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CubChymyst

Member Since 16 Feb 2012
Offline Last Active Apr 09 2014 07:01 PM
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#55220 Confessions of a New York Sports Writer

Posted by CubChymyst on 14 October 2013 - 08:50 AM

The comments to that article made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. 




#54857 Series She-View: Cubs v. Cardinals, September 27 - September 29

Posted by CubChymyst on 27 September 2013 - 08:33 AM

Joe's is much better. I don't know that anything can top 6 Kaley Cuocos.

The addition of a 7th Kaley Cuoco

 

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#54252 The Cubs' Ace

Posted by CubChymyst on 10 September 2013 - 09:02 PM

Talking about opening day anything is silly until spring training.  Who know what moves might be made over the offseason, and what injuries might prevent someone from being ready week one. If I had to guess right now though, it be Samardzija.




#51769 Series She-View: Brewers v. Cubs, July 29 - July 31

Posted by CubChymyst on 29 July 2013 - 10:38 AM

I wish I could un-see the brewers rep.




#49423 The GIFs Thread

Posted by CubChymyst on 05 July 2013 - 03:06 PM

Just saw this and had to share, one of the best first pitches ever

 

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#49233 Feldman trade from Baltimore perspective, made me feel better

Posted by CubChymyst on 02 July 2013 - 08:54 PM

 

Feldman off of the market drives the price of Garza up. The Dodgers are reassessing their price to acquire Nolasco, so you'd hope to expect that a club will want Garza before his next start.

That might be the biggest part of this whole trade. It got the ball rolling. Trade for Garza now, and you'll get 5-7 more starts out of him than you would if you waited until the deadline. Also, if Cubs can get rid of him, they don't have to worry about him getting hurt.

 

 

Your missing the part about Arrieta being off the market as well.  It sounded like he was a target for quite a few teams as well.  

 

Comparing Feldman to the Dempster return made me feel better about it.  Dempster had a longer track record of success and having a great season and we got to AA guys with upside.  Getting 2 power arms for Feldman is a decent return.  Both have potential if their control can improve, and have shown flashes of that improved control.  The problem is getting their control to the point that it is consistent feels like a big if.  Hopefully, Bosio and Johnson can get them to their potential. 




#46687 Why does Valbuena bat so low?

Posted by CubChymyst on 30 May 2013 - 10:55 PM

It would actually be 3 lefties in a row at the top of the order if Valbuena batted 2nd because Rizzo bats 3rd.  Likely it has to deal with the fact that Dale has been breaking up the left handed hitters. The typical line up the Cubs have been using against a RHSP goes L (Dejesus)-R (Castro)-L (Rizzo)-R (Soriano) -L (Schierholtz)-R (Castillo)-L (Valbuena)-R (Barney)-Pitcher.




#32343 Sabermetrics

Posted by CubChymyst on 28 September 2012 - 08:44 AM

here's some more advanced metrics: http://www.platoonad...son-voting.html



Favorite part about that was seeing Darwin Barney as a likely MVP candidate using Archaic statistics.


#32261 Sabermetrics

Posted by CubChymyst on 25 September 2012 - 03:52 PM

So yesterday I commented that Grace was a better hitter than Sosa and made an attempt to defend it. Drew7 used sabermetric arguments to say I was wrong. Not being very familiar with sabermetrics I decide to look into them and I just want to make sure I've got this correct.

BA - does not tell the whole story because a hit depends on luck and the placement of the 9 players in the field (which makes me even happier about Dale defensive shifts). Which is why small sample sizes are not useful. Over the course of a season luck tends to average out and people with better contact skills tend to have higher averages.

OBP- is better because it speaks more of players overall ability to get on base which is one part of run scoring.

SLG- Talks about the ability to move players who are currently on base over (which is the second part of scoring runs). The basic thought is the more bases the batter advances the more bases current runners on base advance, and the greater the likely hood they will score. So a double is better than a single and a triple is better than a double.

I looked up how often a player scores from 2nd base on a single and I found 58% of the time he will score (not sure about that number the site I found didn't strike me as a primary source). It is safe to assume a runner will score from second 100% of the time on a double or better. So if I look at ability of 3 different hypothetical players to score a player from second base.

Player A, a 0.300 hitter who only hits singles In a 100 at bats he will have 30 singles drive in player from second (0.3 x 0.58) 17.4 % of the time.

Player B, a person batting 0.250 and slugging 0.350 and his numbers are 19 singles, 4 doubles, and 2 home runs in 100 at bats. He scores the player from second (0.19 x 0.58 + 0.04 + 0.02) 17.0% of the time. He knocks in the runner a lower percentage of the time but he also scores himself 2% of the time so he ends up with more RBI's. (plus he has the potential to knocks in anyone on 1st base)

Player C, a person batting 0.250 and slugging 0.490 and his numbers are 14 singles, 4 double, 1 triple, and 6 home runs in 100 at bats. He scores the player from second (0.14 x 0.58 + .04+.01+.06) 19.1% of the time and also scores himself 6% of time so he also has more RBI's.

(needed the math for myself)

So slugging makes up for the difference in average because extra base hits have a high chance of scoring the a run even if they occur less often. So do I have this correct?


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