Fourteen points.
That’s it.
The Chicago Bears scored just 14 points against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
Not only was that short of enough to win, it represents the latest indictment of Matt Nagy’s offense. Let’s face it. While we didn’t think the Bears had a 50-burger in them, it was fair to think they’d do better than 14 points against a defense ranked 20th by Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings and was without two top cornerbacks and its best pass-rusher.
Fourteen. Stinking. Points.
And how bad is it for Nagy? Well, his offense is drawing callbacks to the John Fox era.
Here’s a snapshot of where Nagy’s offense stands based on the last three years:
• Since the start of the 2019 season, there have been 19 games in which the team has put up fewer than 20 points. That is an unsightly 50 percent clip in which Chicago’s offense isn’t even getting into the 20s. And while this was the case for 56 percent of games played in the Fox era, this wasn’t supposed to happen with Nagy’s offense.
• The passing game is non-existent right now. Through six games this season, the Bears haven’t once surpassed the 200-yard mark for total yards gained by passing (a formula that takes into consideration yards lost due to sacks). And since the start of the 2019 season, the Bears have just four games with at least 300 total passing yards. As a point of comparison, Fox’s teams had 8 such games (which is putrid in its own right). Nevertheless, it’s a comparison this offense should want to avoid.
• What might sting most is Chicago’s performances in important rivalry games. In other words, we’re removing games against the Lions. Not that those games don’t count. But to really understand how bad things are right now, we need to put into focus how poorly things are going when the Bears play the Packers and Vikings — two franchises with a more recent run of success. Anywhoo … since the 2019 season began, the Bears have put up fewer than 20 points in 6 of the last 9 games against the Packers and Vikings. That’s not nice. Neither is the fact that the Bears are 1-5 in those contests. That is unacceptable.
• For what it’s worth, Fox’s one win under that same criteria was against Packers and in Green Bay. That’ll buy some leeway from Bears backers, although not enough for it to be worthwhile.
• In the end, Fox’s Bears offenses averaged 18.29 points per game in his three seasons as head coach. And if you take out the Bears’ 2018 campaign, the last three years of Nagy’s offense has spit out an average of 19.73 points per game. Those numbers are too close together for my liking. That we’re even harking back to Fox’s time as a comparable offense should bug the heck out of Nagy, Ryan Pace, and everyone in Halas Hall.
NOTE: Now, we shouldn’t go without mentioning the handful of games in which Bill Lazor was the one calling plays. It’s not entirely fair to credit him with every success the offense makes while dinging Nagy every time things go wrong. HOWEVER, while it is Lazor’s vision and play-calling at the moment, in the end, this is Matt Nagy’s responsibility. His over-arching presence. And his broken offense.
Long story short: Measuring that minimal difference in scoring output between Fox and Nagy is bothersome. Despite having two first-round QBs, a Super Bowl MVP QB, and a reliable veteran running his offense, Nagy’s offense has a been spinning its wheels in the mud. And it’s not like there is a quick fix on the horizon, so what’s the move?
The decline in production, inability to modernize or adapt, and an apparent resistance to put the team’s best players in a position to win ultimately led to Fox’s ousting after the 2017 season. It was clear what needed to be done in terms of changing philosophies and personnel at the end of 2017. But what’s the plan when the new regime, with different players, puts together an offense that produces similar numbers?