NEWSLETTER
As I usually do, I spent much of this morning re-watching the Bears game. While I was doing so, I came across this line, which seemed as damning as it gets for the Chicago Bears offense:
“Right now, the quarterback is surviving on his own.”
The line is from Mike Sando’s Pick Six column at The Athletic. It’s a quote from an evaluator who calls Shane Waldron the worst offensive coordinator in the NFC North. It implies that Williams is just surviving despite Waldron’s perplexing offensive concepts through the first three games.
“The Bears’ problems, in my opinion, start with the offensive line and the construction of it,” an evaluator said. “Then it’s Waldron, especially when you look at the other coordinators in the division. He is clearly fourth. The head coach is fourth. Right now, the quarterback is surviving on his own.”
I have thoughts on that evaluation, the coordinator, and the head coach, but let’s start with some positives. As much as Sunday seemed like doomsday, there were some positives.
The Good From the Bears Loss to the Houston Texans
Caleb Williams threw for a rookie franchise-record 363 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions on Sunday in the loss to Indianapolis. He completed 33 of 52 pass attempts, averaged seven yards per completion, and finished with a passer rating of 80.8.
I’ve seen so much stupidity online in the last 24 hours that my head hurts. Everyone’s entitled to their opinion, and I suppose we all process what we see differently, but at the end of the day, the tape doesn’t lie. I keep saying this, and it remains true. I wrote for two seasons that Justin Fields wasn’t the guy because there was no visual evidence of a competent quarterback between his incredible runs and occasional deep shots.
You can poo on Caleb Williams’ one bad interception where he was late on the throw to the flat, a silly but easily correctable mistake, all you want. The second interception was a combination of a great play by the defensive back, Rome Odunze not winning at the catch point, and sheer luck that Jaylon Jones was in the right spot at the right time to snag the pass breakup. Elite quarterbacks throw into tight windows. Williams threw into a tight window, and what followed him hitting his throw was unfortunate, but not on him. It falls in the “sh— happens” bucket.
You can bellyache that he had to throw the ball 52 times—and I’ll agree with you there—but that’s misplaced blame. D’Andre Swift averaged 1.5 yards per carry on Sunday. Everyone not named Caleb Williams rushed for 55 yards on 27 attempts as a unit against arguably the worst rush defense in football. When you’re 1) not generating anything on the ground and 2) playing from behind, you will throw the football a bunch.
You can be mad at whatever you want, but it’s impossible to deny that Williams is improving weekly. The feel-good results aren’t there yet, and who knows when they will be with this disaster of a situation they have on the offensive line, in the backfield, and on the sideline, but it’s undeniable that Williams is making adjustments from game to game and improving.
An aside: I was watching the Rams and 49ers game in the afternoon window yesterday, watching Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan scheme up an offense for Brock Purdy and a 36-year-old Matthew Stafford, and I thought to myself, what would Caleb Williams look like if we dropped him into one of these offenses right now?
It’s maddening that the Bears never get this right. Disciples of that coaching tree are littered across the NFL in various positions. They are all well-respected offensive gurus, all having more success than any Bears offensive coordinator we’ve ever seen.
Anyways, back to the good from Sunday.
Rome Odunze listened to national talking heads dunk on him all week, and he responded with his first 100-yard game and his first receiving touchdown of the season in Indianapolis: six catches, 112 yards, and a touchdown for the rookie on Sunday.
Cole Kmet‘s snap counts keep rising, and so does his production. Who would have thought it? Kmet caught 10 of 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown.
DJ Moore had 78 receiving yards on Sunday. The trio of performances from Odunze, Kmet, and Moore marked the first time the Bears had had three receivers with at least 70 yards since Sept. 30, 2018, in a 48-10 win over the Buccaneers at Soldier Field when Tarik Cohen (121), Taylor Gabriel (104) and Trey Burton (86) did it (via Larry Mayer).
Roschon Johnson finally got some run on Sunday, and he did alright, picking up 30 yards on eight carries (3.8) and did well out of the backfield as a pass-catcher and in pass protection. Johnson earned career-best PFF ratings on Sunday, finishing with a 74.7 rushing grade, 72.1 receiving grade, and a 76.1 pass-blocking grade. Khalil Herbert’s knock has always been that he can’t pass protect. If Johnson can, there’s a path to him being a more significant contributor to this offense.
The Defense did its thing again on Sunday. Jonathan Taylor Jonathan Taylor-ed here and there and finished the day with 110 yards and two scores, but that will happen when that unit is on the field as often as they were. Chicago’s defense held Anthony Richardson in check, finishing with 167 yards, no touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions.
The Bad
Unsurprisingly, the offensive line stunk again. Williams was sacked four times on Sunday, and the run game was missing entirely. When you watch the film and you see things like this, you can only laugh (in a hysterical villain origin story manner):
Once again, I have no idea what Matt Eberflus is doing with game management. It’s so bad. The timeout usage, the challenges, the lack of readiness in decisions like whether or not to go for two or kick an extra point, etc., aren’t good. He is just not good at this aspect of the job. Perhaps the Bears should consider something like the Raiders did for Antonio Pierce, adding Marvin Lews to the staff, with his sole purpose being to advise Pierce on game management.
The Ugly
Shane Waldron’s offensive concepts have been so bad this season. It’s easy to get lost in the frustration surrounding his incompetence in these first three weeks, but the hire was well-received during the offseason, locally and nationally.
Here’s why:
2023 SEA: 12th in DVOA, 17th in points
2022 SEA: 13th in DVOA, 9th in points
2021 SEA: 7th in DVOA, 16th in points
Waldron sucking, this bad, was not on my bingo card this season. But here we are. Or, more importantly, where do we go?
Back to the drawing board, I hope.
Waldron isn’t getting fired, so let’s come to terms with that now. He’s not going anywhere. Deservedly or not. It is still early. The same patience I’m preaching for Caleb Williams, I’m trying to have with Shane Waldron. Still, it’s been a brutally bad three weeks for the new OC.
That turnover on downs, when the Bears had multiple shots inside the five-yard line, was the worst series of play calls I have ever seen—no exaggeration. It wasn’t until the ridiculous speed option on fourth down that the Bears had two tight ends on the field. Instead, DeAndre Carter (5-8 180 lbs.) was in a condensed split on the first three plays and had run-blocking assignments.
Then, when Waldron finally decided to bring two tight ends onto the field in a goal-line situation, he ran a speed option to the opposite side of his extra protection, and the offensive line was dismantled and on the floor in less than a second.
Waldron is giving me Dollar Tree Shanahan vibes. He tries to be cutesy and creative, but he’s not that good at it and doesn’t have the personnel for it, and it just looks like crap. Reel it in, big fella; let’s just start with the basics, establish a rushing attack that looks better than a Pop Warner football team, and maybe focus on some extra pass protection.
Speaking of the run game, D’Andre Swift has been awful. He is precisely why teams should never jump the market to overpay a running back unless you go all the way in on the investment and swim in the Saquon Barkley or Josh Jacobs waters.
If Roschon Johnson isn’t the featured back moving forward, Waldron and Eberflus need to be examined.
