The Bears Ain’t Dead Yet … But They Absolutely Must Win This Sunday

Given the way the Bears season had been going for a while there – namely, the four-game losing streak – you’ll forgive us for keep an extra eye on the future, at the expense of the present. But perhaps we shouldn’t have been so quick to look ahead, when what’s going on here in 2019 isn’t technically over. Not yet.

On Monday Night Football earlier this week, Brendan Sugrue of BearsWire caught this graphic from ESPN in all its glory:

We're officially "in the hunt" people. #Bears100 @LaurenceWHolmes pic.twitter.com/SFP0GSXbuB

— Brendan Sugrue (@BrendanSugrue14) November 12, 2019

The Bears are back, baby! Er, well … The Bears are still around, baby! Or, uhm, The Bears are not dead yet, baby!

It is Week 11 and Chicago’s football team isn’t mathematically eliminated. In fact, there’s even a pathway to a postseason berth. It won’t be easy. Indeed, it’s a long shot if anything. But by golly, it exists. So let’s explore it.

But first, let’s take a look at the NFC North standings:

NFC North Standings:

1. Green Bay Packers: 8-2-0
2. Minnesota Vikings: 7-3-0
3. Chicago Bears: 4-5-0
4. Detroit Lions: 3-5-1

So, yes, it would take some sort of epic collapse by Green Bay (and Minnesota) plus something yet unforeseen in Chicago for the Bears to re-capture the NFC North in 2019. That’s pretty clear.

But the math says the Bears still have an outside shot at a wild-card spot. As things stand (entering Week 11), the Bears are just beneath a four-team glob of 5-4 teams on the outside looking into the playoff window. But a win on Sunday against the Rams (plus some help elsewhere) could do wonders for the Bears’ playoff probabilities.

A look at the wild-card hunt from Football Outsiders:

1. Vikings: 53.3% wild card, 87.6% playoffs
2. Seahawks: 52.3%, 84.0%
3. Rams: 10.7%, 11.4%
4. Eagles: 7.3%, 44.2%
5. Panthers: 4.9%, 17.6%
6. Cowboys: 3.9%, 67.0%
7. BEARS: 3.0%, 3.6%

The Bears have to climb a bunch of teams to really get into the picture. But if it is any consolation, they play three of those teams at some point within the final seven games of the season. Beating the Rams, Cowboys, and Vikings will be a tall task, but that is what happens when you lose to teams like the Raiders and Chargers because you can’t hold onto late leads or generate enough offense that would make late-game scores not matter in the final outcome.

Check out the playoff numbers featuring these teams via FiveThirtyEight’s module:

1. Vikings: 86% playoffs
2. Seahawks: 82%
3. Eagles: 62%
4. Cowboys: 47%
5. Rams: 22%
6. Panthers: 18%
7. BEARS: 5%

Playoff futures for the Eagles and Cowboys are strongly tied to winning the NFC East. Philadelphia has been given a 57 percent probability of winning the division, while Dallas sits at 43 percent. Otherwise, the picture at FiveThirtyEight looks similar to that of Football Outsiders.

But let’s have some fun with FiveThirtyEight’s site, which now has a fun gadget for us to play with on its probabilities page. Here, we can choose the results of the next three weeks and see how it changes the postseason probabilities. For the sake of time, let’s just focus on outcomes of the Bears’ next three games (against the Rams, Giants, and Lions).

Here’s what it looks like:

It all boils down to this: Sunday’s game against the Rams is a loser leaves town match. The winner gets to dream on about a last-gasp sprint fueled by last year’s run at greatness. But the loser can start packing their bags for the winter.

So while the outlook appears dreary, a few wins could bring new hope where there was none before. And frankly, that’s all some teams need. After all, the greatest comebacks are built on hope.