The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas has shared its NFL MVP odds for the upcoming season, and some of your favorite Chicago Bears are among those to keep an eye on because off the ridiculous value:
— John Murray (@vegasmurray) June 26, 2019
We thought Vegas was giving away free money when we saw Mitch Trubisky’s MVP odds open up at 75/1 at Caesars, but the Westgate has the Chicago Bears quarterback at 200/1. Wowzers! A modest $10 bet on Trubisky winning the league MVP could cash out a payout of $2,100 if it happens. There is no harm in a small investment, especially when it could result in a major payday. And since quarterbacks are generally favorites to win the award, there is a tremendous value in this play.
And yet, that’s not even the best value on the board.
Tarik Cohen is an extreeeeeeeeeme long-shot at 300/1, but the things that need to happen for Cohen to win the league’s MVP are borderline unthinkable.
Running backs took home the MVP in 2005 (Shaun Alexander, Seahawks) and 2006 (LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers), then again in 2012. Otherwise, it’s been a quarterback-dominated award. Alexander, Tomlinson, and Peterson put up massive yardage and scoring numbers when they won their awards. Those guys weren’t just feature backs, but they were inarguably the best offensive players on their respective teams. So for Cohen to do the thing, he would definitely have to re-write some record books, score (A LOT) by way of rushing, passing, receiving, and returning touchdowns. And even then, Cohen would probably have to bank on this year’s quarterbacks not putting up crazy video-game numbers. But since Cohen is a video-game cheat-code, I won’t totally rule it out (even if the odds are essentially telling me to do so). And since a $10 bet could net $3,000 in winnings, it might be worth it just to place a show bet for fun.
Perhaps a more realistic candidate on the Bears is Khalil Mack, especially if writers are tired of simply handing over their MVP votes to the quarterback having the best year. And if that’s the case, then now might be a good time to jump on the Mack bandwagon.
Mack’s MVP odds are at 100/1. Snicker at it all you want, but don’t say I didn’t give you a fair heads up when those odds get slashed if/when Mack gets off to a hot start. Last October, the odds of Mack winning the NFL MVP award were set at 33/1. And while that’s still a decent value, it’s not as much fun as cashing in a 100/1 bet. Think of it like this: A $10 bet on a 33/1 wager pays $340, which is pretty good. But a $10 wager at 100/1 pays out $1,010. I think I’d rather make the investment now, rather than risk not getting the value later.
The game’s rules are set up for quarterbacks to go bonkers, and thus, have an inside track to clean up during award season. With that in mind, I have my doubts Cohen or Mack can reach that pinnacle. But still … the idea of Cohen or Mack playing their way into the discussion is a fun conversation to have.