One thing I’ve long loved about advanced metrics is that they can reveal more than what traditional stats or our eyes can tell us. For instance, advanced analytics love the Bears’ pass-rush. Pro Football Focus’ numbers love the pass-rushing duo of Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. What’s not to love?
Mack is the site’s second-highest-graded edge defender with elite grades as a pass-rusher (90.7) and run-defender (89.8). ESPN’s analytics reveal that Mack has the highest run-stop win rate and the sixth best pass-rush win-rate as an edge defender.
Despite the analytics’ glowing review of Mack’s play, he hasn’t fared much better by more familiar numbers. For example, Mack has just 1.5 sacks, 4 QB Hits, and 2 tackles-for-loss on the year. Extrapolate those numbers over a full 16-game season, and we’re looking at a year with just 6 sacks, 8 TFL, and 16 QB Hits. That’s simply not good enough. And Mack knows it.
“It’s up to us,” Mack said, via the Chicago Sun-Times. “There’s gonna be a spot where we can make that play. And it’s gonna be huge. And it’s gonna be more than one play. Just waiting on that break. And it’s gonna happen.”
The Bears need those breaks to happen tonight. And yes, it’s breaks as in plural. More than one. And it needs to come from Mack and his running-mate lined up on the other side of the defensive formation.
Like Mack, Quinn grades out well at PFF, too. His 73.5 pass-rushing grade is the 12th best among the 110 qualifiers. Not bad for a guy who has played just 31.5 percent of the defense’s snaps this season. But even though the advanced numbers paint a positive picture, I can’t help but wonder why isn’t the production showing up in the traditional metrics.
Quinn had a strip-sack on his first play with the Bears, but has just one tackle to his name since. No quarterback hits, tackles-for-loss, or sacks in the 88 snaps he has played since his play against the Giants. That’s terribly disappointing on so many levels to see Quinn grade out strongly, but not have any production to match. The Quinn signing was supposed to fortify the defense in ways that Leonard Floyd couldn’t. Instead, the Bears are paying high-end money for a player being used situational pass-rusher who has just one sack to his name. This is not the return on investment the Bears hoped to get.
Mack doesn’t make excuses for his lack of production. Nor does he complain about holding calls that are keeping him from mowing down quarterbacks. I like that about him. But something has to change in order for the production to look as good as the advanced analytics. Otherwise, we’ll be looking at a Bears team that invested a ton of money in a defense that looks good enough, but doesn’t have enough juice to win games the offense can’t. But that’s another can of worms for another day.
But for now, just get some sacks … please?