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If Matt Szczur Progresses, What Happens to Brett Jackson?


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#16 Crockett

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 12:56 PM

Including every hitter who has qualified in the FSL, Szczur is 54th in OPS. FSL players who are 22 or younger who have better OPS than Matt Szczur:

N. Castellanos (20) - .401/.469/.556
W. Flores (20) - .330/.371/.543
B. Forsythe (22) - .283/.364/.543
C. Yelich (20) - .276/.354/.519
O. Arcia (21) - .313/.363/.506
C. Asche (22) - .351/.373/.473
S. Rodriguez (22) - .310/.384/.430
D. Dietrich (22) - .262/.341/.471
A. Garcia (21) - .297/.332/.457
M. Ozuna (21) - .259/.324/.461
A. Alcantara (20) - .309/.335/.441
T. Collins (22) - .281/.361/.411
D. Santana (21) - .308/.333/.432
J. Marisnick (21) - .258/.332/.426
M. Knecht (22) - .221/.304/.437
W. Tavor (20) - .285/.364/.376
M. Mahtook (22) - .287/.349/.388
B. Gonzalez (22) - .284/.382/.352
F. Pena (22) - .245/.304/.431
M. Szczur (22) - .267/.359/.374

My point is, he hasn't "hit well"...even for the league. He's done alright, with zero power. As to the "above-average CF", Wrigley has one of the smallest CF's in baseball and CF in Wrigley is significantly easier to play than LF or RF.

#17 Oswego Chris

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 01:03 PM

Wow...this is BN at it's best...a well educated, well researched cordial debate...
Szczur has never excited me,but what do you guys think about Jackson...simply, I see the K rate at triple A as a huge red flag...plus everything I have read projects him as a possible starter in the bigs...not a star

#18 Crockett

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 01:09 PM

Wow...this is BN at it's best...a well educated, well researched cordial debate...
Szczur has never excited me,but what do you guys think about Jackson...simply, I see the K rate at triple A as a huge red flag...plus everything I have read projects him as a possible starter in the bigs...not a star


Jackson just fails to make contact on too many hittable pitches. He isn't Vitters wildly chasing all sorts of crap. Jackson just struggles with bat on ball. And, unfortunately, I don't think that's going to get any better. That's why he fell to the bottom of the 1st round, and it hasn't improved in pro ball.

I vote trade him now to some team that still feels like his tools are superior enough to be worth something.

#19 Hector Villanueva

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 01:11 PM


Wow...this is BN at it's best...a well educated, well researched cordial debate...
Szczur has never excited me,but what do you guys think about Jackson...simply, I see the K rate at triple A as a huge red flag...plus everything I have read projects him as a possible starter in the bigs...not a star


Jackson just fails to make contact on too many hittable pitches. He isn't Vitters wildly chasing all sorts of crap. Jackson just struggles with bat on ball. And, unfortunately, I don't think that's going to get any better. That's why he fell to the bottom of the 1st round, and it hasn't improved in pro ball.

I vote trade him now to some team that still feels like his tools are superior enough to be worth something.


Trading him might be a good idea. Package him to the Mariners for some of those live arms they have.

#20 Crockett

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 01:13 PM



Wow...this is BN at it's best...a well educated, well researched cordial debate...
Szczur has never excited me,but what do you guys think about Jackson...simply, I see the K rate at triple A as a huge red flag...plus everything I have read projects him as a possible starter in the bigs...not a star


Jackson just fails to make contact on too many hittable pitches. He isn't Vitters wildly chasing all sorts of crap. Jackson just struggles with bat on ball. And, unfortunately, I don't think that's going to get any better. That's why he fell to the bottom of the 1st round, and it hasn't improved in pro ball.

I vote trade him now to some team that still feels like his tools are superior enough to be worth something.


Trading him might be a good idea. Package him to the Mariners for some of those live arms they have.


Yep, exactly. Except we don't want to get Pineda'd!

#21 Luke

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 02:36 PM

I don't see too many folks projecting stardom for Jackson. Quality, average total outfielder... Yes. Maybe one All-Star game in a career year... Sure. Guy you can safely pencil into the lineup for a decade... Possibly. Someone that opposing pitchers fear... Absolutely not.

#22 Joker

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 02:39 PM


Sure it does, but so does the reality that only 10% of hitters at any given level will ever make it to majors. Comparing to league average is comparing him to many other players who won't make it. You take the best 24-30 statistical hitters in the league...how does he compare there? That's the best 2-2.5 hitters from each team.

Not for nothing, but how many of those best hitters are potential above-average defensive center fielders? Worth considering that piece, too.


True, Brett but I think we have allowed ourselves to somehwat believe that BJax and Szczur both will be above average offensively and defensively. Kind of the way we bought into the Corey Patterson and Felix Pie hype in recent years. Let's just pray that one of them works out well enough. Both is having our cake and eating it too.
The Outfield is Eating Andre Dawson!

#23 Hector Villanueva

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 03:21 PM



Sure it does, but so does the reality that only 10% of hitters at any given level will ever make it to majors. Comparing to league average is comparing him to many other players who won't make it. You take the best 24-30 statistical hitters in the league...how does he compare there? That's the best 2-2.5 hitters from each team.

Not for nothing, but how many of those best hitters are potential above-average defensive center fielders? Worth considering that piece, too.


True, Brett but I think we have allowed ourselves to somehwat believe that BJax and Szczur both will be above average offensively and defensively. Kind of the way we bought into the Corey Patterson and Felix Pie hype in recent years. Let's just pray that one of them works out well enough. Both is having our cake and eating it too.


If Cubs history proves anything none of these prospects (with the exception of Rizzo) will have impactful careers with the Cubs or any other MLB team. Sad but true

#24 rcleven

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Posted 01 June 2012 - 08:20 PM




Sure it does, but so does the reality that only 10% of hitters at any given level will ever make it to majors. Comparing to league average is comparing him to many other players who won't make it. You take the best 24-30 statistical hitters in the league...how does he compare there? That's the best 2-2.5 hitters from each team.

Not for nothing, but how many of those best hitters are potential above-average defensive center fielders? Worth considering that piece, too.


True, Brett but I think we have allowed ourselves to somehwat believe that BJax and Szczur both will be above average offensively and defensively. Kind of the way we bought into the Corey Patterson and Felix Pie hype in recent years. Let's just pray that one of them works out well enough. Both is having our cake and eating it too.


If Cubs history proves anything none of these prospects (with the exception of Rizzo) will have impactful careers with the Cubs or any other MLB team. Sad but true





Sure it does, but so does the reality that only 10% of hitters at any given level will ever make it to majors. Comparing to league average is comparing him to many other players who won't make it. You take the best 24-30 statistical hitters in the league...how does he compare there? That's the best 2-2.5 hitters from each team.

Not for nothing, but how many of those best hitters are potential above-average defensive center fielders? Worth considering that piece, too.


True, Brett but I think we have allowed ourselves to somehwat believe that BJax and Szczur both will be above average offensively and defensively. Kind of the way we bought into the Corey Patterson and Felix Pie hype in recent years. Let's just pray that one of them works out well enough. Both is having our cake and eating it too.


If Cubs history proves anything none of these prospects (with the exception of Rizzo) will have impactful careers with the Cubs or any other MLB team. Sad but true

I pretty much agree. I really don't think the future right or center fielders are currently in the Cub system.If they don't come in trade they will have to be acquired thru free agency.

#25 chirogerg1

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 02:34 PM

If Szczur and Jackson both hit as well as they are capable of doing, they could certainly play center and left in a few years. Where this becomes tricky is after monday night's first round. If the Cubs take Almora (which by most indications is likely), this turns into a very good problem, where the cubs could flip Szczur or Jackson with somebody else in a trade to bring in a top pitching prospect or a young but established major leaguer.

#26 Hector Villanueva

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 12:07 PM

If Szczur and Jackson both hit as well as they are capable of doing, they could certainly play center and left in a few years. Where this becomes tricky is after monday night's first round. If the Cubs take Almora (which by most indications is likely), this turns into a very good problem, where the cubs could flip Szczur or Jackson with somebody else in a trade to bring in a top pitching prospect or a young but established major leaguer.


The chances that all 3 make the bigs are slim. BJax reminds me of a young Dejesus with a lesser grasp of the strike zone. If I had to bet I would say Sczuzr never makes it out of Iowa, Jackson is a 5th outfielder at best and Almora who knows?? I would like to see what % of high school position players drafted in the first round that have solid careers in the bigs. Has to be pretty low

#27 ced landrum

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 08:12 AM

Szczur's OPS would be of greater concern to me if he wasn't projected to be a leadoff hitter. I know it can be a valuable stat, but his OBP in itself is more important to me for him.

The thing to like about him is that he will develop more power. He is young in terms of devoting full time to baseball. he will get better in every facet of the game as he plays more.

#28 chirogerg1

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 11:07 AM

If Jackson is having a tough time making contact and Szczur is tearing up the minors, some GM would probably cough up a Colby Rasmus-like package for Jackson.

#29 chirogerg1

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Posted 06 June 2012 - 11:28 AM


If Szczur and Jackson both hit as well as they are capable of doing, they could certainly play center and left in a few years. Where this becomes tricky is after monday night's first round. If the Cubs take Almora (which by most indications is likely), this turns into a very good problem, where the cubs could flip Szczur or Jackson with somebody else in a trade to bring in a top pitching prospect or a young but established major leaguer.


The chances that all 3 make the bigs are slim. BJax reminds me of a young Dejesus with a lesser grasp of the strike zone. If I had to bet I would say Sczuzr never makes it out of Iowa, Jackson is a 5th outfielder at best and Almora who knows?? I would like to see what % of high school position players drafted in the first round that have solid careers in the bigs. Has to be pretty low


The thing is they don't need to make the bigs. What I'm saying is if Szczur can turn in a good season and his value goes up, he could be part of a trade to get a good young pitcher.

We must have completely different opinions of BJax. The odds of him making it to the bigs is about 99.99%. A 5th OF?!?! This kid is good. He's 23, starting to really pull it together in AAA. Strikeouts are just part of his game. He walks a lot too and hits the ball hard with great gap power. With his speed, he can play center and as long as he gets on base close to .400, he can steal bags and score runs. I think that he will be at least a consistent .280 hitter with solid power that starts every game and makes 2 all-star games in a 12 year career.

#30 Hector Villanueva

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Posted 10 June 2012 - 10:27 AM



If Szczur and Jackson both hit as well as they are capable of doing, they could certainly play center and left in a few years. Where this becomes tricky is after monday night's first round. If the Cubs take Almora (which by most indications is likely), this turns into a very good problem, where the cubs could flip Szczur or Jackson with somebody else in a trade to bring in a top pitching prospect or a young but established major leaguer.


The chances that all 3 make the bigs are slim. BJax reminds me of a young Dejesus with a lesser grasp of the strike zone. If I had to bet I would say Sczuzr never makes it out of Iowa, Jackson is a 5th outfielder at best and Almora who knows?? I would like to see what % of high school position players drafted in the first round that have solid careers in the bigs. Has to be pretty low


The thing is they don't need to make the bigs. What I'm saying is if Szczur can turn in a good season and his value goes up, he could be part of a trade to get a good young pitcher.

We must have completely different opinions of BJax. The odds of him making it to the bigs is about 99.99%. A 5th OF?!?! This kid is good. He's 23, starting to really pull it together in AAA. Strikeouts are just part of his game. He walks a lot too and hits the ball hard with great gap power. With his speed, he can play center and as long as he gets on base close to .400, he can steal bags and score runs. I think that he will be at least a consistent .280 hitter with solid power that starts every game and makes 2 all-star games in a 12 year career.


I hope that is the case but history has shown more often than not Cubs position prospects don't excel to the level you and lots of other Cubs fans are expecting. Jackson's low average and high strike out total are a red flag to me. Time will tell but I would not be surprised to see Jackson fizzle out a la Felix Pie.




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