NEWSLETTER
I joke about how the due factor played a role in the Bears landing Justin Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft.
But if Bears Head Coach Matt Nagy is citing it when it comes to dialing up the offense in 2021, then I have some questions and concerns:
Matt Nagy on his confidence in the Bears' offense: "This offense, it takes a few years to get going. We saw that in Kansas City where it took a few years. … After about three or four years, it started really picking up and going. I feel like we're at that spot right now."
— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) August 25, 2021
In the interest of fairness, history suggests Nagy is correct. In the first four years of Andy Reid’s time in Kansas City, the Chiefs ranked 21st, 25th, 27th, and 20th in yards. And in his first gig with the Eagles, Philly’s offense checked in at 30th, 17th, and 17th in the first three years in terms of yards before securing a top-10 ranking in yards and points in Year 4 of the regime.
HOWEVA … there are some notable “but’s” to be pointed out here. And it underscores some half-truths in Nagy’s statement. For instance, even though the Chiefs ranked 20th or worse in yards from 2013-16, they ranked 6th, 16th, 9th, and 13th in points scored. Don’t get me wrong. Racking up yards is good. But putting points (preferably more touchdowns than field goals) is my preference. And I’d bet coaches and players would agree. As for those Eagles, they ranked in the top 12 in points scored in five of the first six years of Reid’s tenure. Nagy’s offenses haven’t come close to replicating the scoring, even though the yardage numbers have been equally as unsightly as his mentor’s first few seasons.
And then there’s the quarterbacking situation. Reid’s Eagles had Donovan McNabb after displacing Doug Pederson. And his Chiefs had Alex Smith. For McNabb, he was growing within the system. As far as Smith is concerned, he was a wily veteran with a unique prospect pedigree and some recent success at his previous stop before getting to Kansas City. The Bears could have their own rookie grow with the offense if they turn it over to Justin Fields sooner, rather than later. But for now, they’re rolling out Andy Dalton, who isn’t as accomplished as Smith is in terms of veterans with experience.
Maybe Matt Nagy is banking on the idea that he has skill position players with multiple years of experience in the system who can carry the load. Receiver Allen Robinson II and running back David Montgomery come to mind as playmakers who could carry the freight for this offense because they have at least two years in the trenches. But there is a laundry list of receivers and backs who don’t have that, with Darnell Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd, Cole Kmet, and Jimmy Graham among the most notable. And this is saying nothing of the quarterbacks, both of whom have had one offseason in the scheme.
Part of me reads Nagy’s comment and think he’s full of it as he grasps for straws in trying to understand why his offense hasn’t taken off already. But the optimist in me squints and some fudged numbers and can see why Nagy said what he said. In the end, it’s awfully risky to bank on history as a reason as to why something will work because past results do not indicate future success. And because Nagy hasn’t given us much of a reason to trust him based on his Bears track record, I can’t help but see his angle and reasoning being suspect as heck.
