A lot needs to happen for Mitch Trubisky to take the highly-anticipated second-year leap into stardom like Carson Wentz and Jared Goff did last season. It’s definitely not going to happen over night, but there are things we can point at from his rookie season that give us hope that he can take that jump. For starters, let’s highlight his first quarter excellence.
Pro Football Focus’ Cam Mellor shared PFF quarterback grades for each quarter in 2017, and you’ll find Mitch Trubisky at the top of the first-quarter leaderboard. Trubisky earned the highest grade per dropback in the first quarter of any quarterback. Better than Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton who round out the top-5. That’s impressive stuff for a rookie signal caller who was working in an offense that seemingly went out of its way to not take advantage of his strengths.
PFF’s metrics paint a pretty picture for Trubisky and his future. He posted an adjusted completion percentage of 84.7, which PFF notes was the highest in the league last season by 3.0 points. Trubisky was also at his best when opposing defenses sent additional pass-rushers, putting up a league-best 127.4 rating in those situations. And when he was kept clean, Trubisky’s 107.0 passer rating ranked 11th in the league. So while these are all excellent numbers, football is a four-quarter game and Trubisky slumped after the opening stanza.
Trubisky completed 73.8 percent of his passes in the first quarter, throwing his way to a 100.3 rating. In the other three quarters, Trubisky completed just 56.0 percent of his passes and his passer rating was a less than ideal 70.1. The numbers get more troublesome the deeper you look, with the fact that he threw more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4) after the first quarter’s conclusion being very alarming. And that 59.8 fourth-quarter passer rating is downright discouraging if you’re looking at the past while also dreaming of a better future.
There are several ways to to digest this information, but I think it’s worth pointing out that teams often script plays to get things going on offense – yes, even Dowell Loggains and the Bears. That Trubisky excelled in these situations suggests that he took to good coaching and could actually take his game to another level if he was given quality, consistent play-calling.
Even though Trubisky is in the second year in the pros, he will basically start with a clean slate (again) with Matt Nagy taking over as his head coach. And while the overall numbers aren’t all that great, those first-quarter numbers represent a decent place to start.