The immediate future looks bright for the Chicago Bears according to one set of projections.
ESPN analytics guru Seth Walder puts the 2024 NFL season through a rigorous simulation process. Using the network’s Football Power Index (FPI), Walder simulates the 2024 football year 20,000 times. That’s a simulation of more than 5.4 million NFL games if you are trying to keep score at home. And at the end, Walder chooses one simulation — No. 515 if that is something you care about — to present as a single representation for forecasting the NFL year to come. It’s random, yes. But as Walder points out, life is just a single simulation. Buddy, don’t I know it…
Anyway, this is what Simulation No. 515 has for the 2024 Chicago Bears:
The “Hard Knocks” hype was real — rookie quarterback Caleb Williams immediately brought electricity to the Chicago Bears’ offense. Williams finished this season as a top-five fantasy quarterback, and wide receiver DJ Moore exceeded 1,300 receiving yards, helping make up for a defense that couldn’t carry over the momentum it had to end the 2023 season. This resulted in high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs that not only added to Williams’ lore but also generated a 10-7 record that allowed Chicago to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the NFC.
Caleb Williams leads the Bears to the playoffs as a rookie quarterback. Swoon. And it isn’t a wham-bam one-and-done, either. This particular situation has Chicago’s football team going on the road and knocking off the No. 2-seed Philadelphia Eagles on wild-card weekend before bowing out in the divisional round. Double swoon. Making the playoffs and avenging what happened in January 2019 when the Bears and Eagles met in the postseason would help heal some old wounds.
Yep. I’m sold. How can I transfer myself into the portal where I can access ESPN’s simulated universe for the 2024 NFL season? Is there a world between worlds I can access? Do I need to do some deep meditation? Shall I try to channel the power of the Force? Please. Tell me. I must know.
MORE: 2024 Chicago Bears Depth Chart
The Bears are getting a whole bunch of national love
It is one thing for me to share my optimism about the season ahead. But it is an entirely different story when national observers weigh in with optimistic appraisals of the Bears’ situation.
For instance, did you see Mike Florio’s Week 1 power rankings? If not, here they are:
Thirteen! I can’t remember the last time Chicago’s football team opened that high on a reputable list. To give that number some additional perspective, the Bears ranked 21st on Florio’s list which was posted around this time last year. That jump should help folks understand how far this team has come in the last calendar year. It is also worth pointing out that the Bears ranked 21st on Florio’s season-ending power rankings when he put a bow on the 2023 NFL season.
NFL Network’s Kyle Brandt released his 2024 playoff predictions, which include the Chicago Bears making it as a seventh seed. He also has the Green Bay Packers missing out altogether. Wouldn’t that be wonderful? If anyone needs me, I’ll be looking for ways to get myself into this particular universe. Meanwhile, Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post hears there are plenty of Bears believers in NFL circles. La Canfora’s predictive history with the Bears isn’t great, but I’m going to let it slide here for the sake of sharing a wider range of perspectives.
Over at The Ringer, Diante Lee has the Bears making the NFC playoffs as the sixth seed. And while doing so, drops this important note (bold emphasis mine):
There are a lot of reasons to like this team outside of the hype for rookie QB Caleb Williams, but he puts it over the top for me. …
… Williams really is the star here, and he has a chance to make a big splash on a team built to get the most out of its rookie passer. D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet are a strong supporting cast, and free agent running back addition D’Andre Swift can give this team some pop if defenses prioritize stopping the pass. Bears fans have too much scar tissue built up to be too excited just yet, but the rest of us don’t have to be bound by their cautious optimism. This team will be a lot of fun, and it can be pretty damn good.
Bears fans are scarred people (present company included). And because of it, there is pushback against optimism coming from certain corners of our space as fans. As part of our writer-reader-fan relationship, you know I’ll never tell you how to fan. However, I will say that it is OK to allow yourself to feel optimistic about a team that is giving you reasons to feel that way. There have been so many years when trying to find a silver lining in the dark cloud has been kin to a taffy pull. This isn’t one of those years. Following your favorite sports team is supposed to be fun. Enjoy it.
And if you’re someone who wants to yuck someone’s yum, just don’t. I spent time over the weekend binge-watching classic episodes of The Simpsons and came across Season 6, Episode 7 a.k.a. “Bart’s Girlfriend.” In the episode, Jessica Lovejoy plays hard-to-get with Bart Simpson. At one point, she responds to one of Bart’s passes with the line “Do you ever think anything you don’t say?” and instantly shuts him down. Sometimes, it is OK to keep internal thoughts as just that. Let people enjoy things and feel optimism. After all, this particular simulation of life is too short to do otherwise.