The Chicago Bears haven’t received a compensatory draft pick in ages, but that drought appears to be on the brink of change.
Nick Korte does a fine job at calculating/piecing together the compensatory draft pick puzzle at OverTheCap.com, and recently shared his latest projections:
My final 2020 compensatory picks projection is now up:https://t.co/poZG5QFchE
For those curious as to why I'm now projecting fewer 3rd round comp picks, please read the "A change in the cutoff calculation at the top" section.
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) January 3, 2020
The good news is that the Bears are CURRENTLY projected to receive a fourth-round compensatory selection for the Green Bay Packers signing away safety Adrian Amos in free agency. Receiving a fourth-round pick is welcome news for a team that is without a first-round choice for the second consecutive season and doesn’t own its third-rounder (Raiders) or fourth-rounder (Patriots) in this upcoming draft. And because GM Ryan Pace has had his share of hits in the middle rounds, getting an extra pick there is pretty darn neat.
As for what the Bears’ collection of picks for 2020 looks like, here is a projection:
Using Nick’s full projections, Bears draft picks look like this:
2nd (Raiders) – No. 43
2nd – No. 50
4th Comp – No. 144
5th – No. 163
6th – No. 196
6th (Eagles) – No. 201
7th – No. 233Nick also has the conditional 5th from the Raiders for Khalil Mack, but I do not expect it
— Brad_OTC (@BradOTC) January 3, 2020
Early projections have the Bears owning two second-round picks (Nos. 43, 50), a fourth-round compensatory selection (No. 144), one choice in the fifth round (No. 163), a pair of sixth-rounders (Nos. 196, 201), and a seventh-round pick (No. 233) to round out the group. The Bears could add a second fifth-round pick (No. 159 overall) if the conditions on the Raiders’ fifth-rounder were met. But because those details weren’t shared when the Bears and Raiders made the deal, it could be a while before that becomes official.
Before we start planning our NFL Draft party and preparing for an eight-pick weekend, there is one hurdle that still needs to be cleared. As Korte notes in his accompanying post, the signing of running back Mike Davis (who was cut before the Bears’ Week 10 game, which put the Bears in a position to receive a compensatory pick for Amos signing with the Packers) could still qualify as part of the formula.
So while Korte is confident Davis will not qualify based on prior precedent that has been set, it isn’t a 100 percent gimme that is how it will play out this year. And if the Bears don’t get a compensatory pick because they signed a player who participated on just 6.64 percent of the team’s total offensive snaps in 2019, then GM Ryan Pace and Head Coach Matt Nagy should be raked over the coals for their mismanagement of the player and miscalculation of draft capital. Full stop.
With that in mind, let’s keep our eye on how this situation unfolds. After all, the last thing a team that is pressed against the cap and isn’t loaded with picks needs is projected picks taken away.