Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda, and Other Bears Bullets

California dreamin’? More like California nightmares … am I right?

Yours truly has a day of travel ahead of him, starting with an afternoon flight to Las Vegas, a 7-hour layover, and a red-eye flight back to Chicago. Saving a few bucks while spending some time in Vegas isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Last night was pegged as a “Loser Leaves Town” match, and it went exactly how you would expect for one side. The loser left town last night after Sunday’s game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Hobbled, wounded, and left motionless on the canvas as his opponent takes a victorious walk up the ramp while raising his arms to the sky triumphantly as his music blares throughout the arena.

As the match’s loser pulls himself together, it’s easy to think about the woulda, coulda, shoulda moments. There were plenty. Two early turnovers were turned into a grand total of zero (0) points. There were two missed field goals. A handful of dropped passes, including one that would have led to a fourth down conversion after the Bears rolled the dice in not kicking a third field goal. Two laughable attempts at converting 3-and-1 to keep an offensive drive going. An inability to hold onto what should have been a(nother) Jared Goff interception. And a fourth-quarter fumble recovery that wasn’t pounced on. The Rams tried to give the Bears that game, but the Bears didn’t seem all that interested in taking it. And since this isn’t the first time events have unfolded in this way, it is time to point out this troubling trend.

Much like any classic match, even the loser has a moment where it looks like he can pull off the upset:

Droppin’ dimes in prime time. pic.twitter.com/Q3ia5Sw5o6

— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) November 18, 2019

Nothing encapsulates why the Bears offense is so frustrating better than this moment. Mitch Trubisky’s throw was nice. Tarik Cohen’s route was even better. And the athleticism it takes to have the body control to make that catch, spin, and stay inside the pylon is the stuff that should be happening more often when you are in the second year of an offense and third year in the pros. Instead, these flashes are too few and far between to get too excited about.

Trubisky’s final line: 24/43, 55.8%, 190 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack, 65.1 passer rating. He now has four games in which he has thrown for *FEWER* than 200 yards. Trubisky also has five games in which he has posted a sub-80 passer rating. We’re at a point where he is playing unacceptable football, but the alternative is Chase Daniel (who is a career backup for a reason).

BLERGH:

Mitchell Trubisky struggled tonight despite being pressured on just 5 of 44 dropbacks (11%). Trubisky had little success throwing to his left compared to right.

LEFT: 5/10, 40 yards, INT (20.8 passer rating)
RIGHT: 13/21, 104 yards, TD (90.2 passer rating)#CHIvsLAR pic.twitter.com/f2nw5GMNP2

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 18, 2019

Trubisky has one positive EPA/play game all season, and it was vs. Washington.

He looked good in spots tonight, yet still was below *his* average for *this season*.

He can't return in 2020.

(The dashed line represents the average QB game (across all teams) since 2018.) pic.twitter.com/i1B19lUqs7

— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) November 18, 2019

UNACCEPTABLE:

League average on third-and-one this year is 73%. #Bears rank 26th at 57%. Data from @Sportradar.

— dan durkin (@djdurkin) November 18, 2019

At least the Bears’ 2018 first-round pick is showing signs of life:

#TheRoSho pic.twitter.com/pmJaJ1xiOp

— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) November 18, 2019

Roquan Smith has 32 tackles, one tackle-for-loss, a pass defended, and an interception in his last three games. He has looked better in the four games since the team’s 11-point loss against the Saints in Week 7. Incremental progress is hopefully a good base for Smith to take off down the stretch and end this season on a high note.

This isn’t good:

The Rams recorded a pass block win rate of 79% tonight, their best of the season (average entering today: 54%).

The Bears recorded a pass block win rate of 38% tonight, their worst of the season (average entering today: 62%)

(ESPN stat, NGS data)

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 18, 2019

A banged up Rams offensive line that started three players who had four starts (or fewer) prior to Sunday’s game wasn’t what I expected to see last night.

If you’re wondering where Khalil Mack has been, here is a clue:

Against the Rams, Khalil Mack rushed the passer on 10 snaps and dropped into coverage for 7 snaps.

Rams' run-heavy offense limited the #Bears opportunities to disrupt the passing game

— Lorin Cox (@CoxSports1) November 18, 2019

Mack had no tackles, sacks, passes defended, quarterback hits, forced fumbles, or fumble recoveries. I can’t imagine the extra attention helped his cause:

Khalil Mack is getting all sorts of attention from the Rams offensive line.#nextgenstats

Next Gen Stats, powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/0UQ3EGvUgs

— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 18, 2019

It isn’t like Mack isn’t trying:

Even though he has “only” 5.5 sacks, Khalil Mack is third in the NFL averaging 3.4 pressures per game (via @Sportradar). https://t.co/K3tWWvFtjR

— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) November 17, 2019

I have seen CHI pop up here on this TL far too often for my liking:

CHI decided to punt to LA from the LA 39 on 4th & 10 with 0:27 remaining in the 2nd while losing 0 to 10.

With a Surrender Index of 11.56, this punt ranks at the 96th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2019 season, and the 94th percentile of all punts since 2009.

— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) November 18, 2019

The Bears are 1-percenters. As in, they have a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs, per the updated QB-adjusted Elo rating from FiveThirtyEight. Beating the Rams last night, coupled with favors from the Patriots (who beat the Eagles) and Falcons (who downed the Panthers) would have made for a more tenable situation. Instead, the simple notion of the Bears making the postseason is laughable. That this is the case just months after opening among the Super Bowl favorites is downright disgusting.

Speaking of the Panthers, quarterback Kyle Allen completed 31 of 50 passes and threw for 325 yards, but was sacked five times and threw four interceptions. Those numbers add up to a 47.5 passer rating and a 7.3 ESPN QBR. Or in other words, worse numbers than Trubisky’s 65.1 passer rating and 38.0 QBR from last night.

So are the Panthers having second thoughts when it comes to moving on from Cam Newton? Selfishly, I hope not.

I don’t believe snitches should be allowed to have “revenge games” but here we are:

Aaron Kromer’s revenge: Rams get 97 rushing yards from Todd Gurley and their patchwork O-line held the Bears to 1 QB hit and 0 sacks. (Kromer is LA’s run game coordinator)

— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) November 18, 2019

Aaron Kromer was the Bears’ offensive coordinator during the Marc Trestman era, but made headlines for all the wrong reasons. After blabbing and complaining anonymously about what was happening inside Halas Hall, it was learned that Kromer was the rat. Once he was found out, he issued what the Chicago Tribune described an emotional apology to Jay Cutler for ripping him to a reporter. It was an ugly scene during a dark time.

Here’s a nice story I saw on the news while out in LA:

A pop warner football team in Compton is on its way to making history but they need the community's help to get them there.https://t.co/Wyzff0gb51

— FOX 11 Los Angeles (@FOXLA) November 18, 2019

Boatload of great Deals of the Day at Amazon today, including pet supplies and beds, toys, MacBooks, knives, blenders, headphones, and more. #ad