11 replies to this topic

[Brett]

A question:

If it just so happens that Ian Stewart stays healthy and fulfills the promise of his high prospect designations by crushing it this year; if Bryan LaHair, it turns out, really is a different player and can keep on hitting; if Chris Volstad, like Stewart, emerges as the stud his pedigree says he should have been; if David DeJesus bounces back and puts up a .350+ OBP...

Say all that happens - do we conclude that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are geniuses, and knocked those decisions out of the park because they're so good at this?

Or would that kind of success just a matter of luck?

Both?

[SirCub]

Both?

Yup. They'd have to be pretty darn lucky to get all those things to go their way, but I think they are geniuses no matter what.

[Crockett]

I think the Stewart thing is actually playing the odds, along with Volstad. Stewart, if healthy, should produce very good numbers, but he's been an insurance company's nightmare for a while. Volstad has very good advanced metrics and pretty decent peripherals, but he just hasn't been able to put it together.

[Edgar]

I think you said best. Low risk high reward

[Ben in Nebraska]

If you look at the sum of all the moves mentioned, I don't believe that the greater idea that Theo and Jed had at the time was to make the Cubs into contenders this year, or any year with this nucleus really. I think they're all low risk type of guys like the others have pointed out that you use to fill a roster on the cheap while doing all the other things (drafting, signing the right free agents to larger or longer term deals) that they want to accomplish.
Career type years for all of these guys at the same time would have to be considered some sort of luck. But, at the same time, we will owe them credit for having the forethought to get guys with some upside rather than overspending on guys like Rami simply to justify "not mailing it in."

[Brett]

If you look at the sum of all the moves mentioned, I don't believe that the greater idea that Theo and Jed had at the time was to make the Cubs into contenders this year, or any year with this nucleus really. I think they're all low risk type of guys like the others have pointed out that you use to fill a roster on the cheap while doing all the other things (drafting, signing the right free agents to larger or longer term deals) that they want to accomplish.
Career type years for all of these guys at the same time would have to be considered some sort of luck. But, at the same time, we will owe them credit for having the forethought to get guys with some upside rather than overspending on guys like Rami simply to justify "not mailing it in."

So, it kind of sounds like you're saying "lucky."

(And you've also touched on the thought that was animating my question - if all of these things happen, isn't it primarily "luck," given our suspicion that Theo and Jed weren't trying to build a powerhouse this year?)

[Ben in Nebraska]

Kinda sounds like that, yeah! Haha. Obviously having career years all at once would be lucky. Also lucky considering, as you just said, the idea wasn't creating a powerhouse on the North Side in 2012. But, it's "smart luck" given the fact that they were at the least high upside guys.

Clear as mud?

[Cubbie Blues]

So much for Stewart staying healthy.

[Ben in Nebraska]

Cubbie Blues - Nice terminator! '03 or '04?

[Cubbie Blues]

'03 with 500 up to thr rear wheels. Sadly I had to sell it when our 3rd child was born back in November. It was a blast to drive especially with the top down.

[packman711]

I see it like this: if a stock broker bet the farm on Apple 2 weeks ago, would today's dividends be lucky, or good? He aligned himself with a solid long term plan (good), but he hit the jackpot sooner than he thought (lucky).

I feel that if we asked them we would get something like "I don't believe in luck, only opportunity". Therefore, I pick option D, opportunistic.

[Ben in Nebraska]

Yeah, I just sold my '07 GT500. I changed a few things out on it as well and was putting down about 475. The wheel hop on that car drove me nuts though. I just got a '05 GT that a guy had put a Ford Racing 5.0 (4.6 3V block) that's got all forged internals. It's putting down about 445 to the tires, all motor right now. It's setup for a blower, but I'm going to wait a while on that one. This guy had to sell his car too due to an expanded family.
I just have my son, so it's not been an issue. Plus my wife is an avid Mustang nut, so I don't think any of mine are going anywhere!