Fun With Jake Arrieta's Huge Game

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Fun With Jake Arrieta’s Huge Game

Analysis and Commentary

jake arrietaLast night, Jake Arrieta went seven scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and one walk, and striking out nine. Just how good is a start like that? Well, Arrieta’s win probability added in the game – 0.43 – made his start the pitching equivalent of a batter going three for four with two homers (roughly speaking).

Other bits on Arrieta’s big night …

  • Coming into the game, Arrieta’s ERA was already a scant 2.50. After the game, it dropped all the way to 2.09.
  • Similarly, Arrieta’s FIP and xFIP dropped from 2.58/3.16 to 2.32/2.89. If he had enough innings to qualify, those would be the third best and 10th best marks, respectively, in all of baseball.
  • Arrieta’s strikeout rate climbed from 22.6% to 24.6%, and his walk rate fell from 8.4% to 7.8%.
  • Arrieta got an unbelievable 13 swinging strikes last night, according to Brooks Baseball. Think about how many whiffs that is. Just crazy.
  • When he wasn’t notching strikeouts against the Phillies, Arrieta was once again a groundball stud: of his non-strikeout outs, seven were groundouts, one was a sac bunt, and four were fly/pop/line outs.
  • No surprise, then, that Arrieta’s excellent groundball rate more or less held steady after the start (from 52.0% to 52.1%).
  • And now my favorite: Arrieta has already accumulated 1.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs, in just 8 starts and 43 innings. If he threw 215 innings this year – that won’t happen, but just stick with me for fun purposes – that 1.3 WAR extrapolates to 6.5 over the course of a season. 6.5 WAR!


Author: Brett Taylor

Brett Taylor is the Editor and Lead Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and @Brett_A_Taylor.