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jkppkj

Member Since 12 Aug 2013
Offline Last Active Today, 01:30 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Visualizing the stupidity of bunting with a quick analysis

14 April 2014 - 03:10 PM

Here's something that I never understood about bunting.  When on defense, a manager will gladly trade a run for an out to avoid a big inning, but when on offense, that same manager will give up an out just to advance a runner one base, and thus take his own team out of a possible big inning.  Makes no sense at all to me. 

 

^ THIS ^


In Topic: Visualizing the stupidity of bunting with a quick analysis

14 April 2014 - 03:09 PM

You also have to factor that with a runner on third, a successful sac bunt will always score 1 run.

 

However, the only times you NEED that one run and only that run, the defense sells out on the sac bunt...thus making it much more difficult to sac bunt.

 

The run scoring is factored in.  For the successful cases I adjusted it as follows: for RE24 I've added 1 (you've got the run so it's part of that expected output) in any of the cases where there was a runner on 3rd and for RP, it becomes 1 if you succeed, as success if 100% chance that you score for my simplified successful bunt = perfect bunt.


In Topic: Cubs v. Pirates - April 2, 2014 (TV: CSN+)

02 April 2014 - 07:44 PM

It feels like it's going to take 17 2/3 innings, 0-17 RISP, and a review for every run scored. Hope does not spring eternal


In Topic: Cubs v. Pirates - April 2, 2014 (TV: CSN+)

02 April 2014 - 07:42 PM

MLB gameday says CHC Chal, is there a challenge on the DP?


In Topic: Cubs v. Pirates - April 2, 2014 (TV: CSN+)

02 April 2014 - 07:41 PM

I'm feeling lucky to not be able to see this


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