33 replies to this topic

[Brett]

A discussion in the comments got me wondering.

Which is better for the Cubs: surprisingly winning 80 games in 2012 (but missing the playoffs, obviously), or losing 115 games and being the clear worst team in baseball?

[Crockett]

Either/or. A lower slot in the first round of the draft increases money that can be spent later in the first 10 rounds, in theory..so 80 wins wouldn't be terrible. 115 wins would mean Mark Appel, etc which is obviously beneficial.

[T C]

Ill take the stupid number of losses. It would give us a high pick in the 2013 draft, which I hear has better talent than the 2012 draft, it would give us the impetus to trade away a lot of players at the deadline (when there could potentially be a lot of buyers due to the added wild card), and it could spark a very long term rebuilding effort that includes an 80-90 mil/yr payroll that would give Ricketts the added financial flexibility to help renovate the ballpark.

The only downside to that, in my mind (other than the obvious pain of watching such a team and a slight decline in attendance) would be the possibility of it hurting the value of a new TV deal. Other than that, bring on the losses

[Fishin Phil]

I'll take the 80 wins, thank you. While I don't expect them to contend this year, I do expect to see progress.

[T C]

... I do expect to see progress.

Why though, Phil? This team lost 2 of its 3 best bats from last season, and didn't really make up for it at any of the other positions, and the pitching probably stayed about the same on the whole. Where can there really be much improvement?

[MichiganGoat]

Where can there really be much improvement?

1-No Quade
2-No Quade
3-No Quade
4-Chemistry Cat Pajamas

But yes hard to see how this team is better on paper, but that must mean we win 90 games.

[SirCub]

Better for the Cubs how? For their long term success and chances of winning a world series? Maybe a 50-win would be best for the reasons listed above.

But what about for their fan following, revenue, organizational morale/enthusiasm? Would the city of Chicago be so likely to pony up the funds for the Wrigley renovations if the Cubs were the laughing stock of the league? Clearly a season like that could be devastating in all of those respects, and the potential costs might outweigh any benefits from gaining a higher draft pick.

[Fishin Phil]

... I do expect to see progress.

Why though, Phil? This team lost 2 of its 3 best bats from last season, and didn't really make up for it at any of the other positions, and the pitching probably stayed about the same on the whole. Where can there really be much improvement?

Aside from the reasons MG so eloquently pointed out (and I honestly believe that is 5 games right there), I expect the team to be better prepared and more motivated than last year.

I don't realistically expect them to win 80 games this year (I would not rule it out), but if they can't do better than that trainwreck we saw last year, I will be very surprised.

[T C]

... I do expect to see progress.

Why though, Phil? This team lost 2 of its 3 best bats from last season, and didn't really make up for it at any of the other positions, and the pitching probably stayed about the same on the whole. Where can there really be much improvement?

Aside from the reasons MG so eloquently pointed out (and I honestly believe that is 5 games right there), I expect the team to be better prepared and more motivated than last year.

I don't realistically expect them to win 80 games this year (I would not rule it out), but if they can't do better than that trainwreck we saw last year, I will be very surprised.

Better motivation can only do so much, though. At some point, a player's talent is maxed out, and all the enthusiasm and hard work can't help them improve anymore. Ian Stewart being motivated doesnt make him an upgrade over Aramis Ramirez. Darwin Barney is one of the most motivated players Ive ever seen, and that doesnt make him a good second baseman, or even one that is league average.

All the motivation in the world isn't going to help these guys hit more 95-mph fastballs and 85mph sliders, or help the pitchers throw more strikes. Thats based almost entirely on talent. And talent is something this team greatly lacks

[Fishin Phil]

So TC, how many games do you see this sorry collection of misfits winning this year?

[TWC]

I gotta admit, it pains me to see anyone say that they'd rather have the Cubs win 55 games than win 80 games. Yeah, I get it, a better draft pick. Seems small comfort to me.

[Fishin Phil]

I gotta admit, it pains me to see anyone say that they'd rather have the Cubs win 55 games than win 80 games. Yeah, I get it, a better draft pick. Seems small comfort to me.

I understand the rationale behind the hight draft pick. But if they are actually 15 games worse than last year, I may put my little puppet eyes out with a red hot poker by August.

[MaxM1908]

I'm not sold that overall we will have worse bats than last year. Losing ARam and Pena surely hurts, but I think we will see great things from LaHair and Stewart. Furthermore, I think Soto, Barney, and Soriano will be better than last year. I base this on a few unproven factors, but positive factors nonetheless: better clubhouse culture (don't let the door hit you on the way out, Zambrano and ARam), more accountability (star players waiting in the wings, better management under Sveum) and better preparation (video analysis, improved scouting, offseason bulking up and development--Barney in particular). I'm optimistic, but I can't help but believe that the culture at Wrigley this year is going to be one of performance and winning. That can't make us a playoff team, but we won't see the half-assed efforts of last season. The nine guys on any given day are going to play their hardest and I believe that will be reflected in surprising stats and a surprising win total.

[MichiganGoat]

Max you reminded me of:
5-Water Coolers are finally safe this equals better water for the players
6-Bats are no longer in fear of being snapped over an insane man's knee, therefore bats will be happy
7-Teamates will not fear being attacked by El Toro Loco, this will result in better sleep for players

Anyway you look at it these equal at least 10 wins.

[HoustonTransplant]

As a fan, I'd like to see as many wins as possible; but as a realist, I know that they're going to be B.A.D. bad. The ONE thing I have is that there's still one more year of having the Astros in the NL, and I'll get to (hopefully) see some winning Cub baseball when they come down here this summer...although, it feels as if Houston has been a thorn in the Cubs side for years now.

But I digress...I want more wins, just so I don't feel so damned depressed all summer, ha.