The Chicago Bears’ playoff odds sit at 2.3 percent entering Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. If that feels low, that might be because it *IS* low. Only the Denver Broncos (0.9 percent) have a longer shot at making the playoffs, per ESPN’s Football Power Index’s calculations and projections. If you’ll recall, ESPN’s FPI had the Bears with a 34.2 percent shot at making the postseason back in May after (most of) the dust settled on the heavy-lifting transaction period. A drop of 31.9 percentage points is a precipitous one. Y-I-K-E-S.
Once seen as a realistic goal (don’t give me that look — send it to Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles) for this team feels like an extreme long shot at this point. Don’t get me wrong. I don’t want to give up on this season. It isn’t in my nature. But the reality is that the Bears are very much behind the times. As David Haugh (670 The Score) writes, the current vibe around the team makes it feel like we’re closer to the end of the Poles-Eberflus regime (and handing the keys to a new leadership group) than we are to the beginning. And while that is so weird to type on September 29, I’m not going to deny that the feelings around this team have changed drastically because of how they have played. Could they turn it around? Sure. But it is hard to talk myself into that space.
The idea of the Bears playing postseason football felt extra distant after seeing the Lions beat the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Old friend David Montgomery went for 121 rushing yards on 32 carries in Detroit’s win. And, yes, he scored three touchdowns:
It is annoying to think about how Lions fans are only a few years removed from being mad in public places about their ownership group not selling the franchise. And now (GULP!) they appear to be heading on the right track. Why can’t this happen for the Bears?
In addition to a productive evening, Monty also had the zinger of the night (via PFT) (bold emphasis mine):
“It felt real different coming in with the guys I’m with,” Montgomery said, via Kyle Meinke of MLive.com. “Like I said, I’m real blessed to come out here with these guys and get the dub. That’s real big for me. Now I can tell my son I beat the Packers.”
OOF! You just know David Montgomery is going to play his best games of the year against the Bears this season.
Back in 2016, Eno Sarris (then at FanGraphs) introduced me to the concept of FIP-beaters — pitchers whose ERAs were significantly better than their peripheral stats (such as Fielding-Independent Pitching) suggest. And that concept was on my brain last night as I saw that Montgomery ran for 100+ yards and scored three touchdowns — all while averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. David Montgomery is to running backs what someone like Julio Teheran was to starting pitchers.
Things that are aging like expired milk: The D’Onta Foreman signing. Last year, Foreman was a more productive and efficient runner out of the Panthers backfield than Montgomery was for the Bears. And I imagine the hope was that Foreman would follow that up with a similar season teaming with Khalil Herbert, but that hasn’t been the case. Then again, it is hard to repeat your previous season’s work when you’re a healthy scratch for Weeks 2 and 3.
On the one hand, I don’t think David Montgomery being in Chicago would change anything for the 2023 Bears. But on the other hand, Monty was a leader and glue guy. And since the head coach is already having “leadership council” meetings to discuss the level of “fight” and “determination” needed to win football games, perhaps we should re-evaluate what Montgomery’s value to this team was while he was here. At a minimum, I’m starting to think the statistical inefficiencies in his game might’ve been overstated.
We can’t just skip over this upcoming Sunday’s game against the Broncos. Although, I’m sure many of you would like to do just that. This is as close to a “loser leaves town” match as you’ll get for a regular-season NFL game. Robert Schmitz (DBB) points out this statistical factoid: “Of the 356 teams in NFL History that have started their season 0-3, only 6 teams have made the playoffs. Of the 103 teams to start 0-4 since 1990, only the 1992 Chargers battled back to a playoff berth. Statistically speaking, this game represents both organizations’ last hope at achieving their coaches goals.” I guess we can’t say these teams aren’t playing for nothing because they are very much playing for something.
It might feel like everything is going wrong on the Chicago sports scene right now. But at least the hockey team has Connor Bedard. And no one else can say that except the Hawks. (BN Blackhawks)
Recently traded point guard Jrue Holiday has an interest in being traded to the Chicago Bulls. The fit would be wonderful. But as Eli points out at BN Bulls, the path from Portland to Chicago is tough to find.
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