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SirCub

Member Since 12 Sep 2011
Offline Last Active Oct 10 2013 05:52 PM
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#30794 BNFL Point Changes Thread

Posted by SirCub on 06 August 2012 - 03:16 PM

I think it would be cool if the offensive points reflected their actual run value. I would title this method of scoring offensive statistics: The wOBA Method. If we scrapped everything except what the hitter has control over (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, SB and CS), we could scale the ratio between them pretty easily to reflect their true run value. The coefficients used to calculate wOBA (which comes from historical data that actually determines the run value of each play) can be found at Fangraphs.

Posted Image

Now we can take those coefficients and scale them to come up with some nice round numbers that mesh well with our current scale of scoring. Here's one choice that seems to work fairly well:

BB = 4
1B = 5
2B = 7
3B = 9
HR = 11
SB = 1.5
CS = -3

I think that would help balance our league much more. Taking away some of the (over)value of power hitters, and giving it to players with higher OBP's. Much more reflective of run value. Overall these point totals seem to add a bit (maybe 20%) to the scoring of hitters overall, so we could scale it back if need be. I've included some examples, using 2012 season totals, and just to make it comparable, I subtracted 150 from each wOBA score:

Miguel Cabrera
Current scoring method: 898.75
wOBA method: 936
Difference: +37.25

Josh Hamilton
Current: 812
wOBA: 747
Difference: -55

David Wright
Current: 788.5
wOBA: 933
Difference: +144.5

Mike Trout
Current: 813.25
wOBA: 815.4
Difference: +2.25

Joey Votto
Current: 650.5
wOBA: 778.5
Difference: +128

Cabrera's score increases marginally, because he has both a high OBP and a high SLG. Hamilton is "punished" with a decrease in points because he derives all of his value from his power, and hardly ever takes walks. Votto and Wright get huge bumps due to their high OBP's. Trout stays the same, because his high OBP is offset by the value he derives from SB's (which are less valuable in wOBA than in the current method). Obviously, other stats (ie- R, RBI, etc.) are discarded, which I think is favorable, and will keep rando guys with huge RBI totals from becoming fantasy world beaters. The points distribution would need a bit of tinkering, but that is the basic concept. I'd also like to see something similar with pitchers and FIP, but it would be less straight forward to set up.

Any thoughts?


#30464 A review of Cubs moves by Jason Stark

Posted by SirCub on 01 August 2012 - 12:54 PM

http://www.fangraphs...ers-and-losers/

I think this one's a bit better.


#30054 Cardinals v. Cubs - July 27, 2012 (TV: CSN)

Posted by SirCub on 27 July 2012 - 02:36 PM


You guys are insane. Wood, after being a perfectly acceptable back-of-the-rotation starter for 2 1/2 months, has two crappy games in a row and you're all ready to feed him to the pigs. I can only assume that much of this is hangover vitriol from the Dempster saga.


Last three starts...8 ER, 6 ER, 8 ER.


Seven (!) starts before that:

1 ER, 3 ER, 3 ER, 1 ER, 0 ER, 0 ER, 2 ER

That's more than twice as many good starts as bad.


#28995 Diamondbacks v. Cubs - July 14, 2012 (TV: WGN)

Posted by SirCub on 14 July 2012 - 12:30 PM


Hi, I'm the Cubs. I walk opposing teams' pitchers.

And turn double plays.

And pitch scoreless innings.


#25663 Cubs World Series at Comiskey

Posted by SirCub on 17 June 2012 - 08:09 AM

Here's a map of places I'd be willing to watch a Cubs World Series game.
Posted Image
The potential game locations are in yellow.


#21271 Phillies v. Cubs - May 16, 2012 (TV: CSN)

Posted by SirCub on 16 May 2012 - 09:23 PM

I think we used up Marisa Miller; time to bring in a warm body.

Whoa whoa whoa. That is a seriously reactionary comment. Talk all you want about cutting Soriano, trading Soto, and executing members of the bull pen, but slow your roll on Marisa Miller.


#18076 BNFL Power Rankings

Posted by SirCub on 03 May 2012 - 03:12 PM


Rick, while I appreciate Taint Petersburg, there was no way in hell I'd part with Zobrist and Santana. Santana has been the biggest steal of the draft by far for me. I picked him up super late and he's done well for me.

That's alright. After the nights Beltran and Zambrano had last night, I'm not too excited about trading them away anymore. Beltran is having an MVP start for me. I just hate how dirty I feel when he succeeds.

I have to take a shower every time after Yadier Molina puts up 20 points for me.


#17442 Cubs v. Reds - May 1, 2012 (TV: CSN+)

Posted by SirCub on 01 May 2012 - 12:37 PM

Hair on the Mound.

That sounds icky...


#17183 BNFL Power Rankings

Posted by SirCub on 30 April 2012 - 02:09 PM

Nice. I think we should add categories for "shit talking" and "coolest team name." Which I'm pretty sure would just extend the Slumpbusters' lead...


#13887 Brewers v. Cubs - April 12, 2012 (TV: CSN)

Posted by SirCub on 12 April 2012 - 04:09 PM

How bad was the game today?

The Cubs played, um, really... uh, what's the word when something is not bad? Unbad? Nonbad? Badless?


#12092 Brewers v Cubs 4/9/2012 - ESPN

Posted by SirCub on 09 April 2012 - 04:58 PM

Yea, I like all four, in the following order:

Pat, Len, Bob, Gronk

Moreland is ok, but Pat Hughes is masterful. If I win the 600 mil, I think I'll hire him to call play by play on my everyday life.


#10805 Pie Day!

Posted by SirCub on 04 April 2012 - 03:39 PM

Funny, that's around the same time as the inception of Pie Club (c. 2005). In High School, a couple of friends and I would meet on Thursdays after school and eat at least one standard 9" pie, usually fudge, from Ukrop's (greatest family owned grocery/bakery chain ever). Often times it would just be two or three of us, and we never left a pie unfinished. We tried to get the school to sponsor us, but they told us the club had to be about more than just eating pie, so we told them that we discussed republican politics while we ate. We never got school sponsorship. And they told us we had to stop meeting on school grounds.


#9921 Umpire Bias

Posted by SirCub on 14 March 2012 - 02:26 PM

Fascinating stuff, the 3-0 strikes don't really surprise me but the 2 strike misses are ridiculous.

Do you guys really think that umpires consider who is pitching/batting when making calls? I know that people talk about it all the time, but umps have about one second to make a call. Obviously the count and pitch location make a difference, but I feel like the pitcher/hitter wouldn't really be considered. Unless the ump has already made up his mind before the pitch is even thrown...

I don't think they "consider" anything when they make the calls. Not the pitcher, batter, or what the count is. What I think happens is that all of those things factor into what the umpire anticipates the result of the pitch will be. They anticipate that 0-2 pitches will be well out of the zone, 3-0 pitches will be right down the middle, and that Roy Halladay will paint the corner. So, that's the way they call it. The call, in itself, is just a reaction, but it is heavily influenced by their expected outcome.


#8924 First Spring Training broadcast, 3/5/12

Posted by SirCub on 05 March 2012 - 04:38 PM



And I'm being a bit overdramatic, but that's what the Gameday threads are for!

OMG, Joe Mather is sooo GOOD! We need to cut Soriano and give Mather a 100 million $$$ contract to lock him up for the next twenty years!

Um, yeah, thanks for stating the obvious, SirC. Jeesh.

Holy crap he is so good!!! Theo, if you don't sign him to an extenstion RIGHT AWAY (this afternoon!), I will personally tear down every Starbucks in the greater Chicago area! I'm not kidding!


#8919 First Spring Training broadcast, 3/5/12

Posted by SirCub on 05 March 2012 - 04:27 PM

And I'm being a bit overdramatic, but that's what the Gameday threads are for!

OMG, Joe Mather is sooo GOOD! We need to cut Soriano and give Mather a 100 million $$$ contract to lock him up for the next twenty years!




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