Jared Goff is in the midst of another potential Pro Bowl season. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback has completed nearly two-thirds of his passes, thrown for more than 3,700 yards, has a second straight season of at least 25 touchdown passes, and could finish the year with fewer than 10 interceptions.
And yet, there is one statistical nugget that stands out above the rest.
Goff’s splits are eyebrow-raising. Check them out for yourself:
- 2018 HOME GAMES: 70.1% completions, 366.5 yards/game, 18 TD (8.0 TD%), 2 INT (0.9 INT%), 124.5 rating
- 2018 ROAD GAMES: 62.1% completions, 259.2 yards/game, 9 TD (4.7 TD%), 5 INT (2.6 INT%), 92.8 rating
It’s not like Goff becomes a sub-par quarterback when he leaves the friendly confines of the Los Angeles Coliseum, it’s just that his production takes a notable dip. We’re talking about knocking off 8 percentage points off the completion percentage and 107 passing yards off the average, all while watching the percentage of touchdowns throws go down and interception rate climb.
The perception that Goff isn’t as good of a quarterback on the road that he is on the road gets an extra push when you consider his cold-weather start against the Denver Broncos in Week 6. It was 25 degrees at kick-off and even though the Rams won 23-20, Goff turned in a sub-par performance as he completed just 14 of 28 passes for 201 yards. He didn’t throw any touchdowns, but he did throw an interception and was sacked five times en route to posting a 58.8 passer rating.
But what does anything that happened in Denver in October have to do with playing in Chicago in December? Great question. But first, let’s dig into some data:
The mystique of Bear Weather™ is like one of those old family tales that logic tells you not to believe, but you do it any way because it makes for a cooler story. Since 2000, the Bears are 16-10 in games where the game-time temperature is below 30. The Rams are 1-1, but it’s not like they’re getting a ton of cold-weather opportunities because they play in the NFC West.
Again, this brings us to what (if anything) can be applied to tonight’s Bears game that was worthwhile during the early-season Rams-Broncos tilt.
Beyond the idea of Bear Weather™, the Bears have some things in place that are similar to that of what the Broncos were throwing at Goff in Week 6. Elite pass-rusher? The Bears have Khalil Mack where they had Von Miller. Stellar secondary? While Denver had stud corner Chris Harris Jr. holding it down, Chicago is strong with Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara outside, as well as Bryce Callahan in the slot, and Eddie Jackson back deep. If the Bears are to continue Goff on this trend, they’ll need excellence from their biggest strengths in order to pull off an upset on Sunday Night Football.
Bring on the cold, baby! And also, maybe some hand-warmers and an extra pair of ear-muffs.