The analytic thinkers at Pro Football Focus still don’t have much love for Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky.
— PFF CHI Bears (@PFF_Bears) August 19, 2019
Trubisky ranks just 26th on PFF’s season-opening rankings of all 32 starters.
Chicago’s QB1 checks in among the fourth (and bottom) tier of quarterbacks, which features signal callers who have question-marks tied to inexperience and/or volatility in their game. The latter seems to fit why PFF tosses Trubisky in this group, noting the disconnect between the quarterback’s statistical production and his graded performance on a throw-by-throw basis.
Rather than dwell on the negatives, let’s note that it’s not all bad for Trubisky. He ranked 11th in big-time throw percentage and earned an 88.2 grade as a rusher, which was the best among quarterbacks. It’s just that his percentage of uncatchable passes was the fifth worst among qualifiers and his accuracy in passes of 10+ yards down the field left much to be desired. As discussed in an earlier post, there is still much room for growth in Trubisky’s game. If it’s any consolation, at least Trubisky should be well positioned to take that next step forward in a system PFF considers to be one of the best play-calling and playmaking setups in the NFL.
And yet … I can’t get over Trubisky still checking in behind the likes of Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston, and others.
And to think, we thought PFF was slowly coming around to Trubisky. Back in April, PFF revealed that Trubisky closed the year on a high note by posting a 72.8 grade in Weeks 10-17. That number ranked 16th among quarterbacks, which put him smack dab in the middle of the pack. So while it wasn’t great, it was a notably optimistic change of tune from a site whose analytics graded him among football’s bottom tier of signal callers.
And, hey, plenty of people in and around the league (including coaches, scouts, and front office executives) are still expecting a breakout season from Trubisky in 2019.
In the end, it’s mind-boggling to think there is an argument that Trubisky was better as a rookie in Dowell Loggains’ archaic system in 2017 than he was in Matt Nagy’s scheme in 2018. And yet, here we are with PFF grades that say exactly that after reviewing two years worth of tape. Frankly, I’m ready to see what Year 3 has in store for Trubisky.
Can we just get to September 5 already?