Tracking the Bears' 2018 Draft Spot: Top-10 Pick Seems Safe, But Value Could Drop

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Tracking the Bears’ 2018 Draft Spot: Top-10 Pick Seems Safe, But Value Could Drop

Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears’ chances at landing a pick inside the top-5 were already slim when they steamrolled the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14. But for those concerned about the Bears’ draft position after a win should know the team didn’t fall too far down the draft board.

Upon the completion of Week 14, it turns out the Bears dropped from sixth to seventh in the 2018 NFL Draft order. Chicago is one of four teams at 4-9 entering the final three weeks of the season, but they’re losers in every tie-breaker with the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans (whose pick goes to the Cleveland Browns), so they will draft behind those two teams. The Bears have a tie-breaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the fourth team with a 4-9 record, so they have that going for them.

This is what the draft’s order will look like entering Week 15’s games:

  1. Cleveland Browns (0-13)
  2. New York Giants (2-11)
  3. Indianapolis Colts (3-10)
  4. San Francisco 49ers (3-10)
  5. Denver Broncos (4-9)
  6. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans)
  7. CHICAGO BEARS (4-9)
  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)
  9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
  10. New York Jets (5-8)

The biggest takeaway here isn’t the Bears slipping a spot in the draft order.

Moving down to seventh in the draft order also helped sink the value of the team’s picks, according to’s calculations. As it stands, the Bears’ picks (Nos. 7, 38, 104, 108, 135, 166, 197) have the ninth-highest value. That’s a number that could swing over the next few weeks and into the offseason depending on whether or not the team loses a draft pick as compensation for acquiring Dontrelle Inman in a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers.

According to 12,800 simulations conducted by the New York Times’ interactive results simulator, the Bears have an eight percent chance of getting the No. 3 pick. Those odds were at 20 percent a week ago at this time. A loss to the Detroit Lions on Saturday would bump those odds back up to 10 percent, but a win would trim those chances down to one percent.

So while Saturday’s contest isn’t a swing game like the one that just took place in Cincinnati, it could still very well help shape the top-10 of the upcoming draft.

P.S. The latest mock draft had the Bears taking the top wide receiver.

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Author: Luis Medina

Luis Medina is a Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at@lcm1986.