The Chicago Bears’ first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft could be in the top-6, drop out of the top-10, or fall somewhere in the middle.
After 16 games, nothing is settled and there is still much to be determined with one week left to decide the draft order of the non-playoff teams.
With the order rounding into form, this is what it looks like heading into Week 17:
- Cleveland Browns (0-15)
- New York Giants (2-13)
- Indianapolis Colts (3-12)
- Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans, 4-11)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11)
- New York Jets (5-10)
- Denver Broncos (5-10)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-10)
- CHICAGO BEARS (5-10)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-9)
The Bears’ Christmas Eve win against the Cleveland Browns clinched The Unofficial AFC North title, but the victory (coupled with losses by the New York Jets and Denver Broncos) slid them down the pecking order for the 2018 Draft, and nearly out of the top-10. And while they are one of four teams with a 5-10 record, the Bears will pick behind the Jets, Broncos, and 49ers if their records stay the same because of the strength of schedule tiebreaker. A .558 winning percentage by Chicago’s 2017 opponents is the best of the bunch, and yeah, that’s how the tiebreaker works. The Bears couldn’t even win for losing because of their opponents’ winning. Bummer.
At this point, the only way for the Bears to move up is to lose on Sunday to the Minnesota Vikings while also getting help in the form of wins by the Jets (at Patriots), Broncos (vs. Chiefs), and/or 49ers (at Rams). If the Bears were to pull off a season-ending upset against the Vikings, the team would need wins by the Bengals (at Ravens), Raiders (at Chargers), and Dolphins (vs. Bills) to lock up a top-10 pick.
And to think, a week ago at this time the Bears were sitting pretty with the seventh overall pick and positioning themselves to cash in on its prime draft spot for a potential trade-down scenario with a team hoping to move up to draft a quarterback of the future.
There are four teams with picks ahead of the Bears that have quarterback listed as a top-3 need, according to NFL.com draft insider Lance Zierlein. So while there are still several teams (Bengals, Cardinals, Redskins, Chargers, and Bills) who could look to move up in the draft to select a quarterback, falling behind teams like the Jets and Broncos isn’t going to help the Bears’ draft pick value.
There is a scenario in which a Bears win and losses by the Bengals, Raiders, and Dolphins would drop Chicago out of the top-10 altogether. If that plays out, the Bears could pick as low as 12th.
Thankfully, the Vikings still have a first round bye to play for in week 17, so they’ll come at the Bears with all they have.