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Member Since 31 Aug 2011
Offline Last Active Jan 03 2014 06:30 PM

#9775 Umpire Bias

Posted by T C on 12 March 2012 - 09:08 PM

Now bear with me here...one thing that really, really bothers me about umpires is when they do their signature emphatic calls for strike three...you know when they "punch guys out"...I don't think they should be able to do that unless they are just as emphatic when they make their ball four calls...because you can't tell me that when they get a chance to do those "punch-outs" their isn't just a little bit of attention grabbing that flashes through their minds....

do I just say "nope, take your base"? or do I do some type of half karate-like grunt/chop type thing and yell?

Proposal: New umpire walk signal:

Repeated pelvic thrusts in the direction of first base whilst staring back at the pitcher

#8613 Catching Hell

Posted by T C on 28 February 2012 - 08:22 PM

Y'know, Im gonna take the completely unenlightened, meathead stance here.

I'm still angry as hell at the guy. No matter who got in the way of that ball, I would still be angry at them, because as an attentive fan you should be aware of the situation and get the fuck out of the way, and push as many others out of the way as well. Those were the emotions I felt then, and i don't think looking at it from a reasonable perspective should overrule how it felt back then. Its sports fandom, reason has no bearing on how I feel about these things. Yes, his story is a sad one, and from a normal human perspective I hope he stays disappeared forever so he can live a normal life. But at the end of the day, fuck him. And Alex Gonzalez. Especially Alex Gonzalez.

#6782 Early Planning - BN Get-Together at Wrigley in the First Couple Weeks of the...

Posted by T C on 30 January 2012 - 07:30 PM

wait...you people don't all live in the Chicagoland area?....I wonder if the White Sox have any fans outside of Illinois?.....

yea, they do, but they're only out of state because the in-state maximum security prisons wouldn't have them

#5343 New Stats and an old dog... (BABIP)

Posted by T C on 29 December 2011 - 01:13 PM

NEW STATS: I make this suggestion to everyone I know: read fangraphs.com. (also, check out their SABR Library http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ which does a fantastic job of describing how each stat is derived and why it is useful) They deal almost exclusively in discussing baseball with newer stats, and reading how such stats are used on a day to day basis really helps you become familiar and comfortable with them. Also, the writing is really solid.

Anyway, main points:

Minor League BABIP is generally taken very lightly, both because of the defensive issues you mentioned but also because of the nature of prospects. Brett Jackson put up something near a .400 BABIP in AAA last year. Is that because he was lucky, or because he was mashing inferior pitching? It's really tough to make that distinction. However, on the other side of the spectrum, a guy posting a .200 BABIP is probably awful, but he probably also got lucky. Which raises the big problem of where guys in the middle are. Are they really good and unlucky, or really bad and unlucky. It's nigh impossible to get a feel for such things using stats, and that is where scouting comes in.

I think Bill James' predictions are based off of a weighted average of a players' last 4 or 5 years, but that might be ZIPS or tangotiger's...
Also, Beyond the Boxscore has a pretty nifty xBABIP write up (http://www.hardballt...ters-and-babip/)(expected BABIP. 'x' before a stat signifies expected, or predicted, values for a player, while a 'w' signifies a weighted version of a stat (usually weighted against league averages and such)). The formula is written as such:

xBABIP = 0.392 + (LD% x 0.287709436) + ((GB% – (GB% * IFH%)) x -0.152 ) + ((FB% – (FB% x HR/FB%) – (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.188) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.835) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.500)

so, yea, peripherals can be used fairly accurately to predict a hitter's BABIP. I'd imagine the same process can be applied to find a pitcher's, but then the issue of each pitcher having the same defense behind them at all times comes up.

SORRY FOR THE ESSAY hope some of it was intelligible

#4377 Cubs Top Prospects Master List

Posted by T C on 01 December 2011 - 03:58 PM

Ok, re-did the BCS% thing, and here's the update:

This was calculated as such, based off of 7 lists:

Players got 25 pts for 1st, 24 for 2nd, etc. for every list. This was totaled, then divided by 175 (25*7). This calculation is a kind of weighted Ranked%, because it takes into account whether or not a player was ranked on every list (not ranked=no points), and gives more points to those who were ranked higher. While this means that players who were ranked lower but appeared on all lists skew towards the higher side, that in itself is a sign that there is more confidence in that prospect

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#4236 Cubs Top Prospects Master List

Posted by T C on 29 November 2011 - 05:26 PM

With all the recent Cubs' Top Prospects lists being debuted, I decided to jump in on the fun and put together a master list consisting of our prospects' average rankings. I went through 7 different rankings of our organization (Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, FanGraphs, BleacherNation, Baseball Instinct, and two lists from Bullpen Banter. More will be added as they are released) and chose our top 22 prospects based on their frequency on these lists (Only these 22 received more than one place on a list, with the exception of Austin Kirk, who is here for placing 9th in the FanGraphs rankings).

Cubs Prospect Master List:

1. Brett Jackson (1.29 average rank, 5 1st place ranks)
2. Javier Baez (1.86, 2 1st place ranks)
3. Matt Szczur (3.57)
4. Trey McNutt (4.86)
5. Dillon Maples (6.67)
6. Jeimer Candelario (7.25)
7. Junior Lake (7.33)
8. Ben Wells (7.75)
9. Josh Vitters (8.29)
10. Daniel Vogelbach (8.71)
11. Wellington Castillo (8.83)
12. Austin Kirk (9.00)
13. Chris Carpenter (10.0)
14. Dae-Eun Rhee (11.0)
14. Rafael Dolis (11.0)
16. Jae-Hoon Ha (12.0)
16. Reggie Golden (12.0)
18. Marco Hernandez (12.25)
19. Zeke DeVoss (12.33)
20. DJ Lemahieu (13.00)
21. Tony Zych (13.50)
22. Ryan Flaherty (15.50)

A few notes:

- The differences between average ranks and ranks on this list are due to the opinions of each ranking system being weighted equally. (I might re-do this later with more weight given to BP BA FG and BN, but for now, its staying as is)

-There are some clear groups that scouts/writers have placed our prospects. There is a clear Top 2 in Jackson and Baez, a clear 2nd Tier in Szczur and McNutt, and then several groups below it. (Tier 3 is Maples, Candelario, Lake, and Wells. Tier 4 has Vitters, Vogelbach, Castillo, Kirk and Carpenter.)

-It is interesting to note that Tier 3 consists of 3 players (Maples, Candelario, and Lake) who are seen to have enormous upside, but are all still very young. These players are all capable of rocketing up the rankings in the next year and flying through the system, a la Starlin Castro, who was ranked about 7th pre-2009.

-Also interesting is that Tier 4 is made up of exclusively of players who were ranked all over the damn place.
-Castillo was ranked as high as 3rd by BP, and as low as 14th (FanGraphs)
-Vitters ranges from 4th to 11th
-Vogelbach ranges from 6th to 12th

-If you read the FanGraphs article, you'll notice that their ranking of the Cubs' Prospects is very pitcher-heavy, containing a lot of names that dont often show up elsewhere.

-Only 5 players show up on all 7 lists I looked at: Jackson, Baez, Szczur, Maples, and Vitters.

Hopefully some of you find this interesting/useful! I will be updating this as more and more sites release their rankings


Posted by T C on 20 November 2011 - 01:27 AM

Just wondering if anyone else around here has played what is easily the most addicting game I've ever encountered.

For those of you who don't know what it is, Minecraft is a sandbox game where everything is 1-cubic meter block, and you can place them to build whatever you like. There are also monsters the blow up and try to destroy what you build. It really is an insanely unique game, and the things people build in it are mindblowing

#3882 Ideas for a 2012 Bleacher Nation T-Shirt

Posted by T C on 11 November 2011 - 01:02 AM

I'm certain I'd buy a t-shirt but I'd really like to have a BN hoodie to wear around on these cold winter days.

As for design, I really think it should be the BN logo at the top of the page. Simple, reconziable and a conversation starter if anyone ask. Maybe with a simple tag line. I'm always a believer that simple is better but for a limited edition T humor is always the best route.

So here's a few ideas for tag lines:

  • "Quade Free Since November 2011"
  • "Short and Informative for 2012" Under the classic BN logo
  • "These are not my feet"
  • "Suck it Washington Post"
  • "MichiganGoat is my Bitch"

I would buy a "Quade (or Hendry) Free Since November 2011" shirt, regardless of its affiliation with this site

#2760 Rangers vs. Cardinals WS Game Thread

Posted by T C on 24 October 2011 - 08:50 PM

The problem with Cubs game day threads is that too many are day games and too few are nationally televised. If they went back to the days of showing 180 games on WGN, it would be perfect.

yea this is a really big issue, the Cubs need to realize the national brand name value theyre losing by not broadcasting everwhere

#2727 Rangers vs. Cardinals WS Game Thread

Posted by T C on 24 October 2011 - 08:38 PM

Does anyone else throw up in their mouths when they see the trailers for that Jack and Jill movie?

yes why does adam sandler choose to do some shitty movies.....i love him but why?

he hasnt put out a decent comedy in a decade, at least

#2683 Rangers vs. Cardinals WS Game Thread

Posted by T C on 24 October 2011 - 08:15 PM

Hi Dave! What's it like in the STL area with the cards in the series?

I'm about 3 hours away from STL, but these people are unbearable. After last nights game I heard all about the horrible umpiring even though it wasn't that bad and certainly wasn't the reason the Cards couldn't so shit.

Yea I'd imagine. my cousin up north couldnt stop complaining about how bad the brewers fans were, so i can only imagine the horror that must be cardinals fans this time of year

#1524 Chris Carpenter back to a Starter Next Season?

Posted by T C on 23 September 2011 - 01:26 PM

I think the main issue here is that Carpenter has had serious issues staying healthy as a starter. If that's the case, theres no reason to switch him back. And with his stuff, he could be a dominant late inning guy

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