Math Says the Bears Have a Better Chance at a Top-10 Pick Than a Playoff Spot

To say the Bears did major damage to their playoff chances by losing to the Lions (right after losing to the Packers) is an understatement.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, Chicago now makes the postseason in just 10 percent of the site’s 50,000 simulations. At this time last week, they were at 24 percent. And before the six-game losing streak began, the Bears were looking good. They had at a projected 10-6 record and estimated 71 percent chance of making the tournament.

Over at Football Outsiders, the projected playoff picture isn’t much better. The Bears have just a 15 percent chance of making the dance. Their most clear road to a long-shot postseason appearance would come by landing the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. But at 12.2 percent, that’s a pipe dream. All in all, things could be looking better for the Bears’ short-term future.

On the other hand, this news isn’t all bad. In fact, there’s a real argument that this is good news for Chicago’s long-term future and big-picture plans (if you can stomach that sort of angle).

The Athletic’s Ethan Douglas and Dane Brugler tag-teamed a project in which they project each team’s draft order and chances at a top pick. Their findings are based on one million simulations of the season’s remaining games. And if you’re a Bears fan who has embraced the tank, then you’ll likely enjoy how things rolled out in this particular release.

Chicago projects to pick 12th in the 2021 NFL Draft. In the simulations, the Bears’ most common draft spot is 13th. In other words, the odds of Chicago landing with a first-round pick within the top third of the draft are in the Bears’ favor. And to make things all the more interesting, the team has a 30.5 percent chance at landing a top-10 pick. That’s right! The Bears have significantly (like 2-3x) better chances of landing a top-10 pick than a playoff spot. Let that sink in for a moment.

In order to move into that top-10 conversation, they’ll need some help. The Bears need the Broncos, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers to start winning some games. Admittedly, that seems like a big ask. But weirder things have happened.

This all matters because of the caveat Brugler makes in his observations, saying there are four quarterbacks “with a realistic chance” of going in the top-10. Two will likely go off the board to the Jets and Jaguars with the first two picks. After those two teams make selections, the draft will truly begin with the jockeying of the teams who have a theoretical need at quarterback on draft weekend. Brugler believes the Bears, Panthers, Broncos, Lions, Patriots, and 49ers fit the bill. I’d also consider Dallas (if the Cowboys move on from Dak Prescott) and Washington (is Alex Smith the bridge QB again?) as possible QB landing spots. It’s a crowded group, to say the least.

Bottoming out is the Bears’ best chance at sliding into the top-10. And while I wouldn’t have found that option to be feasible a week ago at this time, losing to the Lions in the manner they did opens up a portal to all sorts of possibilities. Some of those avenues could even lead to changes throughout the organization, and ultimately, at the most important position in the game.

written by

Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

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