5 replies to this topic

[BlueHorizons]

WIth Marlon Byrd off to a particularly horrible start... batting at a "blistering" pace of .048, what are the chances of Brett Jackson making an early season migration to Wrigley? I know that Byrd has been included in some trade talks w/ the Nats... Would getting rid of Byrd or Sorian be a prerequisite to a Jackon promotion?

At this point, even though Byrd is one of my favorite Cubs players, I am in "finger crossing" mode, in hopes that Byrd can fly the coup and Jackson can make his nest in Chicago. Is this even a possibility?

[Cubbie Blues]

There is no one on the 25 man roster blocking BJax. He and Rizzo will stay down in the Minors until June so the club will get an extra year of control out of them.

[hansman1982]

There is no one on the 25 man roster blocking BJax. He and Rizzo will stay down in the Minors until June so the club will get an extra year of control out of them.

DING DING DING DING - The ABSOLUTELY earliest that we will see Jackson is the first two weeks of May, and even then that will only be if they trade Byrd. Rizzo is more interesting because they have to wait longer for his extra year of control, which means that LaHair would have to be mashing the ball, but either way, I highly doubt you will see this club make any knee jerk reactions with these two. They undoubtedly set certain call-up dates based on performance of the players and will stick to those. I sincerely doubt that any player has been harmed long term by an extra few months in AAA but there are many players that are harmed by early callups.

[DocPeterWimsey]

Also, Byrd's "horrible start" really does not mean much. He's 1 for 21. Facing league average pitching, you expect one 0.280 hitter in 46 to be on a 1 for 21 streak. His K's are one more than most probable given his career and thus hardly out of whack with his career: if he had 1 fewer K, then his K frequency would be below career average. His walk rate is dead on career levels. Now, he does have no extra base hits: but we expect him to have 1 or 2 at this point: 0 is hardly unexpected.

(The "league average pitching" also is important: 21 ABs is a 4-game series, and 0.300 hitters will have a couple of lost 4-game series every year because they are facing above-average pitching.)

The really telling stat on Byrd is that he's gotten 1 single on 15 balls that he has hit. Usually he gets singles 24% of the time when he hits the ball, which means that we expect 3 or 4 singles instead of 1 right now. And, again, a guy who gets singles 24% of the time is going to have 1 for 15 stretches one time in ten.

Now, does he look bad? Probably: but guys always "look" bad when they don't hit the ball well. The difference is that they "fought it off" if the ball gets past fielders but just "looked bad" if it doesn't.

If Byrd is still hitting like this come May, then worry. But focus on his K, BB & XBH numbers: it's when those change that you really need to worry.

[Segal27]

I would love Bjax to come up right now, considering I've watched him since his college days, but the wait is going to worth that extra year of control. Byrd can never get another hit and I don't want Brett up till June

[Crockett]

I am pretty convinced that Byrd is off the Clear. Hence the massive weight loss and infinitely less Bonds-like statistical show.