What if the Chicago Bears Were Lucky?

If you’ve ever wanted a visual example of the difference between winning and losing, this graphic from Kelley Ford really puts it in perspective.

This is what the NFL standings would look like if every one-possession NFL game had the opposite result of what actually happened. I’m equally intrigued and frightened:

There are a few ways I’ll choose to read this graphic.

Firstly, the Vikings are the luckiest team in the world, and I’ll hear no arguments to the contrary.

Secondly, these Bears aren’t that bad. In fact, a little bit of luck would have them looking good. These Bears. A team brought together as a bridge to a better future. Aren’t as awful as their record at the bye week suggests? It’s mind-blowing to think about how — with just a little bit of luck — they’re an 8-5 team in playoff position. Instead, the reality is they are a 3-10 team looking at the Tankathon reverse standings every week. Maybe that chart isn’t the best indicator of future performance. But it does go a long way toward showing how the margin of error in the NFL is so thin. We’re probably literal bounces of the ball away from having a totally different season.

And then there’s this: Could you imagine if the Bears were in a position to make the playoffs and were entering the upcoming offseason with $120+ million in cap space? With Justin Fields calling the shots as a second-year QB who just led *THESE* Bears to the playoffs? It would be a narrative-changer. Imagine how many players would be angling to be teammates with Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Teven Jenkins, and the rest of the young Bears.

To be clear, I don’t want GM Ryan Poles to deviate from his plan. But also? It is becoming clearer to me with each week that, if Poles plays his cards right, his 2023 Bears could be a pleasant surprise and a real contender for a playoff spot. Could you imagine?

written by

Luis C. Medina, who you can find on Twitter at lcm1986, has been covering the Chicago Bears at Bleacher Nation since 2017. Since then, he has written about 3 head coaches, 5 play-callers, and 11 starting quarterbacks. Previously, Luis wrote about the Cubs and MLB at BN (2015-16) and worked in the Chicago Tribune sports department (2011-16). He also co-hosted a Cubs postgame show, Outside the Ivy, in 2019.

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