NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Bears have won back-to-back games against opponents who entered those matchups with winning records. It might not mean much to some, but that old fashioned success has vaulted the Bears playoff odds to a place that makes me smile.
But before we get to assessing the latest updates regarding Chicago’s postseason hopes, let’s check out the standings:
NFC North Standings:
Chicago Bears: 5-1
Green Bay Packers: 4-1
Detroit Lions: 2-3
Minnesota Vikings: 1-5
Eat it, Cheesedoodles! The Bears sit atop the division right now.
Bears Playoff Odds
We know that the betting odds have moved significantly on the Bears’ playoff hopes, but what about other models?
Let’s check out the latest from FiveThirtyEight, whose QB-adjusted Elo forecast based on 100,000 simulations of the season has the Bears among the cream of the crop. The latest on the Bears’ playoff hopes:
BEARS: 85% playoffs (+13%), 48% division (+26%)
Green Bay: 83% (-12%), 49% (-26%)
Detroit: 13% (+3%), 2% (+1%)
Minnesota: 8% (-10%), <1% (-1%)
Beating the Panthers shot the Bears playoff odds to a sky-high 85 percent. That’s an increase of 13 percentage points from last week. It even pushed them past the Packers projected playoff probabilities. You just love to see it! Moreover, only the Seahawks (93%) make the postseason in a higher percentage of simulations. At this stage of the game, only five teams have a better chance of getting into the playoffs than the Bears. And just one of those teams is on the Bears’ upcoming schedule. In short, Chicago’s football team is sitting pretty at the moment.
Also, LOLVikings … wyd? Seeing the Lions with better postseason odds is the unexpected October twist no one in the NFC North saw coming.
Football Outsiders:
The payoff odds report from Football Outsiders is another source to get a feel for what the Bears playoffs oddsstand. Football Outsiders simulates the season 29,875 times based on their rating system. From there, mean wins, as well as odds for playoff seed, division, wild card, and total playoff odds are shared.
For this exercise, we’ll focus on the Bears total playoff odds, division odds, and wild-card odds:
BEARS: 76.4 % playoffs, 43.4% division, 33.1% wild card
Green Bay: 75.9%, 49.6%, 26.2%
Detroit: 21.3%, 5.3%, 16.0%
Minnesota: 5,8%, 1.7%, 4.1%
Even after the Bears’ most recent win and Packers loss, it’s Green Bay with a better probability of winning the NFC North than Chicago. But a 76.4 percent shot at making the postseason and 33.1 percent chance at doing so by locking in one of the three wild-card spots is nothing to look down upon.
At 76.4 percent, only the Seahawks (90.6%) and Buccaneers (81.5%), (-10%) have a higher expectancy of making the postseason. And with a 33.1 percent chance at getting in via the wild card, only the Rams (49.1%) and Cardinals (39.5%) have better odds. Even then … the Bears are still looking like they’re in a great spot. And to think, it could get better should they handle business against fellow postseason contenders like the Rams and Saints in the coming weeks.
Also worth noting from Football Outsiders is that the Vikings have just a 3.1 percent chance at earning the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They’ve got a 27.7 percent shot at landing a top-5 pick, but would have to leap-frog three other teams to get there. In other words, should Minnesota do that thing they do so well in being painfully average, they won’t be in a position for Trevor Lawrence to save their bacon. And for that, I am thankful.
In conclusion, the Bears have taken advantage of the soft spots in their early-season schedule. The result has been playoff odds that are encouraging without needing to go through mental gymnastics to figure out a postseason landing spot. Should they continue to stack wins, then I imagine our conversations could grow beyond making the playoffs. Wouldn’t that be something …
