NEWSLETTER
As most Bears fans have, I’ve been thinking a lot about Caleb Williams and his regression over the last two weeks.
I still think he’s seeing the field decently well, but what we saw from him in college – elite arm talent, accuracy, and most importantly, confidence – seems to be dwindling as the weeks go by.
Arm talent doesn’t just fall off a cliff when you put an NFL uniform on. Accuracy issues can definitely arise as defenses get tighter, but we’ve still seen him make some amazing throws this year.
Then there’s confidence. Confidence can be tricky. When going from college to the NFL, it’s fair for some players to lack a little confidence. But Caleb Williams didn’t seem to lack any confidence in camp and in the preseason.
However, when you’re asked to play a different way than you’re used to, that can harm confidence. When you’re asked to do too much, that can harm confidence. When you’re asked to be something you’re not, that can kill confidence.
As the weeks go by, it’s becoming abundantly clear that those three circumstances are in play. When scrolling Twitter this morning after the Shane Waldron firing news, I came across this post on X from Johnathan Wood of DaBearsBlog and I think it summed up pretty well what’s going on with Caleb Williams.
Caleb Williams is having the Caleb Williams coached out of him. He came into the NFL as a Ferrari and has been asked to be a mini-van. Safe, reliable, won’t let you down as long as you have your hands at 10 and 2.
With Thomas Brown now at the helm calling plays, at least we’ll get to the bottom of who is actually coaching Caleb Williams to be overly conservative.
Through the first nine games of the season, and really it’s been most obvious in the last three, Caleb Williams is being told to limit risk-taking. Don’t make mistakes. Don’t turn the ball over. It’s almost like the coaching staff used the bye week to over-emphasize that playing conservatively and not to lose games is more important than taking shots and playing to win games. I think Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, and Rhett Lewis described it perfectly on their Move The Sticks podcast. Take a listen.
I think Bucky Brooks hit it on the head.
“If you try to take someone who was a gunslinger like that, and make him a game manager, you take away all of his special qualities that made him the number one overall pick.”
Bucky Brooks, Move The Sticks Podcast
It’s easy to point the finger at Shane Waldron, and he most certainly should shoulder a lot of the blame for why Caleb Williams hasn’t really developed much, but I think it’s completely fair to look at Matt Eberflus too. Geno Smith never looked like this in Seattle, and I don’t know many offensive coordinators who enjoy taking limited risks and not letting talented quarterbacks let it rip.
What this feels like is that the head coach is drilling into his offensive coordinator and quarterback that the most important thing is not making mistakes. It’s not developing your incredibly talented QB. It’s not letting him learn on the fly and work through mistakes. It’s not taking chances and being careful. That’s just not how you win in the NFL, and it’s especially not how you win with a quarterback like Caleb Williams.
It’s yet another reason why you don’t pair a defensive-minded head coach who’s coaching for his job with a rookie quarterback.
Tell me, who was the last team to win a Super Bowl that had goal of “let’s just not make mistakes and play conservative” on offense? Maybe the Broncos in Super Bowl 50 because they had Peyton Manning whose arm was shot? Tom Brady and the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII but those teams weren’t known for not trusting their quarterbacks. If you want to win in this league, you have to allow your quarterback to let it rip, especially when your quarterback has the skillset of Caleb Williams.
Did the Bulls try to tone down Derrick Rose’s explosive playmaking skills? Did the Blackhawks tell Patrick Kane to cool it with his elite ability to fit the puck through tight windows because it might not get through? No. They were allowed to take chances and use what made them great to grow both physically and mentally. That’s what helped make them both great.
Hopefully, with Thomas Brown in charge, we’ll get a little bit of a different look. Jason Lieser of the Sun-Times had an article yesterday on Brown potentially getting the reins, and in his post on X promoting it, he included a quote that stuck out:
If Thomas Brown’s philosophy is truly what that quote says, then we should see a spike in Caleb Williams’ gunslinger mentality this week.
For starters, Thomas Brown has nothing to lose. If Matt Eberflus was ensuring that the offensive game plan was more conservative when Shane Waldron was in charge, that’s not something Brown needs to concern himself with. This staff is likely a lame-duck staff.
Brown has a chance to call plays for Caleb Williams for the next 8 games. It’s an audition for him to get a chance to call plays somewhere again in the future. He would be foolish to play it conservatively with this new chance to establish himself. What gives him the better chance at getting an OC job in the future, an eight-game body of work with Caleb Williams putting up numbers or game plans like the ones we’ve seen the first half of the season?
As for Caleb Williams, this is a chance for him to learn where to toe the line with his head coach. Is there a time and a place to not make mistakes? Of course. But Caleb needs to get back into the mindset of who he was in college and during the preseason. Matt Eberflus likely isn’t going to be around next season. Caleb Williams will be. Take more shots, give your receivers more chances in one-on-one coverage. Try to get your swagger back.
What will Matt Eberflus do, pull you? I would be stunned if Ryan Poles ever allowed that. I’m not necessarily one for defying your coach, and I’m not saying to flat-out ignore him, but Caleb Williams has to start picking his spots and start taking his development and his career into his own hands instead of leaving it in those of a defensive-minded head coach who won’t be around much longer.
We’ll see what happens Sunday in Green Bay, but I hope offensively this offense plays like they have nothing to lose, because they really don’t. Thomas Brown will be on someone’s staff next year somewhere. Caleb Williams will still be the quarterback of the Bears. What do they have to lose?
Throwing interceptions and making mistakes early on don’t kill careers. Just ask Peyton Manning. What can kill careers is having the “special” coached out of you. What can kill careers is being asked to be something or someone you’re not. Hopefully this week, we see more flashes of special Caleb return.
