Are the Chicago Cubs Overpaying for the Starlin Castro Extension?

Although the extension has not yet been finalized – it could take another week or two – the prognostication has already started on whether the reported seven year, $60 million (plus an option year at the end) deal is a steal for the Cubs, a fair price, or an overpayment. For me, I’m going to wait until we see the particulars before digging in my heels too aggressively.

Until then, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs has an interesting take on the reported deal, comparing Castro to other young stars who’ve signed extensions that covered a portion of their arbitration years. Specifically, FanGraphs focused on other players who had reached Super Two status, and would thus qualify for four years of arbitration, rather than the usual three.

By looking at each player’s pro-rated WAR (how much WAR they would have accumulated in the average season before the extension), we can compare each to Castro’s reported deal, and get a sense of whether it falls in line, or is an outlier in either direction. From Dave Cameron at FanGraphs:

The entire article is well worth a read, but the salient points about the chart:

Among those who did sign away free agent years, though, it is interesting that there’s a nearly perfect linear increase in terms of years and dollars with each each extension. Cano got 4/30, Gonzalez got 5/40, Bruce got 6/50, and Castro has got 7/60 – in each case, the guaranteed dollar amount went up by $10 million for each additional year added on. And, note the relationship between length of deal and age – including the team options, the contracts for Bruce, Cano, and Castro all end after their age 30 season despite the fact that they signed them at different ages. Bruce and Cano were coming off better seasons than what Castro has posted this year, but he had youth on his side, which is why (along with inflation, anyway) he got more guaranteed money than either one.

The other notable takeaway from these contracts? You probably don’t want your best young players qualifying for Super-Two status. For comparison, both Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen also signed long term extension for $51 million over six guaranteed years with a little over two years of service time under their belts when they signed the deal, and both were coming off substantially better seasons than what Castro has put up this year. Castro got more guaranteed money than either one despite being an inferior player because of that extra year of arbitration eligibility.

Had Castro been called up a couple of months later in 2010, he would have been looking at another year of near-minimum salary, and would have been negotiating from a significantly reduced amount of leverage. If you look at the deals signed by the like of Alexei Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, you’ll notice that Castro’s Super-Two status probably got him an extra $10 to $20 million over the life of the deal.

A few thoughts.

(1.) The dynamics for extensions seem to have changed considerably since the announcement of the new CBA, with teams allocating more resources to the big league payroll, and to ensure that they keep their own young talent. I think comparing this extension to those that came before the CBA is, well, it’s not quite an apples/oranges thing, but it’s close. For the Cubs to have inked a deal that is largely in line with similar players from as far back as three, four years ago seems like a nice get.

(2.) Starlin Castro is a shortstop – who’s become an above average defensive shortstop this year – whose bat projects to get almost as good as a number of the compared hitters, including those in the article who were not Super Twos. Yes, the Cubs are absolutely paying for the projection rather than the production, but again, we’re talking about a good defensive shortstop with a possibly big bat. Those guys are always going to get a premium because there are extraordinarily few of them.

(3.) FanGraphs is absolutely right that the Super Two status is a killer to the tune of as much as $10 million over the course of Castro’s four arbitration years (and perhaps even more, when considering the full life of the deal). Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry gets a lot of grief for calling up Castro when he did in 2010, rather than waiting another month or two and staving off Super Two status. Some of that criticism is fair, but let’s not lose historical perspective: in early May 2010, when Castro was called up, the Chicago Cubs were but five games out in the NL Central (just two games under .500), a race they were expected to compete in. They had serious issues in the middle infield, and Castro was raking in the minors. The call-up was not only not panned at the time, it was mostly lauded. And the Cubs waited long enough to ensure he didn’t reach free agency a year early, so at least there was that.

written by

Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

more cubs news

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Pre-Gamin’: Cubs at Rangers – Lineups, Pitching Matchup, Broadcast Info, Game Thread

*SHORT COURTS: It's Time To Bring The Home Court, Home! Looking for a unique way to celebrate your athlete or team before you peruse the FIRST CHICAGO CUBS LINEUP of the Year? Don't miss out! For just one more week...

The Cubs Are Among the Most Returning-y Teams

I am still mostly incapacitated at the moment, so apologies for the short shrift on such an otherwise blessed day. In between pokes and prods, I wanted to share a chart I saw that was pretty interesting, even if unsurprising:...

Maybe the Cubs Are the Favorites in the NL Central, After All?

ESPN was the first to throw some love the Cubs way this week, with an overwhelming majority of their writers, analysts, and editors picking the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central in 2024. But the love doesn't end there....

The Season Begins, Love for Morel, Counsell’s Value, and Other Cubs Bullets

You know where you want to spend your Opening Day morning? The hospital! Suffice to say, this is not how I imagined getting HYPED for the Cubs' opener. I guess I'll just have to think about all the possible lineup...

Cubs vs Rangers: The First Series of the Year!

Cubs vs Rangers — THE REGULAR SEASON IS HERE! Wake up and rejoice. Later tonight, the Cubs will begin their march toward October Baseball against the (reigning World Series champion) Texas Rangers in Arlington. Justin Steele is getting the nod...

The 2024 Chicago Cubs for Dummies

Boom. We made it. The offseason is over, and the Cubs regular season - and those elevated expectations - begins tomorrow. But in case you slept through the winter, I'm here to catch you up on everything you need to...

I’m Expecting More This Year, Cubs — It’s Time to Start Winning

There's no way around it: The Chicago Cubs did *not* have the offseason we hoped they might after making Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in MLB history. Not that they did poorly, mind you. Cody Bellinger, Shota Imanaga, and...

Latest News

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

In their season opener on Friday, Corbin Carroll and the Arizona Diamondbacks take on Nolan Jones and the Colorado Rockies, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at Chase Field.Keep reading to find out how to watch the Arizona-Colorado...

Guardians vs. Athletics: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

Logan Allen will take the mound for the Cleveland Guardians when they square off against starter Ross Stripling and the Oakland Athletics in their season opener on Friday, with first pitch at 9:40 PM ET.Find out how to watch the...

How to Watch Mariners vs. Red Sox: Live Stream or on TV

In their season opener on Friday, Julio Rodriguez and the Seattle Mariners play Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park.Keep reading to see how to watch the Seattle-Boston matchup...

How to Watch Padres vs. Giants: Live Stream or on TV

Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres (2-1) host Jorge Soler and the San Francisco Giants (0-1) on Friday, with first pitch at 9:40 PM ET.The article below will provide you with everything you need to know to watch...

Dodgers vs. Cardinals: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The St. Louis Cardinals (0-1), led by Paul Goldschmidt, visit Mookie Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) at 10:10 PM ET on Friday.Keep scrolling to find out all the details on how to watch Los Angeles play St. Louis...

OMG: Michael Busch Scored the 9th Inning, GO-AHEAD Run, Because He Just Never Stopped Running

That was absolutely incredible. To all the little kids out there, when your coach tells you to never stop running, this is why. Rookie Cubs 1B Michael Busch (the guy the Cubs got from the Dodgers this offseason to be...

Astros vs. Yankees: Start Time, Streaming Live, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Houston Astros (0-1), with Cristian Javier on the mound, will host the New York Yankees (1-0), who will send out Carlos Rodon, at 8:10 PM ET on Friday.If you're trying to watch this game, keep reading for streaming and...

Rays vs. Blue Jays: Free Live Stream, TV Channel, How to Watch

The Toronto Blue Jays (1-0), led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., visit Yandy Diaz and the Tampa Bay Rays (0-1) at 6:50 PM ET on Friday.Find out how to watch the Tampa Bay-Toronto matchup below.When is Rays vs. Blue Jays and...

Enhanced Box Score: Rangers 4, Cubs 3 – March 28, 2024

It took exactly one day for the Cubs' ace to sustain what may be a significant injury, for their closer to blow a save, for the umpires to significantly impact the outcome of a critical play (this time in the...

Justin Steele Injury Update: New Classification, MRI Tomorrow, IL Stint Coming? Steele and Counsell Speak

A significant update on Justin Steele came from Craig Counsell tonight after the Cubs extra innings loss in Texas. In short: Yes, a stint on the Injured List is likely for Justin Steele. But we still don't know how severe...

more cubs news