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Brett

Member Since 23 Aug 2011
Offline Last Active Yesterday, 05:38 PM
*****

#1138 CUBS ALL-TIME CRYPE TEAM!

Posted by Brett on 16 September 2011 - 09:23 AM

I totally thought this was going to be a thread about Cubs players as gang members.


#1036 Starlin Castro

Posted by Brett on 13 September 2011 - 07:51 AM

Sounds like you just said "Wait until next year!"

I'm busted.

This organization has a lot of upside potential.


#1030 Starlin Castro

Posted by Brett on 12 September 2011 - 04:44 PM


. Poor mgmt just can't escape this team.

Hopefully that all changes next year.

I feel good about the future. I guess that's what makes me a Cubs fan...


#986 Would you be Ok with the Cubs Rebuilding?

Posted by Brett on 10 September 2011 - 07:58 PM

I'm very on board with a rebuild, even if it takes more than one year. I think, given the Cubs' resources, it shouldn't take more than one year, though. Let Ramirez and Pena walk. If Dempster doesn't want to be a part of a crappy, young team in 2012, let him walk, too. Save some money this year, play any kid who has any kind of reasonable chance of being a starter down the road.

And then spend big on pitching in 2013.


So what FA moves would you make this year?


If there were any chance to get Fielder or Pujols on a five-year deal, I'd be on board with that (because it's not about 2012, it's about 2013 through 2016). Otherwise, I'd pick up a pitcher whom I thought would remain a consistent, decent mid-rotation option for the next several years (a guy like Buerhle, though not necessarily him). I'd consider Yu Darvish if he's posted.

That's about all I'd explore for 2012 on the free agent market.


#973 Would you be Ok with the Cubs Rebuilding?

Posted by Brett on 10 September 2011 - 07:12 AM

I'm very on board with a rebuild, even if it takes more than one year. I think, given the Cubs' resources, it shouldn't take more than one year, though. Let Ramirez and Pena walk. If Dempster doesn't want to be a part of a crappy, young team in 2012, let him walk, too. Save some money this year, play any kid who has any kind of reasonable chance of being a starter down the road.

And then spend big on pitching in 2013.


#859 Starlin Castro

Posted by Brett on 07 September 2011 - 11:42 AM


I'd be leary to give him big money until he truly has a breakout year.. barely over..300 with single digit HR's & double digit errors isn't enough to justify a big payday, yet.. I absolutely think he'll get there but he's not "there" yet.

So leading the league in hits isn't break out enough for you?

He's also leading the league in at bats. Just sayin'.


#854 Hooray - Someone Articulates My Beef with WAR and UZR

Posted by Brett on 07 September 2011 - 09:57 AM

I like to think I'm a stats guy, but, for whatever reason, I've never been able to get into WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which is supposed to be "THE STAT." It is designed to a universal stat that reduces every player to a value (above the mythical "replacement player"), which can be compared to every other player. Pretty handy.

But, as I said, it just hasn't looked ... right to me. WAR frequently tells me that Player X is better than Player Y, when a review of their stats tells me that just can't be right. I have tended to be content to let other people fight the battle when I say things like "meh, WAR doesn't tell the whole story." Mostly because there are only so many hours in the day, and the vast majority of mine are spent obsessing about the Cubs' roster and GM search. I don't like writing about things that I don't understand to the nth degree.

Well, someone took up the cause and laid out a beautiful discussion and take-down of WAR, based on an even more disliked advanced stat: UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). The latter is supposed to be the best of the advanced fielding stats, but is wildly, wildly prone to inexplicable swings - Marlon Byrd was one of the worst defensive center fielders in 2009 in Arlington, and then suddenly (at age 32), he was one of the best defensive center fielders in 2010 in Chicago. I just don't buy those kind of absurd, inexplicable swings in something that, by age 32, is a relative constant.

Ok, enough throat-clearing. Here's the post from It's About the Money. Warning: it's long and dense. Totally worth it if you're wading into the advanced metric stuff, though.

An exemplary conclusion paragraph:

While I admit the difficulty of building a model that accounts for the effect a pairing like Braun/Fielder or Pujols/Holliday has on the rest of the lineup, this is one area in which I find the conventional wisdom to be irrefutable. While I applaud WAR (and other metrics) for aiding in our appreciation of defense and baserunning, it’s beyond asinine to conclude that Ellsbury is twice as valuable as Fielder. Too often WAR is used as a means of comparing oranges to apples. One of the things that makes baseball great is the diversity of the fruit basket. WAR give incredible weight to scarcity of shortstops, but no weight to the scarcity of pitcher-intimidating, strategy-altering cleanup hitters, which I see as a form of reverse discrimination.




#588 Starlin Castro

Posted by Brett on 03 September 2011 - 12:21 PM

Eh - signing guys to long-term deals pre-arbitration tends to be a good risk for smaller market clubs, but a poor one for big market clubs who can easily afford to pay arbitration raises, and a free agent contract. Signing him now is a high risk, high reward proposition. Signing him later is a low risk, medium reward proposition. I can see why small market clubs take the risk; not sure the Cubs need to.


#391 If you were GM you would....?

Posted by Brett on 02 September 2011 - 12:17 PM


1. Dump Zambrano for whatever I could get.
2. Ditto Soriano.
3. Let Ramirez walk.
4. Strongly consider moving Byrd, Dempster, and any other older player not under contract for 2013, at the trade deadline.
5. Suffer through a crappy 2012 season with the knowledge that my organization will be in a much better position to strike in 2013.

I would probably be fired within two months.


Actually I agree 100%, though I would change #5 and bring up Brett Jackson to see what he can do in the bigs.


That's a part of number 5. :)


#340 If you were GM you would....?

Posted by Brett on 02 September 2011 - 08:38 AM

1. Dump Zambrano for whatever I could get.
2. Ditto Soriano.
3. Let Ramirez walk.
4. Strongly consider moving Byrd, Dempster, and any other older player not under contract for 2013, at the trade deadline.
5. Suffer through a crappy 2012 season with the knowledge that my organization will be in a much better position to strike in 2013.

I would probably be fired within two months.


#184 Welcome to the Bleacher Nation Message Board

Posted by Brett on 01 September 2011 - 06:45 AM

This place is amazing. I am just wondering what's next Brett? Walking on water? Curing cancer? Feeding the masses with unlimited brats and beer?

I'm going to sign Alfonso Soriano to an 8 year, $128 million contract to be a moderator.


#183 Welcome to the Bleacher Nation Message Board

Posted by Brett on 01 September 2011 - 06:42 AM

Ace, the web version of this forum on my iPhone doesn't work. I can see the top level directories of each section, but tapping on any or all leads me to a gray screen. It might by my old-ass iPhone (think it's the 1.5G model), but viewing the non-mobile version is fine.

Same issue with my iphone 4 - think this is a continuation of the problem with Apple iOS, this should be improved with the upcoming iOS 5.0 update coming out soon.

It's unclear at this point if it's an IPB issue or an iOS issue. Either way, you're not crazy - the mobile version doesn't work right now. I meant to turn it off pre-launch. Sorry about that. The full version of the site, as you noted, should work all right for now.


#77 Parks and Recreation

Posted by Brett on 31 August 2011 - 06:09 PM

Im agreeing with goat. South park is great and I have never seen PnR. I also enjoy True Blood.

I know there not on anymore but Lost and Seinfeld are probably the best TV shows ever made


LOST is the greatest show in the history of the universe.


#47 Welcome to the Bleacher Nation Message Board

Posted by Brett on 31 August 2011 - 06:32 AM

All right. So let's try this message board thing again.

Welcome to the board, which I hope you'll find to your liking. There are an insane number of bells and whistles that I'm still wrapping my head around, but I'm a big fan so far.

In case you haven't figured it out, this is the place for a little more free-flowing discussions than the blog allows (though I do hope our "comment" discussions will continue), and it's the place for you to start your own discussions, rather than always waiting for an on-point blog post.

A few things:

(1) This board is subject to the Terms of Service, and your continued use means you've agreed to those terms; and

(2) You all know I'm not a fan of heavy-handed moderating. Please don't make me regret that. Let's all be responsible adults and not do things like post illicit or copyrighted material. Let's not get in stupid fights. Let's not call each other names (save where absolutely necessary and/or funny). Let's try to use some semblance of sentence structure, grammar, and punctuation. Help continue making this a place we're all proud of.

(3) You must agree that if you post something really awesome here, I can promote it to the front page of the site (with all appropriate credit), unless you explicitly say, "no way, Brett, don't post this really awesome thing that I wrote!"




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