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T C

Member Since 31 Aug 2011
Offline Last Active Jan 03 2014 06:30 PM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Careful we don't get caught up in the hype

09 June 2013 - 05:14 PM

I'm not sure there is any hype around Vitters and Jackson anymore....

 

Also, re: Vogelbach:

 

"Out of every 100 kids drafted and signed, four make it to the major leagues"

 

This is extraordinarily misleading. You're saying don't get caught up in the hype about a guy who was drafted in the second round because of a bunch of guys drafted in the 30th round never made it. Why get excited about any prospects if nearly all of them fail?

 

Yes, Vogelbach is slow. But he's a first baseman with exceptional bat speed generated with a short stroke and the huge power to put a lot of balls over the fence. I've also seen Vogelbach a lot, and I've been impressed with his bat. He needs a lot of work, but that's why he's in A ball right now.

 

He also has great makeup, something that I don't believe gets discussed enough. It's not just that he has lost all that weight. I sat on him for an entire series last weekend as was amazed at how he responded to a few things:

 

He weakly grounded out to the pitcher on a hittable pitch, busted his ass down the line, and was clearly upset with himself. He then spent the next inning talking to himself. He had a couple of other at bats with poor outcomes and did the same thing. Vogelbach is very hard on himself at times.

 

But then the next day he came out and had a great day, with a home run and a double into the left centerfield gap. He bounced back from a day where he was deep in his own head with a great game. That means a lot to me.

 

Maybe don't buy anyone telling you that Vogelbach is going to be a superstar, but I think he has a great shot of at least getting to the majors


In Topic: The 80 Rating - A project for anyone with more time than me

23 May 2013 - 09:55 PM

 

 

 

I usually see Sano listed with a hit tool in the 4.5 to 5.5 range. 3 sounds awfully low.

The 3 is Sano current rating according to on http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ts/watch/y2013/ they say his future rating is 5 though. Might not have made that clear.

I wouldn't pay much attention to MLB's scouting stuff. If you're looking for the tool grades on top minor leaguers, BP has them for most of their top 10 prospect lists, and BA has this: http://www.baseballa...13/2614739.html
Helpful link. Thanks, Tommy. Would you say those are raw or in game numbers?

 

No clue. Power is probably raw, utility is directly tied to hit tool anyway. speed raw/not a whole ton of difference there anyway. defense/arm are both in-game things. Honestly can't tell if these are projections or current scores.


In Topic: Is this the most important draft pick ever?

23 May 2013 - 09:48 PM

I might be the only person on the internet who feels this way, but I disagree. The farm system, though struggling at the moment in a lot of places, is still pretty strong. The core on the major league team isn't terrible and could sort-of contend next season with a few good moves. If the #2 pick comes through and is a star, it's a great thing for the team and could push them over the top in a few years, but if he totally busts it's not like it sets the organization back half a decade.

 

If the talent available at the front-end of the draft were exceptional, I'm sure I'd feel differently, but a lot of writers have regularly said that there are no superstars in this draft. Appel profiles as a good 2, but not an Ace. Gray has more upside but a significantly lower floor and needs a lot to go right for him to reach Appel's rather reachable ceiling. Bryant might be a 30 homer guy, but he's much more likely to end up in a corner outfield spot than 3B and hasn't seen much quality pitching yet, calling even more questions about his hit tool into the discussion. Not one of these guys is a 6 WAR+ guy, a monster impact player that changes the course of a team's history. They're all likely going to be good ballplayers, but a team of the Cubs' financial standing can go get 4 win players. If the Cubs hit at the top of this draft, awesome fantastic great to see it, but it's not going to derail their progress if they do not.


In Topic: The 80 Rating - A project for anyone with more time than me

19 May 2013 - 02:44 AM

 

And Mike aren't the talent scouts smart enough not to rate a player this high just because he's crushing weak competition? Their job is to assess the future MLB success of propects and they don't sprinkle 80-power ratings on every hard hitting player (or maybe they do that's what I'm hunting for here).


I'd say it would be easier to judge talent in a tough, competitive baseball conference. Hitting 30 homers, over .300, and a 1:1 k/bb is a great feat as an individual, but even better when it's done against top athletes. Don't get me wrong, players like Josh Hamilton feast on bad pitching and have made a career out of it, but you'd like to see those numbers against ranked opponents.

 

 

Exactly. It's very difficult to judge the utility of the hit tool and, with it, the power tool against weak competition. Until you see a guy face a bunch of top-level pitching, you can't really judge his ability to hit breaking balls and pitchers who can command their stuff very well.

 

You can, however, judge the command, control, and raw stuff of a pitcher no matter who they are facing.


In Topic: The 80 Rating - A project for anyone with more time than me

19 May 2013 - 02:40 AM

 

If there aren't busts, flame outs, or bums that were given this heavy solid medal prior to the draft then why isn't Bryant EVERYONES top pick?

 

Because of the mythos of the ace.  Aces are the quarterbacks of baseball.  They get the headlines.  The game, for a lot of the media, revolves around them.  

 

 

This touches on it, but it is really a much more complicated issue than that. If Bryant were a sure-fire 3B, he'd be regarded even higher by most. However, many people think Bryant is a corner outfielder, and that greatly harms his value. There is also concern over the quality of pitching he is facing, and that puts doubt in the minds of many. It's easy to judge pitching in a vacuum, but judging hitters depends greatly on who they are facing and where are they are playing.

 

Guys like Appel have the "Ace" potential tag thrown on them, and while that does generate media hype, it's for a good reason. There are only about 10 Aces in baseball, and the only way to acquire them is through the draft or a trade that depletes your farm system. A guy who can throw 220+ innings with a high-2's/low-3's ERA is an extremely rare commodity, and has the ability to provide enormous value to your ballclub. Bryant may be low-ish-risk and good-upside, but you can find those players in free agency and through trades. Aces and #2's are extraordinarily rare and very difficult to come by, and if you get the chance to acquire one you're going to be very tempted to take that risk.

 

TL;DR: Aces are not available in free agency. Power-hitting corner outfielders are. I guess I really just take issue with you calling it a "mythos" in what reads as a mocking tone.


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