NEWSLETTER
The Blackhawks’ impromptu postseason run, while short, was entertaining. At minimum, fans have an idea of what types of changes need to be made in order for the team to make the postseason in a more normal season. Hopefully, team management gets a clue, too.
• My fantasy baseball team is performing far better than some expected to this point of the year. However, at some point, I’ll need to turn (some of) my attention to fantasy football. I’ve long been fascinated by the intersection of fantasy football and the real thing. Hence, I found it interesting when PFF’s Andrew Erickson wrote that drafting Bears running back David Montgomery in the fifth round of your upcoming draft is an “unbelievable value.” And if Montgomery turns out to be as valuable as fantasy gurus suggest, then I’ll venture to say his real-life football value will be tremendous.
• Montgomery had 18 carries inside the 5-yard-line in 2019. Only Dalvin Cook (21) and Christian McCaffrey (20) had more. Five of those carries turned into touchdowns. That’s an efficient clip, but hang with me. No one denies Montgomery needs more carries. But the types of carries are more important. The when and the where matters as much as getting the ball the first place. In short, the Bears need to get inside the red zone more often in order to make those carries count. Increased red zone trips, more Montgomery touches, and more points. The formula is simple enough And with that defense, the Bears should win more than 8 games with improved scoring.
• Of course, it’s worth noting that Chicago’s defense has its work cut out this season. Remember Mike Sando’s QB tier rankings? The ones where Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles don’t grade out all that great? Sando uses those tiers to create strength-of-schedule for each team. And for the Bears, it’s dicey. Chicago faces the third toughest group of QBs this year. Only the Falcons and Vikings have a rougher schedule. The Bears have four games against Tier 1 quarterbacks (Rodgers (twice), Brees, Watson) and five more against quarterbacks in Tier 2 (Brady, Stafford (twice), Ryan, Rivers). At the other end of the spectrum, they have just one game against a bottom tier QB (Minshew, Tier 4). Looking at the schedule through this lens makes me feel tense.
• For what it’s worth, the Bears have an 8-7 record against the quarterbacks on their schedule since the start of the 2018 season. It might not mean much. But it’s something.
• This is unsurprising, but nevertheless, still a buzzkill:
"Unimpressive" – @danwiederer 's initial response to the #Bears current QB competition, as told to @thekapman & @tweetjhood on @ESPN1000 just now
— Jeff Meller (@Jeff_Meller) August 19, 2020
• Again, I’m not surprised that the early stages of the quarterback competition are unimpressive. I imagine it’s uninspiring watching a camp battle at the most important position in the game get settled without games. But this is the reality for the Bears. And it’s up to Head Coach Matt Nagy and his staff to create a competitive atmosphere that will help solve this riddle. This is where creativity could come into handy.
• So how do you do stage a real QB derby without games? Retired NFL GM Charley Casserly has some ideas:
How I see the QB battles with the @patriots @ChicagoBears @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/FhDgF84alU
— Charley Casserly (@CharleyCasserly) August 14, 2020
• Team scrimmages and controlled practices are sensible solutions. But analyzing leadership and intangibles will be challenging. Perhaps checking in with the other players in the huddle could provide insight. I’m fascinated by all this. However, please check in with me next week to see how I feel about a team that has Super Bowl aspirations without an entrenched starter at the game’s most important position.
• More QB talk for your listening enjoyment:
https://twitter.com/TheAthleticCHI/status/1295860033373253634?s=20
• There are few NFL writers whose opinion I value as much as Dan Pompei. So this perspective piques my interest: “This is one reason I believe Mitch Trubisky has the inside track to be the opening day starter,” Pompei tweets. “As @rosstuckerNFL points out, it’s a watered down competition, and Trubisky has familiarity going for him.” Take it for what it’s worth, friends.
• On the other side of the ball, I think we’ll soon see who answers the bell for the CB2 gig:
Artie Burns' ACL injury (per @AdamSchefter) should push rookie Jaylon Johnson into starting role — BIG fan of his game coming out of Utah.
interviewed him early in the pre-draft processpic.twitter.com/QKCJs1aNZ1
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) August 18, 2020
• I don’t think Artie Burns was the long-term answer at the position, even before his season-ending injury. However, he brought depth that possessed upside and I don’t think that should be overlooked. And because the Bears have found value in the secondary in places that have otherwise been overlooked, I was willing to give Burns a shot to earn a starting gig. Instead, I think rookie Jaylon Johnson will get the call (if all things are equal).
• An ex-Lions standout drags his former organization for their treatment of a legend:
Andrew luck didn’t have this problem!!! https://t.co/0wk7vBueH6
— Darius Slay (@bigplay24slay) August 18, 2020
