Until I wore it out to the point where the color faded, I used to own a green t-shirt that stated: “I’d rather be lucky than good.”
It was the type of thing I’d wear on St. Patrick’s Day, just to make sure I was wearing something green, and thus, wasn’t subject to pinching. I would wear it on casual dates, as sometimes, words on shirts become nice conversation starters. And I’d wear it when I was in a mood that fit the shirt itself. Because, hey, having good fortune on your side can often be better than simply being good. That’s just how the cookie crumbles.
Now, I’m not sure about the fashion sensibilities of Ryan Pace or Matt Nagy. But I am certain that when it comes to landing on Justin Fields as the team’s first-round pick, there’s a case to be made that the Bears were more “lucky” than “good.”
For instance, Joe Banner — a former league exec for the Browns, Falcons, and Eagles who writes at the Mike Tannenbaum football think-tank The 33rd Team — reports the Bears were so set on trading up in the 2021 NFL Draft, they made offers to every team that was picking between Nos. 8 and 12. That means Chicago was chatting up the Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles. All for the opportunity to select Fields. That the Bears were unable to pull off a deal with any of the other teams was short-term bad luck. But it was simultaneously a stroke of good fortune that none of those teams chose Fields for themselves. Carolina, Denver, and Philadelphia could have easily justified taking Fields. And I’m sure some within the Giants’ circles could’ve made a case for it, too.
That Fields was still on the board when the Bears successfully executed a trade-up is no small matter either. And it sounds like they know it.
“I think, based on my conversations before and after the draft, the Bears have to be ecstatic they got Justin Fields at No. 11. And that’s because a lot of his fall was circumstantial,” writes The MMQB’s Albert Breer. “Before the draft, I had a handful of teams that either weren’t going to be in position to take Fields, or didn’t have a need at quarterback, who had the Ohio State quarterback as the second guy in the class.”
Even after the first three choices were made, anyone hoping for Fields to fall to the Bears was holding their breath for a good seven picks. Atlanta could have plucked the Georgia-born Fields as Matt Ryan’s heir apparent. Miami could’ve had a late change of heart, chosen Fields, then pivoted on its stance of committing to Tua Tagovailoa and dealing him to a QB-thirsty team. Detroit could have decided on redshirting Fields behind Jared Goff for a year. Carolina could have used Sam Darnold as a sacrificial lamb while Fields boned up on life in the NFL. Same for Denver, which could have allowed a Teddy Bridgewater-Drew Lock competition play out ahead of Fields, providing a safe-guard against rushing the rookie into action.
But none of this happened. Instead, everything broke Chicago’s way. And honestly, I’m still not sure what to do with my hands here. The Bears and good luck don’t often go hand-in-hand.