Here’s some good news you probably hadn’t considered: until the Lions lost to Baltimore, there was a scenario in play in which the Bears could have gone 10-6 and missed the playoffs for the second time in two seasons. That’s no longer possible; if the Bears win their final two games, they make the playoffs. Which is good, as suffering that particular fate for the second year in a row would have to be some sort of Eighth Amendment violation.
So, what variables are in play? I tried to make this list as comprehensive as possible, so you (and I) could use it as a reference guide going into next weekend. Hopefully I got everything. The Green Bay tie threw a wrench into proceedings.
Warning: headaches may ensue.
As I mentioned, the simplest point: if the Bears win both of their remaining games, they’re in the playoffs. If you’d prefer to think of it like that and ignore the convoluted mess below, I can’t say that I’d blame you. (Personally, I always like diving into these scenarios. I might just be weird.)
If the Lions and Packers both lose on Sunday, the Bears would clinch with a win in Philadelphia on Sunday night. This is the only scenario in which the Bears can clinch this weekend.
If all three teams win on Sunday, the Lions would be eliminated; their ceiling would be 9-7, while one of Chicago or Green Bay would finish with, at most, 6 losses. The Bears-Packers game would be a de facto play-in game.
If all three teams were to lose, the Bears would clinch with a win or tie in Week 17 against Green Bay. In this scenario, Detroit would be 8-8 at best, while one of either Chicago or Green Bay would be leaving Soldier Field with only 7 losses. This would also create a de facto play-in game.
If Green Bay wins while Detroit and Chicago lose, Detroit would be eliminated and the Bears-Packers game would be a de facto play-in game.
If the Lions lose while Green Bay and Chicago win, the Lions would be eliminated, and the Bears/Packers game for Week 17 would be a de facto play-in game. (This scenario, along with the previous three, would likely result in the Bears-Packers game being flexed to Sunday Night Football. I’d think it would be less likely to happen if the Lions still have any kind of chance heading into Week 17, but I could be wrong.)
If Chicago and Detroit win next weekend, but Green Bay loses, the Packers would be eliminated, as they could not reach 9 wins while Chicago would finish, at worst, 9-7. That would set up a Week 17 in which the Bears would clinch with a win or a Lions loss or tie in Minnesota, while the Lions would clinch with a win and a Chicago loss.
If Detroit wins next Sunday while both Chicago and Green Bay lose, Green Bay would be eliminated, Detroit would clinch with a win in Minnesota, and the Bears would need to win or tie and hope for a Detroit loss.
If the Bears were to lose on Sunday, while Green Bay and Detroit both won, the Bears would need to defeat Green Bay on the final weekend and hope for a Lions loss or tie. It’s important to note that the Bears will be alive going into Week 17 no matter what happens next weekend.
I’ll also note that if the Bears beat the Eagles and subsequently make the playoffs (no matter how they do it) they’ll be the #3 seed in the NFC. (Neither the Eagles or Cowboys could have a better record in this scenario, and the Bears would own the tiebreaker against both teams.)
If the Bears lose to the Eagles and Philadelphia ends up NFC East champion, the best Chicago could hope for would be the #4 seed.
If the Bears were to lose to Philadelphia but make the playoffs, and Dallas were to win the NFC East, the Bears would be assured of the #3 seed barring an insane scenario in which the Bears win the division via a Week 17 tie against Green Bay. Since the Bears most likely must win once more to make the playoffs, they could finish no worse than tied with Dallas at 9-7; they would get the higher seed based on their head-to-head victory in Week 14.
So, totally simple, right? If it helps, any Detroit loss knocks them out. Also, I’d love to use “de facto” more often. Really went on a tear there for a few bullets. Who knew Latin was so fun? How did it ever die? Regardless, I’d be more than okay with the Bears winning out and making this moot, even though I spent a sad amount of time compiling it.
You just know ESPN is going to have some sort of interactive graphic that explains everything far better than I just did. If you see something like that, please don’t share it with me.
Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here.
Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.
I had a great visit with my therapist today. Between that and an afternoon cold brew, I've got enough in me to power through an evening Bears post. Let's dig into some recent mock drafts that are giving off a...
For all the discussion about the big three wide receivers who could be on the Chicago Bears radar on NFL Draft weekend, a different high-profile pass-catcher is apparently garnering some interest from the team. All-American tight end Brock Bowers had...
The Chicago Bears continue building out their organizational staff around President Kevin Warren. And their latest addition arrives to Halas Hall with three Super Bowl rings in tow. The team announced the hiring of Ted Crews, who has spent the...
Maybe it's just me, but Wednesdays are starting to feel like the new Mondays. Ick. There are just 8 days until the 2024 NFL Draft. We're almost there, friends. We've almost made it. The best pre-draft stat you'll see comes...
Even though the Chicago Bears have plugged several notable holes this offseason, one biggie remains. And it leaves me to ask a pertinent question: Who wants to play the 3-technique defensive tackle role? Perhaps Illinois' Johnny Newton is the answer....
'Tis the season for dot-connecting. And if you are a Chicago Bears fan, you might want to keep tabs on what is happening between your favorite team's current first and ninth picks. ESPN's Adam Schefter names the Arizona Cardinals and...
The MMQB's Albert Breer shares an anecdote about the Washington Commanders pre-draft process. Washington, which holds the second pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is hosting a bunch of quarterbacks for top-30 visits this week. Together. In the same place....
Thin Lizzy's "The Boys Are Back In Town" played in a loop in my head on Monday as I thought about the Chicago Bears strolling into Halas Hall to start the offseason training program. This is what it looked like...
Chop Robinson is more than a cool name. He was also a productive edge defender for the Penn State Nittany Lions. And, today, NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport reports that Chop Robinson is visiting with the Chicago Bears — today. That's...
We're adding Dadrion Taylor-Demerson to the list of players who are coming down to Halas Hall for a top-30 visit with the Chicago Bears. Chris Emma has the scoop on the Texas Tech defensive back's upcoming trip to the greater...
The Boston Red Sox (10-9), led by Tyler O'Neill, host Josh Naylor and the Cleveland Guardians (12-6) at 1:35 PM ET on Thursday.If you're planning on watching this game, keep reading for streaming and TV options for the Boston-Cleveland matchup.When...
The Chicago Bulls can't seem to swat the injury bug. Despite Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu returning from their multi-game absences on Wednesday, the Bulls have likely lost their defense ace. Alex Caruso suffered a foot injury in the first...
Whether or not he gets the hardware, Coby White is the NBA's Most Improved Player. The Chicago Bulls guard has fully embraced his bigger workload this season, showing improvements in almost every aspect of his game. This was on full...
The Miami Heat have some serious concerns after their Play-In Tournament loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night. According to The Athletic's Shams Charania, Jimmy Butler is "feared" to have suffered an MCL injury in his knee. An MRI...
The San Francisco Giants (8-11), led by Michael Conforto, host Ketel Marte and the Arizona Diamondbacks (9-10) on Thursday at 9:45 PM ET.Keep reading to find out how to watch the San Francisco-Arizona matchup in the article below.When is Giants...
The San Francisco Giants are hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks for a four-game series, with the first matchup getting underway at 9:45 PM ET on Thursday, April 18.Giants vs. Diamondbacks Series Info Diamondbacks @ Giants Time: Thursday, April 18 at 9:45...
A four-game series between the Chicago Cubs and the visiting Miami Marlins will start on Thursday, April 18 at 7:40 PM ET.Cubs vs. Marlins Series Info Marlins @ Cubs Time: Thursday, April 18 at 7:40 PM ET Cubs Starting Pitcher:...
DeMar DeRozan is almost 35 years old and led the NBA in minutes this season. I want you to remember that as you watch what you're about to see. The Chicago Bulls' veteran forward was tearing apart the Atlanta Hawks...
The Chicago Bulls understood the assignment. Unlike what we saw against Toronto in the first Play-In Tournament game last season, the Bulls were the ones to get out to an early lead. DeMar DeRozan was completely in his bag from...
The Chicago Cubs (11-7), led by Michael Busch, host Luis Arraez and the Miami Marlins (4-15) on Thursday at 7:40 PM ET.If you're intending to watch this game, keep reading for TV and streaming options for the Chicago-Miami matchup.When is...
NEWSLETTER
