30 replies to this topic

[Brett]

Here's a random, far, far off conversation that assumes a lot of things: if Matt Szczur progresses nicely, makes the bigs, and is still viewed as a superior defensive center fielder to Brett Jackson (whom we're assuming also has made the bigs), what happens to Jackson?

It's easy to say, "just move him to a corner spot." But here's the thing: his bat might be below average for a corner spot. It might be WELL below average.

So, wouldn't the Cubs be better off trading Jackson at that point?

[Hector Villanueva]

David Dejesus doesn't provide much power but he plays right. Jackson will have enough power to play right or left. 15-20 homers in this era is good enough. The better question is will Jackson cut down on his strike outs to make it to the bigs?? Also I don't think Szczur is going to progress as much as everybody thinks. He is struggling to hit in high A ball, doesn't bode well for him or us.

[Crockett]

Trade them both. Right now. Fleece some idiot GM. Do it, Jedstein. Please.

[King Jeff]

We should probably have a good idea what Jackson can and cannot do by the time Sczcur is ready. If not, chances are one of them will be a bust, so the trade route is the smartest idea.

[Oswego Chris]

I am very suspect on both of them...if you look at 2013 free agents, there isn't alot there...so during the off season...to spend some money the Cubs may have to try and flip some prospects for salaried guys...

[Crockett]

I am very suspect on both of them...if you look at 2013 free agents, there isn't alot there...so during the off season...to spend some money the Cubs may have to try and flip some prospects for salaried guys...

Finally a like minded guy.

[Luke]

I don't think Szczur is going to progress as much as everybody thinks. He is struggling to hit in high A ball,

He is?

He got off to a slow start (which, I might add, is not a crime for any player at any level of the farm system), but he's hardly been struggling since then. He hit .293/.368/.374 in May in a league where the averages are .254/.323/.371. Both his walk rate (11.9%) and his K rate (14.6%) are very respectable for his league and position.

Baseball America ranked this guy in the Top 70 of prospects in all of baseball for a reason. It is much too early to be writing him off as a bust just yet. Like all prospects, he should be available for a fair price in trade, but I don't think trading him should be any sort of a priority.

[Crockett]

I don't think Szczur is going to progress as much as everybody thinks. He is struggling to hit in high A ball,

He is?

He got off to a slow start (which, I might add, is not a crime for any player at any level of the farm system), but he's hardly been struggling since then. He hit .293/.368/.374 in May in a league where the averages are .254/.323/.371. Both his walk rate (11.9%) and his K rate (14.6%) are very respectable for his league and position.

Baseball America ranked this guy in the Top 70 of prospects in all of baseball for a reason. It is much too early to be writing him off as a bust just yet. Like all prospects, he should be available for a fair price in trade, but I don't think trading him should be any sort of a priority.

Yup, BA had him that high. At least two others barely had him in the Cubs top 10 though. And remember, he's OLD for that league. Meaning...he's physically way more mature than most guys in that league, regardless of the "he played football" card. Oh, and he's slugging .374 in his good month? Yeesh.

[Hector Villanueva]

I don't think Szczur is going to progress as much as everybody thinks. He is struggling to hit in high A ball,

He is?

He got off to a slow start (which, I might add, is not a crime for any player at any level of the farm system), but he's hardly been struggling since then. He hit .293/.368/.374 in May in a league where the averages are .254/.323/.371. Both his walk rate (11.9%) and his K rate (14.6%) are very respectable for his league and position.

Baseball America ranked this guy in the Top 70 of prospects in all of baseball for a reason. It is much too early to be writing him off as a bust just yet. Like all prospects, he should be available for a fair price in trade, but I don't think trading him should be any sort of a priority.

Yup, BA had him that high. At least two others barely had him in the Cubs top 10 though. And remember, he's OLD for that league. Meaning...he's physically way more mature than most guys in that league, regardless of the "he played football" card. Oh, and he's slugging .374 in his good month? Yeesh.

I would be surprised if either Jackson or Sczuzr become everyday OF for any MLB team.

[FFP]

It's hard to employ two great second basemen on the same team. Or two great first basemen is a lot easier to imagine wrestling with right now. But, a crowd of great centerfielders? Naw. You don't get pushed to the bench, just to the next field. But, before then, as noted, so many other variables tend to sort this out. Nice problem to ponder though.

[Luke]

I don't think Szczur is going to progress as much as everybody thinks. He is struggling to hit in high A ball,

He is?

He got off to a slow start (which, I might add, is not a crime for any player at any level of the farm system), but he's hardly been struggling since then. He hit .293/.368/.374 in May in a league where the averages are .254/.323/.371. Both his walk rate (11.9%) and his K rate (14.6%) are very respectable for his league and position.

Baseball America ranked this guy in the Top 70 of prospects in all of baseball for a reason. It is much too early to be writing him off as a bust just yet. Like all prospects, he should be available for a fair price in trade, but I don't think trading him should be any sort of a priority.

Yup, BA had him that high. At least two others barely had him in the Cubs top 10 though. And remember, he's OLD for that league. Meaning...he's physically way more mature than most guys in that league, regardless of the "he played football" card. Oh, and he's slugging .374 in his good month? Yeesh.

Not that old. He turns 23 in July. If he keeps hitting well through June, I think he'll be Double A by his birthday. That's not bad at all.

[Crockett]

I think we fundamentally disagree on what is "good hitting". An OPS under .800 is not good at any level.

[Luke]

I think we fundamentally disagree on what is "good hitting". An OPS under .800 is not good at any level.

I take the nature of the league into account. An OPS of .800 is more significant in a pitchers' league and less significant in a hitters' league. That's why I tend to compare back to league average. All things being equal, I'll take the guy who has an OPS of 1.2x league average over a guy who is 0.9x league average, even if the first guy has an OPS of .770 and the second has one of .815.

All leagues are not the same, so I don't think all numbers from all leagues should be evaluated on the same scale. Context counts.

[Crockett]

Sure it does, but so does the reality that only 10% of hitters at any given level will ever make it to majors. Comparing to league average is comparing him to many other players who won't make it. You take the best 24-30 statistical hitters in the league...how does he compare there? That's the best 2-2.5 hitters from each team.

[Brett]

Sure it does, but so does the reality that only 10% of hitters at any given level will ever make it to majors. Comparing to league average is comparing him to many other players who won't make it. You take the best 24-30 statistical hitters in the league...how does he compare there? That's the best 2-2.5 hitters from each team.

Not for nothing, but how many of those best hitters are potential above-average defensive center fielders? Worth considering that piece, too.