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T C

Member Since 31 Aug 2011
Offline Last Active Jan 03 2014 06:30 PM
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#45845 The 80 Rating - A project for anyone with more time than me

Posted by T C on 19 May 2013 - 02:07 AM

 

I usually see Sano listed with a hit tool in the 4.5 to 5.5 range.  3 sounds awfully low.

The 3 is Sano current rating according to on http://mlb.mlb.com/m...ts/watch/y2013/  they say his future rating is 5 though.  Might not have made that clear.

 

 

I wouldn't pay much attention to MLB's scouting stuff. If you're looking for the tool grades on top minor leaguers, BP has them for most of their top 10 prospect lists, and BA has this: http://www.baseballa...13/2614739.html




#43402 Time to trade Darwin Barney...

Posted by T C on 24 April 2013 - 04:38 PM

Mike Taylor (no relation), you seem to have this belief that other teams are just going to give away their best players for no freakin reason.

 

"Ben Zobrist + David Price for - 2B/SS Barney, C Navarro (if they're in playoff contention), OF Jackson, 1B Vogelbach, RHSP Struck (or Loux), and OF Silva (or IF Lake)."

 

How in the hell would this trade help the Rays?! I like how you only include Navarro if they're in playoff contention, which they'll totally be in if they were ever in position to trade Price and Zorilla. Let's look at this from a logical perspective (I'll go slow so you don't hurt yourself thinking)

 

Ben Zobrist - Average of 7 rWAR from 2009-2012, arguably TB's best position player

David Price - Average of 4.8 rWAR from 2010-2012, future $200mil Ace pitcher, arguably top 3 pitcher in baseball

 

Just right there, you're looking at ~ 12 wins that the Rays would be trading away JUST IN 2013, a staggering sum, valued at roughly $72 million in 2013 at $6 mil/win. If they're in a playoff race, that's impossible to give away. Over the rest of their contract, subtracting .5 WAR in 2013 for Zobrist and 1 full WAR in each subsequent year, and keeping Price's even since he's in his prime, this is what the value breakdown looks like assuming the trade is at the all star break (assuming: no Price extension is signed, $6mil/win, no inflation of value of the win or the dollar):

 

2013:

~3 wins from Zobrist for $2.75mil, ~3 wins from Price for $5 mil. Surplus Value: $28.25 mil

 

2014:

~6 wins from Zobrist for $7mil, ~5 wins from Price for $16 mil. Surplus: $44 mil

 

2015:

~5 wins from Zobrist for $7.5 mil. Surplus: $22.5 mil

 

Total Surplus: $94.75 million

 

What do you propose the Rays get in return? Multiple top 50 prospects? 8-10 legit prospects with one very good one headlining the deal? James Shields alone fetched a top-3 prospect and a top-50 SP prospect, and is a far inferior pitcher to Price, so you'd think they'd be getting a king's ransom for Price AND Zobrist

 

Darwin Barney - Average of 3 rWAR in 2 seasons as a starter

Dioner Navarro - Replacement level player, zero value, especially to a team with a top-2 defensive catcher in baseball already

Brett Jackson - Not a top 100 prospect anymore, floor is total bust, low ceiling, TB has Jennings already

Dan Vogelbach - Is like 3 years away from majors, not a top 100 prospect, especially as he's likely a DH only type

Struck - Almost completely worthless, ceiling of an inning eating 5th starter (same for Loux)

Silva - non-prospect, cannot take a walk, little-to-no power. Lake is a decent prospect but has yet to turn loud tools into baseball skills

 

Victor Wang has done some great research into the value of prospects here, and history has borne that, while teams are not running precisely on his numbers, he's in the right ball park, so I'll be using his numbers here to demonstrate the value in your deal.

 

Barney is, realistically, a 2.5-3 win player now at age 27, and is under control through 2016. At 3 wins at age 27 & 28, 2.5 at 29, he's worth $57 million (and only if you buy the lofty defensive numbers he's posted). During that time, he'll likely make around $15 million (gold gloves are worth a lot in arbitration), so he's a surplus of $42 million. Navarro isn't worth anything. Jackson is a B- prospect, so he's worth ~$3mil. Vogelbach is a B prospect, and worth about $5mil. Struck and Loux are old C prospects, so worth ~$1.5mil. Silva has no value. Lake is a C+ prospect, so he's worth about $1 mil.

 

Your deal's surplus value? $52.5 million. There's a $42.25 million dollar balance in favor of the Cubs, and that's assuming Price signs no extension and Darwin Barney is the best defensive 2B in years. It also ignores that quantity over quality is not something teams are a fan of. Your deal is so insanely far off that teams would boycott the Cubs front office if they ever presented that deal to the Rays.

 

What would look like a good deal for Zobrist+Price, assuming no extensions?

 

Barney - $42 mil surplus (this figure, the more I think about it, is absurdly high. Not because Darwin isn't a 3 win player, but because it ignores that teams pay much less for defensive wins than they do offensive wins. I'd probably bump Darwin down into the $20 mil maximum just based on what he'd probably get as a FA right now, but I have to play by my own rules)

Baez (Top 11-25 prospect) - $25 mil

Amora (Top 25-50 prospect) - $23.4 mil

Vogelbach (B Hitter) - $5mil

 

And that's without considering how much teams value the right to sign Price. For a team like the Cubs, the money is almost not a concern compared to how big of an opportunity it would be to get a top-flight starter on-board. How much is that worth to teams? $25 mil? More? If so, you're throwing Jackson, Lake and others into the trade too.

 

A trade for Zobrist AND Price would be prohibitively expensive in terms of prospects. That trade up there is only valid if the Rays like Barney, too, which there is no guarantee of. If they don't, Jackson, Lake, Acantara, and many, many others would have to be thrown into the mix as well




#41824 BNFL Week Two Review - Its Just A Small Sample Size, Everything's Going t...

Posted by T C on 14 April 2013 - 10:41 PM

A week of rain delays really hurt some teams this week. It's still early in the season, and now is certainly not the time to hit the panic button, but a few of you should probably have your finger hovering over it by now. Last week's powerhouses, for the most part, had trouble repeating, proving that MG really does need help when Verlander and Felix don't both go twice. The lopsided two-start distribution will probably clear itself up here in the next week or so, so that will dictate the outcome of much fewer games in the future. Also, uh, my team is off to a blistering start, but I'm not gonna start gloating yet.

Best 3 Teams of the Week
  • Bob Brenly Memorial Squad, 539.66
  • The Waving Wendells, 532.17
  • The Hamburglars, 471.67
Worst 3 Teams of the Week
  • Angels in the Troutfield, 187.99
  • Wanted: Cookies, 212.34
  • Scherzer Schmashers, 214.35
Best 3 Hitters of the Week
  • Prince Fielder, The Waving Wendells, 84
  • Robinson Cano, Cheeseburger Walrus, 63
  • Chris Carter, Bob Brenly Memorial Squad, 60
Worst 3 Hitters of the Week
  • Rickie Weeks, Stinky Pete, -6
  • Tyler Flowers, 23ryan, -5
  • Lonnie Chisenhall, Scherzer Schmashers, -5
Best 3 Pitchers of the Week
  • Clay Buchholz, The Waving Wendells, 90
  • Paul Maholm, Hot 4 Rizzo!, 85
  • Matt Harvey, 23ryan, 84
Worst 3 Pitchers of the Week
  • Jonathan Broxton, We Will Buck You!, -30
  • Jarrod Parker, Cheeseburger Walrus, -27
  • Joel Hanrahan, Cheeseburger Walrus, -21
Closest Matchup: Soler Power (323.16) over Cheeseburger Walrus (299.49), 23.67 point difference
Biggest Blowout: The Waving Wendells (532.17) over Wanted: Cookies (212.34), 319.83 point difference
Strongest Loss: Fromthemitten's Team (Name Censored Cause I Don't Want A Shitshow In This Thread) (418.16)
Weakest Win: Soler Power (323.16)


#37969 The Theo Misconception

Posted by T C on 23 March 2013 - 09:47 PM

Dude, you can't just point at high payrolls and declare that the Front Office isn't doing anything because they've been given money. There's plenty of teams every year with huge payrolls that fail to sniff .500, and plenty more teams with miniscule payrolls that make it into the playoffs. Based on your argument ("no team within 20 MILLION DOLLARS! 20 MILLION!) the Yankees should've won almost every title in the last decade. They didn't because it isn't all about money.

There's also downsides to running a team with a high payroll. Pressure is very strong, both from ownership, media, and the fans, to never have a down year. When your analytics department comes to you and says it's a good time to sell off pieces because you're likely headed for a steep decline, you can't. Rebuilding, or even a lone .500 year while the team waits on some prospects to get acclimated and a FA to hit the market, is not acceptable. Your FO needs you to patch up holes immediately, and you make signings like John Lackey's deal, or you trade a bunch of prospects for Matt Garza to try and stop the bleeding. If you do somehow find yourself in a rebuilding process (or in a season after you exited the playoffs early), every Big Name FA you don't sign represents tens/hundreds of thousands of fans abandoning their confidence in you, so you feel increasingly strong public pressure to flinch and give a 32 year old Albert Pujols 10yrs/250mil. Money may give you the flexibility to eat one/two bad contracts at any one time, but all the pressure from fans, ownership, and media (always worse in large cities like New York, Boston, and Chicago) pushes GMs towards a ton of deals they'd rather not make.

[Also, minor quibble, but the Scott Baker deal is not a "terrible" signing. He's making $5mil this year, and while a smaller market team might have trouble absorbing that loss (an argument that's increasingly tough to make in the current age of huge local and league TV contracts), it was a very good gamble on the health of Baker. They obviously understood the risks, but he could've been a 2-3 win pitcher if he'd been healthy by mid-April, and worth a lot in trade or possibly gotten a friendly deal from Baker for 2014 & beyond. And if Baker doesn't come back until June and only gives you a win or so, well, you got about the value you paid for.

Furthermore, and I don't know if you're one of these people, but a lot of people ripped the current FO for not spending a bunch of money in FA. But now you're/they're going to rip them over two $5mil contracts handed out? You specificaly Morken, can't on one hand call out guys like Theo for not being good executives because they have financial flexibility, and then call them even worse because they use a very small bit of that financial flexibility to take a calculated risk to acquire talent, especially in a rebuilding period.]

Less minor quibble: the plan most certainly is not "not win until the Cubs' payroll exceeds everyone elses." For many reasons. 1) not likely the Cubs will have the ability to spend in the $189million range until after 2019 and a new TV deal 2) the Dodgers are going to be spending more than everyone else anyway 3) most importantly, the plan is specifically not get stuck with all the bad contracts you just said they're able to get away with, at least until the minor league system starts producing some MLB talent to go along with it. Those contracts block prospects, eat payroll you want to throw at FAs when some prospects start seeing MLB PT, and leave you with aging and oft injured players like the Yankees. I don't know where you got the idea "The Cubs Way" is just eventually spend much more than everyone else, cause not a single move they've made so far appears to support that idea.


#36193 What are the returns going to be for the Cubs' trades?

Posted by T C on 19 February 2013 - 10:39 PM

"Darwin Barney, Scott Baker, Scott Hairston, Robert Whitenack, and Dillon Maples to Rays for:
David Price"

Posted Image


#36091 Is integrity subjective?

Posted by T C on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 PM

Really good points from MG and Tommy. I tend to think along the lines of what Tommy said (something about that name just produces reay smart people), that Integrity is subjective, but only because it depends on what you define as right or wrong. That's really tough with baseball and steriods (which is where this topic came from), and I personally don't think a guy taking something that potentially increases his earning power by tens of millions of dollars is "wrong". It's definitely not right, but I personaly just can't fault a guy for trying to make that kind of money at the cost of...what? increased risk of cancer later on? the dashed hopes of 12 year olds and 12-year-old minded men around the country? There's no extreme wrong that comes from the consequence that makes the act "wrong" to me


#33257 Jason Parks 670 Interview

Posted by T C on 07 November 2012 - 11:52 PM

Hey everyone, Jason Parks just conducted an interview on 670 The Score, and I thought I'd quickly write up some of the things he discussed:

He referred to the system as good, mentioned that the system could improve to top-10 or even top-5 status within a year. Also said that fans in the past haven't been able to look at system during down years, and have been sold a few "lemons" in the past.

Kane County is going to be stacked this coming year. Entire Boise infield will be there, with Candleario and Marco Hernandez being two guys who will be intriguing to watch. Vogelbach is going to put butts in seats at KC, who he says "hits ball a country mile", "has no defensive value", "body screams DH", "hard-working, good makeup, very fun to watch". Parks sees a MLB future for Vogelbach.

Almora will also be in KC to start next year, which started the Baez/Almora discussion. According to Parks: Baez might have as much upside as anyone in all of minors, "scary bat speed, monster bat speed, halloween bat speed"; has a bad approach at moment that will take a while to correct; will take him long to develop because of that bad approach. On Almora: "just a baseball player (emphasis his)"; has some of the best baseball instincts in all of the game, ceiling of all-star CF, has a "beautiful, Cal RIpken-like feel for the game", compared this feel further to guys like Jeter.

On Soler: needs to go to Daytona to start 2013, where pitchers can expand zone on him. Needs to be challenged, needs to be forced to be selective; has "now" power, physically mature, advanced on many levels; "not long for the minors". Probably wont be truly tested until he hits AA.

On Pitching: upside in system is "big". Says he's probably out on a limb with his rankings of Johnson, Underwood, Maples ("give me the guys with huge ceilings over the more polished guys any day of the week"); Underwood has massive arm strength; Maples has "monster stuff", including mid-90's FB and mid-80's 12-6 hammer curve. Says reports from scouts and friends at instructs really influenced his ranking on the pitchers on second half of list, who showed great things there. Tony Zych should be in 2013 pen at some point, quick mover because of one pitch that allows him to run through minors, his fastball that is easy gas that jumps on hitters. Wouldn't put him in a closer role this year, because he'd be a rookie, but hears Zych is "a hoss", has mentality to close. Parks also sees McNutt in the Cubs pen in 2013, says he is better in 1 inning than he could ever be in 6, has 95-98 MPH FB w/ huge slider, could be very good in bullpen.

Parks then wrapped up the discussion with some pretty sobering notes. He reminds us all that, out of the top 5 guys in the system, if even one comes out and produces at an impact level, the Cubs have done very well. When asked which one will perform, Parks didn't hesitate and said "you're gonna get Almora. You're gonna get Almora, and if you get Baez as well the team will be very good". He finished by saying that the impact talent in the system is all likely 3-4 years away from surfacing


#30944 BNFL Point Changes Thread

Posted by T C on 07 August 2012 - 09:52 PM

Fuckin' A this is sweet. Thanks Tommyboy


Hey man, you offered to name a child after me, I had to at least put some effort into it


#30562 BNFL Point Changes Thread

Posted by T C on 02 August 2012 - 07:55 PM

I don't think RP should be all that valuable since, well, they're not all that valuable in real life either.

As far as the whole "having wins and losses adds strategy" argument goes, I really dislike it. Yeah, it adds strategy, but that doesn't mean it's a good thing. (MLB could require all players to cartwheel from home to first. It would add strategy in roster decisions for GMs!) In a league this deep, it just seems silly to reward an owner for getting those extra wins from a lucky 5th starter on a good team. I would personally love to see wins/losses replaced with really strong incentives for QS, which are a pretty damn good stat for an individual game and give equal value to good pitchers on shitty teams.

On a similar note, special points for no-hitters and such seem useless to me. those events are, mostly, dumb luck in a lot of ways. I'd be in favor of increasing CG points, but scrapping points for shutouts, no hitters, and perfect games. Also, wasn't the argument for decreasing K points that it double-counts as a k and a 1/3 of an inning? How is that different from double-rewarding a great shutout?

About the k points being decreased, if you want to make great RP's valuable, k's should still be worth more points. What's the best quality in late-inning RP's that you would look for? The ability to miss fucktons of bats. Decreasing the k value really hurts RP.

And, in general, my best argument against the overall scoring changes may be what you showed in that Aaron Harang start. that is a fucking putrid start, and if that's actually going to increase in points, well, that makes me a bit uneasy.


#27889 BNFL Hot Stove League

Posted by T C on 30 June 2012 - 11:36 PM

When is the trading deadline, does anyone know?

And I'm still selling Liriano, Moore, Rollins, Ike Davis, and others for those contenders interested


#23621 ESPN's Franchise Player Draft

Posted by T C on 31 May 2012 - 09:38 PM

Im about to lose it reading this. Miguel Cabrera, regardless of his age and inability to play much defense, is a generational talent with his bat. He's not even 30 yet, so the idea that he isn't that valuable in a "franchise" draft is ridiculous. From a fantasy perspective, he's likely to have 3B eligibility for the next 2-4 years while hitting 30+ HR while hitting .320-.340. That Jeff fucking Samardzija would go ahead of him is one of the more stupefying things I've read in a while. My brain cannot even handle it.

More importantly, there are lots of other player who went before Miggy that make no sense...like Prince Fielder, who is not even close to the hitter that Cabrera is, but instead comes with 3 times the demarcations for soon-to-be-DHedness, historically worrying body type, and having to adjust to new pitchers relatively late in his career. I just...

I can't let myself get too upset by this, but its difficult not to


#18778 Marmol ... WTF! (take two)

Posted by T C on 08 May 2012 - 09:32 AM

Dude, calm down, I've now seen this exact post on these boards like 12 times in the last two weeks, and at least three of them are from you.

Yes, Marmol is shaky. No, he probably should not have been out there last night. But who the hell else is Sveum supposed to throw in this situation? The bullpen is a wreck, and Marmol is probably still in the top half of the pitchers down there. Wood has been shaky, Camp is garbage, Castillo isn't much better, nor is Bowden, Dolis threw two innings the day before and Russel was slated to be the closer.

Who should Sveum have thrown instead of Marmol?
And you CANNOT just cut the guy. He's owed a ton of money, and was previously the most dominant closer in the game's history (16 k/9 is absurd). He's lost his slider, but if he gets it back, (and considering half the league's closers to start the season are now injured or replaced), he could look really good for a contending team to take on half of his salary.

"What does it take to convince Sveum and Co. that Marmol should NOT be in a big league game at this time and perhaps never again! I'm to the point that IF (and unfortunately it's looking like WHEN) Marmol is trotted out there, I am HOPING for yet another meltdown, with hopes that the final straw will finally break the camel's back... In the meantime, I hope fellow teammates are purposely spreading the flu germs all over Marmol's locker and all of it's contents. "

You call yourself a fan, man? This is pathetic, if you want the Cubs to win games, you should be hoping that he goes out there and fucking dominates like he used to. Actively hoping Marmol melts down is just dumb; more Marmol meltdowns are the exact opposite of what the team needs in, like, every way. Oh, sure, you say that it will lead to better pitchers in the bullpen, but will it? The bullpen is shaky, and there isn't much of anything in the minors to help out. And if you say "trade for a better one" I'm going to climb through my ethernet cord to slap you.

So, again, who should be in the bullpen instead of Carlos Marmol?


#13076 Brewers v. Cubs - April 10, 2012 (TV: CSN)

Posted by T C on 10 April 2012 - 06:22 PM

Posted Image

Have a nice night everyone


#11636 Nationals v. Cubs - April 7, 2012

Posted by T C on 07 April 2012 - 12:24 PM

thank Mark DeRosa, we really needed that


#9906 Why the 2012 Cincinnati Reds Will Suck

Posted by T C on 14 March 2012 - 01:22 PM

The Baseline for Suckitude (how they were last year)

Did anyone get a chance to watch this team last year? No? That's what I thought. And thats because they were too terrible to ever merit ESPN or FOX games of the week, and their highlights barely found their way onto SportsCenter. Just based off that circumstantial evidence, Im going to go ahead and declare their 2011 as really sucky. Oh, and like, they had an 79-83 record, and tons of players massively underperformed/flat out blew. Drew Stubbs took a step back, as did their starting pitching. They even gave some shitty Lil Wayne impersonator 108 IP last year. It doesn't get worse than that.

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Sucky Offseason Moves (who they gained and who they lost)

Who trades away 4 top prospects for Mat Latos? These assholes do. They must have thought his whiny, childish nature would fit Dusty well. They also thought it would be a great idea to take a guy with a 42% FB% and a way-too-low-to-not-be-luck HR/FB% out of San Diego and plop him in the middle of stadium where Tony Campana could slug 25 dingers. Regression to the mean is gonna pimp-slap the ever-loving fuck out of him this year, all while Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal establish themselves as legitimate major leaguers.

And because one dumbass trade wasn't enough, they went and sent off three useful players for a set-up man in Sean Marshall. And then they gave him $16M. A freakin' set-up guy. Y'know who else does shit like that? Jim Hendry. I rest my case.

They also signed Jeff Francis and Willie Harris and Ryan Ludwick, who should struggle mightily to combine for about -1.3WAR. Normally this wouldn't be a huge issue, but they're all going to see significant playing time, because of...

The Suckiest Part of Their Suck (the worst part of the team)
Posted Image


I really hate to beat the same horse everyone else does, but when that horse is as self-involved and clueless as Dusty Baker, there's no avoiding it. The Reds are a team who are going to be hamstrung by an old-school, rock-fuck dumb baseball dinosaur of a manager who consistently starts washed up veterans over promising young talent. Their stud Catcher prospect, Devin Mesoraco, will probably see half or less of the starts in favor of Ryan Hangian. Their solid SS prospect Zack Cozart will lose a pretty frightening amount of games to the utterly worthless Paul Janish. Chris Heisy, who should be decent, will probably be benched in favor of Ryan Ludwick in LF. Ryan Ludwick, he of a .297 wOBA last season. The Reds deserve to lose every game they lose this year, just cause of Dusty.

But thats not even the worst of it, cause for whatever playing time he slights positional players, he pays back by throwing the young'ns about 50 innings more than is healthy every year. Edinson Volquez has already fallen to Dusty, Johnny Cueto has to be fearing for his life, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey must be terrified of the pitch counts they're gonna charge to their elbows this year, and Mat Latos is probably stoked for the 300 innings he's gonna throw this season, because he's a douchebag and thats just how he rolls. Aroldis Chapman is lucky he hasn't been thrown in the rotation yet, cause Dusty woulda used him up and thrown him away like a cheap hooker by last June. This team is just brimming with young arms for someone to feed to the gods of Wins and Innings Pitched, and boy will Dusty be happy to oblige.

And in the End (overall, why they suck)
In the end, its freakin' Cincinnati. 98 Degrees, Woody Harrelson, and the Snuffleupagus' Grandma are from Cincinnati, and thats about it. 98 Degrees is the best known act to come out of Cincinnati. Let that sink in. Fuckin 98 Degrees, a collection of some of the most egregiously lame, no-talent assclowns to ever make music is from Cincinnati. Holy shit did boy bands suc right, baseball. The best part of this team is their bullpen, which is kinda like saying the best part of your body is your ears. Its like, cool, good for you, but that means you're probably still 7-10 beers away from the opposite sex finding you attractive. And its the same with the Reds, who are like 4-5 questions away from being real contenders. Ryan Madson, Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman are nice, but their rotation is full of volatile young pitchers, Jay Bruce probably isn't last years Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen is getting old, Drew Stubbs might continue to get worse, and they have glaring unknowns at catcher and shortstop.

All the analysts who say the Reds are favorites are way off base. The Reds are gonna suck this year, and when Votto finishes his indentured servitude in that hell hole the Reds are gonna be up shit creek with nothing but Sean Marshall and Jay Bruce. Get used to the Suck, Cincy, cause its about to set in prettty deep.




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