Losing to the Washington Commanders put a dent in the Chicago Bears playoff odds.
Let’s start with the updated standings before jumping into forecasts at ESPN and The Athletic.
NFC North Standings:
1. Detroit Lions: 6-1
2. Green Bay Packers: 6-2
3. Minnesota Vikings: 5-2
4. Chicago Bears: 4-3
The 2024 Chicago Bears (4-3) currently find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs. As things stand right now, the Bears are in the No. 8 spot in the NFC standings behind the Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) and Vikings (5-2). If the season ended today, ESPN notes that Minnesota would have the tie-breaker on Philly based on “strength of victory.” Thankfully, the 2024 NFL season marches on — and so does our look into the Bears’ playoff odds.
Why is this a must-win for the Bears?
This graphic explains why Week 9 is a virtual must-win for Chicago’s football team:
A win on Sunday bumps the Bears’ playoff odds to 71 percent, according to Pro Football Focus’ calculations. However, losing to the Cardinals in Week 9 would drop Chicago’s chances to make the postseason to 44 percent. That is a swing of 27 percentage points. This is as big as they get in terms of regular-season games. I sure hope Bears Head Coach Matt Eberflus can drive home how important this one is for this team’s playoff hopes.
Also of note: Based on PFF’s forecast, Bears fans should also root for the Lions to drop the Packers’ and for the Kansas City Chiefs to sink the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Every bit helps the Bears’ playoff odds.
Bears Playoff Odds
Let’s check out the latest Bears playoff odds from ESPN, whose Football Power Index provides updated odds for every team to make the playoffs, win its division, and make the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears Playoff Odds (ESPN):
- BEARS: 27% playoffs, 3% division, 2% Super Bowl
- Detroit: 96% playoffs, 64% division, 31% Super Bowl
- Green Bay: 81% playoffs, 22% division, 13% Super Bowl
- Minnesota: 68%% playoffs, 11% division, 7% Super Bowl
It hurts to think about how the Bears’ playoff odds dropped 13 percentage points because this team couldn’t cover a Hail Mary pass as time expired. Chicago’s football team has no one to blame but itself if it doesn’t make the playoffs.
The Athletic’s Playoff Odds:
Austin Mock shares The Athletic’s NFL playoff projections. This is what the forecast looks like for the Bears and the rest of the NFC North to make the playoffs, win the division, and win the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears Playoff Odds (The Athletic):
- BEARS: 27% playoffs, 3% division, 1% Super Bowl
- Detroit: 97% playoffs, 67% division, 16% Super Bowl
- Minnesota: 77% playoffs, 18% division, 5% Super Bowl
- Green Bay: 65% playoffs, 12% division, 2% Super Bowl
The NFC North is a juggernaut, which is why losing to the Commanders is going to stick in my craw for a while. That loss dropped the Bears’ playoff odds from 39 percent last week to 27 percent this week. That is a 12 percent drop. Brutal.
On the one hand, a 4-3 start isn’t awful. It isn’t even bad. This is the best seven-game start the Bears have gotten off to since 2020 when the team began the year with a 5-2 record. Those Bears were actually off to a 5-1 start before losing six straight, then winning three of their last four to squeeze into the final NFC playoff spot. Repeating history in 2024 would be damning on so many levels.
In recent years, we’ve looked at the Bears’ playoff odds and realized how much help they needed to back into a postseason spot. And we might be heading down that road again if this team can’t pick up a win against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.