NEWSLETTER
When the Bears hired Matt Nagy, we thought we were getting an aggressive, creative, and calculated risk-taker — someone who learned under Andy Reid and Doug Pederson, two of the NFL’s premier gamblers when it comes to going for it on 4th down.
Nagy said as much when he arrived at Halas Hall:
Nagy on his play calling: "Aggressive. That’s my nature. But it’s gotta be calculated."
— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) January 9, 2018
Unfortunately, everything since his hiring has shown Nagy to be neither aggressive nor calculated with his game calls. In fact, the numbers suggest Nagy is both conservative and uncalculated when it comes to fourth-down situations.
The data is telling … and damning (you might need a microscope to find the Bears on the far right):
Here is my best effort at quantifying which teams are making good 4th down decisions.
The 2 best, of course, are the teams with the Mike McCarthy connection (Packers & Cowboys).
And wow, Bears pic.twitter.com/wWK1heHy7B
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 5, 2020
Admittedly, there’s a lot that goes into every fourth-down situation. But this graph is painful. Especially when viewed through the prism of the Surrender Index, which highlights cowardly punts.
Check out these recent examples:
CHI decided to punt to DET from the DET 40 on 4th & 4 with 7:22 remaining in the 4th while winning 30 to 20.
With a Surrender Index of 9.64, this punt ranks at the 94th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 92nd percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) December 6, 2020
CHI decided to punt to MIN from the CHI 42 on 4th & 5 with 8:35 remaining in the 4th while losing 13 to 19.
With a Surrender Index of 9.07, this punt ranks at the 94th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 92nd percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) November 17, 2020
CHI decided to punt to TEN from the TEN 40 on 4th & 10 with 12:11 remaining in the 3rd while losing 0 to 10.
With a Surrender Index of 9.68, this punt ranks at the 95th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 92nd percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) November 8, 2020
CHI decided to punt to TEN from the TEN 45 on 4th & 2 with 10:55 remaining in the 2nd while losing 0 to 3.
With a Surrender Index of 20.65, this punt ranks at the 98th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 97th percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) November 8, 2020
CHI decided to punt to IND from the IND 40 on 4th & 7 with 1:37 remaining in the 1st while losing 0 to 7.
With a Surrender Index of 25.7, this punt ranks at the 99.5th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 97th percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) October 4, 2020
CHI decided to punt to NYG from the NYG 38 on 4th & 6 with 3:57 remaining in the 3rd while winning 17 to 3.
With a Surrender Index of 13.88, this punt ranks at the 100th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 95th percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) September 20, 2020
CHI decided to punt to DET from the CHI 48 on 4th & 5 with 7:37 remaining in the 3rd while losing 6 to 20.
With a Surrender Index of 4.19, this punt ranks at the 94th percentile of cowardly punts of the 2020 season, and the 83rd percentile of all punts since 2009.
— Surrender Index 90 (@surrender_idx90) September 13, 2020
I believe fortune favors the bold in football. But you also reap what you sow with the decisions one makes. That Nagy hasn’t been the aggressive and calculating play-caller isn’t the sole reason the Bears stand where they are right now. But it’s one reason Chicago’s football team hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations it set before the season.
There are just four games left in the season. The Bears’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread. They are approaching the “what else do you’ve got to lose?” part of their schedule. So maybe it’s too little, too late to start rolling the dice in this manner. But because the conservative playbook hasn’t paid off, maybe the time is now to try something different.
