NEWSLETTER
I feel as if it’s safe to say that – through eight games of the 2018 season – Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky is better than what he was last year. Trubisky has seen his completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per game, quarterback rating, and touchdowns move in the right direction. He has also seen his sack percentage take a dip, which is a testament to his decision-making, ability to make plays on the move, and the offensive line’s performance.
And while a chunk of Trubisky’s overall production came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4, we can now say that his statistics aren’t driven mostly by one game. In fact, we now have a four-game sample of games since the one against the Bucs to draw from and possibly find a conclusion. Or at minimum, a better feeling for what Trubisky is right now.
So here are Trubisky’s last four games:
On a per-game basis, we’re looking at a quarterback who throws for 251 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception while adding 46 rushing yards. Overall, those are signs of a quarterback who is coming into his own. With that being our guide, let’s look at what Trubisky’s numbers would be if we extrapolated this four-game sample over the course of a full 16-game season:
Here are some interesting I don’t quite know what to do with: Mitch Trubisky’s last four games extrapolated over a 16-game season = 4,016 yards, 32 TD, 16 INT, 58.46 completion %, 90.7 rating; 740 rush yards, 4 TD.
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) November 7, 2018
We could probably have an endless debate whether this projected 16-game sample would constitute Trubisky doing enough for us to say he has taken the much-talked-about second-year leap as a starter. But the discussion whether or not Trubisky has improved would be a short one. Because even if his completion percentage took a step back and his interception rate increased by a tick, Trubisky would have seen improvements in his yards per game, yards per attempt, and TD%. That points to an overall growth for the player at the position.
Now, let’s factor in that Trubisky has faced four of the top-8 defenses on this list:
Best/Worst PASS DEFENSES in the NFL this season.#DaBears #Browns #RavensFlock #Seahawks #Jets #DUUUVAL #GoPats #FinsUp #FightForEachOther #KeepPounding #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/yZ3wRkCatv
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 5, 2018
The Bears are 2-2 in these games, but Trubisky has held his own against some of the league’s best pass defenses. Here is how his numbers shake out:
These numbers might be more encouraging than his breakout performance against the Buccaneers. Quarterbacks have gashed Tampa Bay since the season opener and haven’t shown any real signs of slowing down. That Trubisky had his coming out party against the Bucs shows that he is capable of putting together a big game when it’s expected. Call it bum-slaying if you’d like. But I’d be concerned if he didn’t have that eye-popping performance.
But I digress because I want to reel it back in and share Trubisky’s overall numbers when throwing against four of the eight best passing defenses in the NFL:
Not only are those numbers strong, they would play out to a 16-game pace of 4,276 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. Yeah, those interception numbers make my stomach uneasy. But the overall production should have Bears fans feeling good about what’s to come. And because the Bears don’t have any other top-10 defenses remaining on their schedule, Trubisky appears well-positioned to finish strong.
The first step toward an satisfying finish kicks off in a few hours when the Bears host a Lions team that ranks among the worst when defending the pass. The general vibe around this game should be similar to that of what we felt going into the showdown against Tampa Bay in Week 4. If Trubisky handles business, the Bears will be in good shape. And if Trubisky emerges as successful as he was in that game, then the second half of Chicago’s season will be off on the right foot.
