NEWSLETTER
One of the most popular pre-draft sentiments surrounding the Chicago Bears is that they should draft an offensive lineman early. Heck, I’m sure there is an argument to go full Chicago voting style and draft linemen early and often. Unfortunately, the Bears don’t have a first round pick to do the “early” thing or enough picks to do the “often” thing. Either way, the message is loud and clear: load up on linemen. Got it? Got it.
But there’s a catch (dang it). And it’s a pretty big one, too. Because while drafting all of the linemen sounds fun (and strategically sound given the current short-comings, vacancies, and expectations of the 2020 roster), it comes with considerable risk.
Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus tackles the learning curve prospects face moving from college to the pros. And the research shows that things are particularly rough for offensive linemen. Not only is the learning curve steep, the battle often doesn’t yield results until the back half of a player’s rookie contract: “Offensive linemen struggle during their rookie season much more than other positions,” Riske writes. “And, maybe even more interestingly, offensive linemen don’t reach their full potential before Year 3 or even Year 4.”
(Hmm … maybe that’s why the Bears cornered the market on offensive linemen drafted in 2016 with the signings of Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs.)
Alright … so we probably need to get it out of our heads that an offensive lineman in shining armor is coming to save the day, rescue the offense, and make Mitch Trubisky or Nick Foles unstoppable at quarterback. This isn’t to say an offensive lineman can’t help, but history warns against a quick fix coming through the draft at that position. That’s sobering, but it doesn’t sway me away from wanting Chicago to draft a lineman (maybe even two) this coming weekend.
So, where do we go from here?
Riske notes that offensive tackles, in particular, are the types of trench prospects who develop throughout the duration of their rookie contracts. D.J. Humphries is the example given of a prospect who struggled early in his career, but grew into an exemplary pass protector, then secured a rewarding extension with the Arizona Cardinals. For what it’s worth, Humphries’ profile is the type that teams should be willing to wait out on the development scale. Humphries was a five-star recruit coming out of high-school, the top-rated offensive tackle prospect of his class, and earned Freshman All-American honors when he played at Florida.
All things considered, Humphries’ profile is one that we should have our eyes on as we look for possible draft fits for the Bears.
With that in mind, here are some potential targets who make sense based on what we’ve learned from following Humphries’ curve:
• Josh Jones, Houston
Jones’ NFL.com draft profile is littered with reminders that he is a prospect who still has work to do before reaching his potential. But profile author Lance Zierlein is quick to point out that many (if not, most) of his issues are coachable. Jones was an all-conference performer in 2019.
• Austin Jackson, Southern California
Jackson has a similar prospect pedigree to Humphries in that he was an All-American coming out of high school, as well as an all-conference tackle at a power-conference university. But like Humphries, there is still some smoothing out in Jackson’s game that needs to happen. So much, in fact, that there is a belief in some scouting circles that Jackson will need to start his career as a guard before kicking outside.
• Isaiah Wilson, Georgia
Wilson is one of the youngest prospects on the board. Like Humphries, Wilson, too, was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and a prep All-American before signing with Georgia. SEC pedigree with an All-American background puts him in the ballpark with Humphries.
• Cesar Ruiz, Michigan
Ruiz is an interior line prospect, but has similar pedigree traits to what Humphries brought to the table. The Michigan product was a four-star recruit, top-ranked center in his graduating class, and an All-American as a senior in high school. Ruiz went on to earn All-Big Ten honors in 2018 (third-team) and 2019 (second-team).
