way the game is played like we have in baseball?


For every one of those HS coaches, there are about 30 who still run a team like mine did, running the motherfucking Wing-T, feeding the fullback 30 times a game, and avoiding the throwing game like each pass was negative points. (despite my HS having a QB who had to be one of the most accurate in state history [29 TD, 0 int, 75% comp%]. They were still pretty successful thanks to some extremely skilled running backs and a big O-line, but we could have been so much better)

I think there might be a small amount of drift towards the use of these stats, but its not much. Nate Jackson wrote a fairly good piece about this the other day on deadspin: http://deadspin.com/...te-eric-mangini

#11 Robbo

Robbo

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 115 posts
  • LocationChicago, IL

Posted 09 February 2012 - 04:41 PM

Shit. I literally have the book laying by my bed but cannot for the life of me think of the name. It's basically freakonomics for sports. Anyhoo, there is a section about a HS coach that never punts and some other things he does that break "sacred football tradition".


Pete, you talking about the book "Scorecasting"? I'm reading it now; interesting read so far

#12 hansman1982

hansman1982

    King Regent of The Calendar Trivia Empire

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,937 posts
  • Twitter:JoeHansman
  • LocationDes Moines, IA

Posted 10 February 2012 - 02:35 PM

Another take on the "go for it on 4th Down, dammit" hypothesis, this time with numbers and equations! http://bit.ly/qn10nR

Math hurts. But, yes, go for it every time.


Everytime that the Hawkeyes punted within the opponents 40-yard line this year I was about ready to drive to the game to hit Ferentz on the head with a big stick.

#13 King Jeff

King Jeff

    King of all Cubs fans!

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2,475 posts
  • Twitter:@peaceknuckle
  • LocationSouth Florida

Posted 18 February 2012 - 08:18 AM

I'm pretty sure that Lovie Smith doesn't even know that you can go for it on fourth down.

#14 hardtop

hardtop

    Bleacher Bum

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 128 posts
  • LocationThe Queen City of the Plains

Posted 27 February 2012 - 07:12 PM

I'm pretty sure that Lovie Smith doesn't even know that you can go for it on fourth down.


oh god, its funny because its true.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Bleacher Nation is not affiliated in any way with Major League Baseball or the Chicago National League Ballclub (that's the Cubs).