10 replies to this topic

[durbo55]

As another disappointing season comes to a close, I examine what the season could have been if RHP Chris Carpenter had remained a starter this year for the Cubs. Carpenter was transformed in to a reliever this fall when he lit up the radar guns in the AFL (Arizona Fall League), hitting triple digits with his fastball. Prior to this season Carpenter was one of the top starting pitchers in the Cubs organization. With the struggles of the 4 and 5 starters this season one can’t help but ask himself. Did the Cubs make the right decision in moving him to the bullpen?
Carpenter‘s stats as a starter the past three seasons are 14 wins, 13 losses, 3.44 ERA, 264 IP, 230 K’s, 107 BB’s. Most of these stats were complied from the AA and AAA levels. Compare those with the four and five starters this season for the Cubs (Lopez, Davis, and Coleman): 7 wins, 19 losses, 171 IP, 5.93 ERA, 122 K’s, 88 BB’s. Many people say the Cubs are trying to be conservative with Carpenter because he had Tommy John surgery his sophomore year in college at Kent State. With that [being] said he still made 30 starts and pitched 151 innings last year between Tennessee and Iowa with no stints on the DL because of his elbow.
Carpenter had a respectable year while he was up with the Cubs this year pitching 9.2 innings with a 2.78 ERA over 10 appearances. Carpenter has said in interviews that it’s a different mentality coming into a game as a reliever as he doesn’t have time to settle in and find his rhythm. Carpenter has been that way since his high school days at Bryan High School. He becomes more and more dominant as the game progresses and he gets in his rhythm. Carpenter has the build and stuff to be a good (not great) starting pitcher. I’m not saying he is a CY-Young award winner waiting to happen. On his current trend as a starter in the minor leagues if given 30 starts this season with the Cubs Carpenter would have most likely been, 12 wins, 9 losses, 3.66 ERA, 165 K’s, 76 BB’s and 180 IP. Again with that [being] said it could have been +/- 3 wins and +/- 1 point of the ERA.

Moving into the offseason it would be nice to think that next years rotation could be Garza, Dempster, Cashner, Wells (who has been hot of late), and Carpenter. Let’s stop wasting time hoping that Jeff Samardzija will be a quality starting pitcher. Samardzija has been just fine out of the pen this year. The bullpen, outside of the few Marmol blowups, has been respectable the entire season. The AFL this offseason should give us a better idea of how the Cubs will use Cashner and Carpenter moving forward into next season.

[Fishin Phil]

I can't believe it, but this year's MLB season is making me look forward to the AFL season.

[T C]

I think the main issue here is that Carpenter has had serious issues staying healthy as a starter. If that's the case, theres no reason to switch him back. And with his stuff, he could be a dominant late inning guy

[durbo55]

I have known Chris for a long time and since his Tommy John surgery i cannot remember the last time he was injured as a starter with a arm related injury. So i don't understand that logic with him not staying healthy as a starter. I know they are concerned somewhere with the fact that he did have Tommy john, but i just think with his stuff and his background as a starter and his comfort zone in being a starter he should be given the chance to make an impact as a 4 or 5 starter next season.. I mean what else do we have to loose?

[Alex]

I'm thinking that the Cubs have to go out and get a front line starter somehow.

I agree with T C on Carpenter's ability to stay healthy as a starter. Maybe long relief and spot starter next year might work.

[durbo55]

After talking with Chris this past weekend. He says he is staying in the bullpen next year. He said he is really going to be focused getting used to coming in and being able to make his pitches out of pen early. He says he like relieving and is excited about next year. We should see more out of him next year. He says the upper management fully expects him to be there all of next season out of the pen. Also depending with what happens to marmol and Samardzija we should expect to see Carp in the later innings as a setup man/right handed specialist. Either way i think he has some really exciting stuff and will be a good asset for the cubs moving forward.

[Brett]

After talking with Chris this past weekend. He says he is staying in the bullpen next year. He said he is really going to be focused getting used to coming in and being able to make his pitches out of pen early. He says he like relieving and is excited about next year. We should see more out of him next year. He says the upper management fully expects him to be there all of next season out of the pen. Also depending with what happens to marmol and Samardzija we should expect to see Carp in the later innings as a setup man/right handed specialist. Either way i think he has some really exciting stuff and will be a good asset for the cubs moving forward.

Thanks for that, John. I think Carp could be a tremendous part of the bullpen next year if the Cubs just give him a chance.

[durbo55]

No problem Brett... so interesting topic i heard today on espn radio.. What your take on if the Red Sox do finish out this collapse and then the cubs COULD have the possiblity of getting Theo, and Terry Francona from the SOX! I will gladly take both of them going into next year! Your thought on that a the likelyhood that could possibly happen?

Edited by durbo55, 27 September 2011 - 05:48 AM.

[Brett]

No problem Brett... so interesting topic i heard today on espn radio.. What your take on if the Red Sox do finish out this collapse and then the cubs COULD have the possiblity of getting Theo, and Terry Francona from the SOX! I will gladly take both of them going into next year! Your thought on that a the likelyhood that could possibly happen?

Obviously the likelihood goes up if the Red Sox actually do complete the collapse. I'd still put it at something less than 20%, but it would be, at that point, an actual, legitimate possibility.

[hansman1982]

Obviously the likelihood goes up if the Red Sox actually do complete the collapse. I'd still put it at something less than 20%, but it would be, at that point, an actual, legitimate possibility.

Just two weeks ago I had that the probability of us getting Epstein after an epic collapse at -413% - now, reading about the reactions from fans and writers around Boston I think we get a better chance than if they win the WS.

[King Jeff]

No problem Brett... so interesting topic i heard today on espn radio.. What your take on if the Red Sox do finish out this collapse and then the cubs COULD have the possiblity of getting Theo, and Terry Francona from the SOX! I will gladly take both of them going into next year! Your thought on that a the likelyhood that could possibly happen?

Even ESPN is stealing our stuff now. I posted on the forum about this very thing last week. We are truly cutting edge here.