Bears Already the Betting Favorite to Land Jimmy Garoppolo, Who Projects to Improve Team’s Win Total By 22%

Before coming to a deal to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots, the Chicago Bears must ask whether or not the team would be better now and in the future upon completion in the deal. After all, adding Garoppolo is not only about trying to lock down a long-term, franchise quarterback – it’s also about simply trying to improve in 2017, the one remaining season for which Garoppolo is currently under contract.

According to Sportsline.com, by adding Garoppolo, the Bears would do exactly that. And the Bears are the betting favorite to land him, too.

Senior analyst Larry Hartstein writes that the Bears are favored by the betting odds to land New England’s backup quarterback. In fact, the Bears’ odds are currently better the odds the Patriots simply keep Garoppolo. Clearly, the bookmakers put some stock in a recent report indicating that Garoppolo is far and away the Bears’ top target this offseason.

[adinserter block=”1″]

Moreover, according to the site’s projection model, adding Garoppolo to the Bears would immediately make them a better team for 2017. Garoppolo — pegged by Sportsline as an efficient player who would provide “a major upgrade from Jay Cutler and Matt Barkley” — would by himself push the team’s projected win total up by 22 percent (from 5.3 to 6.5 wins), and bump their playoff odds to 11 percent.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance? Excellent.

HOWEVER, because the Bears have so many other deficiencies throughout the roster, adding Garopppolo to the Bears wouldn’t even provide the most significant positive impact compared to the teams in the hunt for his services.

For example, adding Garoppolo to the Denver Broncos would increase that team’s playoff odds from 40 percent to 68 percent, with a 43 percent shot at taking back the AFC West crown from the Kansas City Chiefs. A move to the Houston would nearly double the Texans’ chances as repeating as AFC South champs. The New York Jets (who could be in play to acquire Jay Cutler) would see their playoff odds jump from 4 percent to 18 percent, and see an increase of 30 percent to their projected win total. And if the 49ers (who could also be making a play for Cutler this offseason if they don’t land Garoppolo) want in on this, too, saying goodbye to Colin Kaepernick and bringing in Garoppolo projects to bring a 25 percent leap in the win column.

[adinserter block=”2″]

So, when teams (the Bears included) plan their offseason wish lists, not only should they be asking whether or not betting on Garoppolo’s future is worth more to them than standing pat — because the answer for all the contenders in the Garoppolo Sweepstakes projects to be “yes” at some level— but they should also ask to what extent does this quarterback provide an upgrade. Is a marginal increase in expected wins in 2017 worth mortgaging a future that still needs a stronger foundation? If not, then you get into the calculation on an extension and how many wins can be added in 2018 and beyond.

Expect for these questions to be answered by some team’s general manager at some point this offseason.

written by

Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

more bears news

Dan Campbell is Happy To See Justin Fields Leave the NFC North

There was no escaping the mixed emotions from Chicago Bears fans when the Justin Fields trade went down earlier this month. But there were none of that from Detroit Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell. Heck, I'd argue there was just...

Another Pass Rusher Signs Elsewhere: Jadeveon Clowney Lands With the Panthers

Another day. Another pass rusher signing. And another defensive lineman going to a team that isn't the Chicago Bears. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport was the first with the news of Jadeveon Clowney signing with the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, ESPN's...

Malik Nabers Might’ve Run His Way Out of the Chicago Bears Draft Spot

Today was LSU's Pro Day and Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles was scheduled to be in attendance, per The Athletic's Adam Jahns. Assuming Poles made his flight, he got a good look at the likes of quarterback Jayden Daniels, as...

Goodell on Bears Stadium Deal, No to Hard Knocks? More Old Friends Go to Steelers, and Other Bears Bullets

I keep forgetting that I have a Starbucks gift card from Christmas that has gone unused to this point. Maybe I'll remember it next time I go out for coffee. A big shout out to PFF Brad, who made the...

Ryan Poles Was Pissed Off By RGIII’s Comments About Caleb Williams Situation

When I saw them pop up, RGIII's comments suggesting Caleb Williams pull an Eli Manning and refuse to play for the Chicago Bears were met with an eye-roll, audible groan, and immediate dismissal before moving onto more pertinent topics. But...

Bears Stadium Update: Kevin Warren Reiterates Plans to Build in Downtown Chicago

It sure is starting to sound like Arlington Heights fumbled the bag when it comes to locking in Arlington Park as the future home of a Chicago Bears stadium. While meeting with the media at the NFL owners meetings in...

The NFL is Playing a Christmas Day Doubleheader in 2024

Christmastime is generally full of cheer. And in 2024, it will be full of cheering. In fact, we're talking double the cheer. ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter reports the league will play not one, but *TWO* Christmas Day games. It's...

2024 NFL Mock Draft: How High Can J.J. McCarthy’s Stock Rise?

Hard to believe we're less than a month away from the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft! With just weeks remaining until the NFL's most noteworthy offseason event, there are plenty of rumors floating. As we work through all...

NFL Rules Shakeup, Tomlin on Fields, Trubisky’s Linsanity Run, and Other Bears Bullets

The Bachelor's season-finale had a couple of jaw-dropping moments. Once the group chat catches up, it is going to be lit. What better way to start Bears Bullets than with breakfast anecdotes? I think I'm going to enjoy D'Andre Swift's...

Around the NFL: New Kickoff Rules Explained, NFL Trade Deadline Extended, More

NFL owners ratified a sweeping overhaul of the kickoff play on Tuesday, embracing a format inspired by the XFL following three days of deliberations at the league’s yearly gathering. Essentially, the new format relocates the bulk of both kicking and return teams...

Latest News

WAKE UP, BASEBALL IS BACK

The day has arrived. Opening Day. The most glorious day on the baseball calendar, save for the day of each Chicago Cubs World Series win, of course. See, I get to say things like that on Opening Day. Maybe the...

Pac-12 Basketball Predictions, Computer Picks and Best Bets | March 28

There is one game featuring a Pac-12 teams on the Thursday postseason college basketball schedule, the Clemson Tigers versus the Arizona Wildcats. Make sure you check out below for today's best bets!How to Bet on Pac-12 Games[lasso rel="draftkings-promo-1" id="299003"]Best Pac-12...

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Tampa Bay Rays look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-135) in a season-opening matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on MLB Network, live from Tropicana...

Astros vs. Yankees Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Houston Astros look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-156) in a season-opening matchup with the New York Yankees. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on YES, live from Minute Maid Park.Houston's...

Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Detroit Tigers begin their season as -181 favorites in a road tilt against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on BSDET.Tarik Skubal starts for Detroit while Garrett Crochet is Chicago's starter for the contest.Tigers...

Reds vs. Nationals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Cincinnati Reds begin their season as -154 favorites in a home tilt against the Washington Nationals on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET, live on MASN2.Cincinnati's Frankie Montas gets the start, and he'll go against Washington's Josiah Gray.Reds vs. Nationals...

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) will look to Will Smith, red hot after a four-hit game, to lead them in a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals (0-0) on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSMW. The Dodgers are -232...

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Miami Marlins look to start their season with a win as home favorites (-133) in a season-opening matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on Sportsnet PT, live from LoanDepot park.Miami's Jesus...

Padres vs. Giants Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The San Francisco Giants (0-0) are the underdogs on the moneyline (-106) in Thursday's contest against the San Diego Padres (1-1). Game time is set for 4:10 PM ET on NBCS-BA. The Giants are favored against the spread in this...

Twins vs. Royals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Minnesota Twins look to start their season with a win as road favorites (-122) in a season-opening matchup with the Kansas City Royals. First pitch is on Thursday at 4:10 PM ET on BSN, live from Kauffman Stadium.Pablo Lopez...

more bears news