Bears Offense vs Texans Defense: How Do They Stack Up?

The Chicago Bears travel to Houston this week to take on the Texans on Sunday Night Football. On Wednesday, Matt broke down the Texans’ offensive tendencies and how they stack up against the Bears’ defensive tendencies, and today, I’m going to do the same with the Bears’ offensive tendencies and the Texans’ defensive tendencies.

Chicago Bears Offensive Starting Lineup

  • QB: Caleb Williams
  • RB: D’Andre Swift
  • WR: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze*
  • TE: Cole Kmet
  • LT: Braxton Jones
  • LG: Teven Jenkins
  • C: Coleman Shelton
  • RG: Nate Davis
  • RT: Darnell Wright

*Rome Odunze’s status for this weekend’s matchup is up in the air as he deals with a low-grade MCL sprain. (Luis: Things are iffy now, but the big-picture status looks encouraging.)

Houston Texans Defensive Starting Lineup

  • LDE: Will Anderson Jr.
  • LDT: Mario Edwards Jr.
  • RDT: Folorunso Fatukasi
  • RDE: Danielle Hunter
  • WLB: Azeez Al-Shaair
  • MLB: Jake Hanses
  • SLB: Henry To’oTo’o
  • LCB: Derek Stingley Jr.
  • RCB: Kamari Lassiter
  • NCB: Myles Bryant
  • FS: Jimmie Ward
  • SS: Jalen Pitre

Bears Offensive Tendencies

It’s hard to say definitively what the Chicago Bears’ offensive tendencies are under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after just one regular season game. Still, we have some data to help us paint a loose picture heading into this week.

In 2023, Shane Waldron had the Seattle Seahawks lined up in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers) 64.2 percent of the time on early downs, which ranked 15th in the league. When Waldron had the Seahawks in 11 personnel on early downs, they passed the ball 69 percent of the time, which ranked fifth in the league. Waldron’s second most-used package on early downs was 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers), and he passed the ball out of that formation on early downs 50 percent of the time.

From that, we can assume that when in 11 personnel are on early downs, expect the pass. It’s a coin toss when in 12 personnel are on early downs.

On third and fourth downs, Waldron’s offense in Seattle was in 11 personnel 85 percent of the time (11th in the league) and passed out of that package 93 percent of the time (first in the league). On third and fourth down, expect 11 personnel and expect a pass.

Shane Waldron Bears
(Photo by Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)

During the preseason, Waldron had the Bears in 11 personnel 46 percent of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. He had more than three receivers lined up on early downs 48 percent of the time (fifth-highest) and two or more tight ends lined up in early-down situations 40 percent of the time (sixth-highest).

In Week 1, Waldron’s personnel groupings were odd. The Bears’ top three receivers — DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze — were on the field together for only 10 snaps. Tight end Cole Kmet played only 48 percent of the snaps, while Gerald Everett played 61 percent of the time.

On Thursday, Waldron admitted that he needs to find a better balance.

“That’s more on us, starting with me, of getting the reps a little balanced out,” he said. “But it also goes back to playing efficient football.”

Texans Defensive Tendencies

DeMeco Ryans runs a 4-3 defense in Houston, but don’t expect to see a singular base package. Houston ran almost 1,100 plays on defense in 2023 and lined up with 480 different groupings, the eighth most in the NFL last season.

Much like we’ve seen in Chicago, Houston has leaned into the new trend of playing a 4-2-5 look (four linemen, two linebackers, five defensive backs) rather than the traditional 4-3-4 based 4-3 look (four linemen, three linebackers, four defensive backs). Many base 4-3 defenses in the NFL have shifted to this as their base package to combat the growth of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers) as the predominant offense around the league.

Of Houston’s 1,100 plays run on defense last season, 78.2 percent were in the 4-2-5 look, with the traditional 4-3-4 being their top “sub-package” at 18.6 percent. Expect to see five defensive backs on the field most of the time for Houston.

Houston Texans 2024 NFL Draft Priorities
Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans in a 2024 AFC wild card game against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

So, what does that mean for the Bears’ offense?

In 2023, Houston was league average in EPA/Pass against 11 personnel, which figures to be Shane Waldron’s main look if his tendencies from his time in Seattle continue.

Houston allowed 27 points to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. Colts starting quarterback Anthony Richardson threw for 212 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in a 29-27 Texans victory. Despite escaping with a win, Houston was vulnerable to the deep ball, with Alec Pierce averaging 41.7 yards per reception on three catches and Ashton Dulin hauling in a 54-yard touchdown reception. Additionally, Adonai Mitchell had an 88.89 percent separation rate in Week 1, the most of any wide receiver with more than six opportunities.

X-Factor

DJ Moore

If the Bears offense is going to get going, DJ Moore will have to be more than a deep decoy in Houston. At this point, we have no idea if Rome Odunze will play, which makes it challenging to make a pick, but I will go with Moore.

The Bears can win this game if they can exploit Houston’s deficiencies against the deep ball on Sunday night. DJ Moore should be a big part of that. In 2023, Moore ranked fifth in the NFL in deep targets and seventh in EPA (+83.9).

Moore’s Average Target Distance (ADOT) was 10.9 yards. In Week 1, it was 6.6 yards. That will have to change as Waldron finds the right balance in his offense here in Chicago.

Bears WR DJ Moore
(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Last week, much of the game plan revolved around feeding Keenan Allen the ball on intermediate choice routes. Allen had a 45.8 percent target rate in Week 1, the highest clip in the league. His ADOT was 9.5 yards.

Allen’s ADOT in 2023 was 9.6, 8.5 in 2022, and 8.9 in 2021. In Week 1, Allen had two deep targets, averaging roughly 1.5 per game in the previous three seasons. So, it seems like Waldron has a good plan for Allen in terms of the route tree that he’s installed for him, which jives with his career averages, but he’s got to get DJ Moore doing more of what he’s best at and stop using him as a screener out of the backfield and a short stick route guy, exclusively.

Again, it’s just one week’s worth of data, and Waldron admitted today that he wasn’t happy with the personnel balance last week, so there’s not much cause for concern. But if Chicago is going to beat Houston, they will need to beat them deep, and Moore should be a significant part of that game plan.

Honorable Mention: Braxton Jones

Jones will have his work cut out for him this week lined up opposite Will Anderson Jr. Anderson led all rookies in pressures last season with 64 and generated the most “quick pressures” (35) of any rookie since 2018 (NFL NextGen Stats).

Anderson’s average pass-rush-get-off was 0.76 seconds, the quickest by any Houston defender since 2018. In 2023, Jones allowed the ninth-highest quick pressure rate among left tackles with 250 pass block snaps or more at 4.5 percent.

If Anderson eats Jones alive, there won’t be much time for deep shots. In structure, anyway.

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Patrick grew up in Chicago's Bridgeport and Garfield Ridge neighborhoods before moving to the Western Suburbs of Chicago before eventually relocating to the Las Vegas area with his family in 2023. He started with Bleacher Nation in 2021 and has spent time as a Staff Writer and on the Chicago Blackhawks beat. He is currently a writer and editor at Bleacher Nation covering the Chicago Bears and the NFL at large and the author of the Bleacher Nation Newsletter. Patrick is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA).

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The day that Dane Brugler drops his first NFL Draft board should be a holiday, if only because I need it to fully get a grasp on which prospects rank where in the eyes of one of The Athletic's analysts....

ESPN’s Adam Schefter Makes A Bold Prediction About the Chicago Bears 2025 Schedule

We are three days into the post-Super Bowl NFL offseason schedule and I have already learned one thing — it is never too early to include the Chicago Bears in a hypothetical scenario. ESPN's Adam Schefter shares his belief that the...

Raiders Staff Loaded With Ex-Bears, NFL Offseason’s Most Interesting Teams, Jets Had a Plan For Rodgers, and Other Wednesday Bullets

It's Day 38 of the Chicago Bears offseason. Does anyone want to call their shot and predict the Super Bowl Halftime Show performer for next year's game? I don't think anyone would've predicted Kendrick Lamar this time last year, so...

Ian Cunningham Will Reportedly Interview With the Jaguars on Friday

Even though the NFL coaching carousel has come to a stop now that the New Orleans Saints have hired a head coach, there is still one prominent opening to be filled — and it could belong to Ian Cunningham. The...

2025 Chicago Bears Offseason: Dates, Deadlines, and When to Expect Things

With Super Bowl LIX in our rear-view mirror, it is time for us to fully immerse ourselves in the Chicago Bears' offseason plans. Sure, the Bears (and their fans) have been in offseason mode since early January late November after...

The NFL Hiring Cycle is Complete: The Saints Are Making It Official With Kellen Moore

Kellen Moore is extending his stay in New Orleans. Two days after the Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LIX at the Superdome in New Orleans, the team's offensive coordinator is flying away to become the Saints' new head coach: Eagles...

Super Bowl Leftovers, Early Power Rankings, How to Build a Winner, and Other Bears Bullets

It's Day 37 of the Chicago Bears offseason. I can't believe the Justin Fields vs. Caleb Williams discourse is still happening online. It is absolutely unnecessary, friends. The Bears have bigger and brighter things ahead. And if the cards fall...

Caleb Williams Already Has an Offseason Improvement Plan in Place

If you watched Super Bowl LIX and wondered what it would take for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears to reach the mountaintop, know you are not alone. The day after the Super Bowl always puts me in a reflective...

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Can I Bet on the 2025 NBA All-Star Weekend Events? Best Tips for the Festivities

The NBA All Star Weekend is a celebration of basketball brilliance, a showcase of the league's most talented players. From the electrifying slam dunk contest to the sharpshooting three-point competition, the weekend is packed with entertainment. But for many fans,...

Latest Odds See Liverpool Favored to Win UEFA Champions League

The roar of the crowd, the clash of titans, the pinnacle of European club football – the UEFA Champions League. As the tournament progresses, anticipation builds, and the latest odds paint a picture of who the bookmakers believe are the...

Top Player Prop Bets for Heat vs. Mavericks on February 13, 2025

The Miami Heat visit the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on Thursday (tip at 8:30 PM ET). Those looking to place a player prop wager can find odds for Bam Adebayo, Kyrie Irving and others in this contest.How to...

Top Player Prop Bets for Rockets vs. Warriors on February 13, 2025

Alperen Sengun and Stephen Curry are two of the players with prop bets on the table when the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors meet at Toyota Center on Thursday (opening tip at 8:00 PM ET).How to Watch Rockets...

Top Player Prop Bets for Clippers vs. Jazz on February 13, 2025

Player prop bet options for James Harden, Walker Kessler and others are available when the Los Angeles Clippers visit the Utah Jazz at Delta Center on Thursday (tipping at 9:00 PM ET).How to Watch Clippers vs. JazzDate: Thursday, February 13,...

Musetti vs. Moutet Prediction at the Argentina Open – Thursday, February 13

In the Argentina Open Round of 16 on Thursday, No. 16-ranked Lorenzo Musetti meets No. 66 Corentin Moutet.In this matchup, Musetti is the favorite (-300) versus Moutet (+225) .Argentina Open InfoTournament: The Argentina OpenRound: Round of 16Date: Thursday, February 13Venue:...

Zverev vs. Cerundolo Prediction at the Argentina Open – Friday, February 14

In the Argentina Open quarterfinals on Friday, Alexander Zverev meets Francisco Cerundolo.With -285 odds, Zverev is the favorite against Cerundolo (+210) in this matchup.Argentina Open InfoTournament: The Argentina OpenRound: QuarterfinalsDate: Friday, February 14Venue: Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis ClubLocation: Buenos Aires,...

Seyboth Wild vs. Djere Prediction at the Argentina Open – Friday, February 14

In the Argentina Open quarterfinals on Friday, Thiago Seyboth Wild takes on Laslo Djere.Compared to the underdog Seyboth Wild (+115), Djere is the favorite (-150) to advance.Argentina Open InfoTournament: The Argentina OpenRound: QuarterfinalsDate: Friday, February 14Venue: Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis...

Norrie vs. Michelsen Prediction at the Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com – Friday, February 14

In the Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com quarterfinals on Friday, Cameron Norrie takes on Alex Michelsen.Against the underdog Norrie (+120), Michelsen is favored (-155) to advance.Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com InfoTournament: The Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.comRound: QuarterfinalsDate: Friday, February...

Kecmanovic vs. Giron Prediction at the Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com – Friday, February 14

Miomir Kecmanovic will face Marcos Giron in the Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com quarterfinals on Friday, February 14.In this match, Giron is the favorite (-118) against Kecmanovic (-110) .Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.com InfoTournament: The Delray Beach Open by VITACOST.comRound:...

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