The Chicago Bears are home this weekend, taking on the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field in Week 11. How does their offense stack up against the Packers’ defense? Let’s discuss.
Chicago Bears Offense
- QB: Caleb Williams
- RB: D’Andre Swift
- WR: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze
- TE: Cole Kmet
- LT: Braxton Jones (Q)
- LG: Teven Jenkins (Q)
- C: Coleman Shelton
- RG: Ryan Bates
- RT: Darnell Wright (Q)
Green Bay Packers Defense
- LDE: Lukas Van Ness
- LDT: Kenny Clark (Q)
- RDT: Devonte Wyatt
- RDE: Rashan Gary
- WLB: Quay Walker
- MLB: Edgerrin Cooper
- SLB: Isaiah McDuffie
- LCB: Jaire Alexander (Q)
- RCB: Keisean Nixon
- NB: Javon Bullard
- FS: Xavier McKinney
- SS: Evan Williams (Q)
(Q) = Questionable
Tale of the Tape
Chicago Bears Offense
- Points Per Game: 19.4 (24th)
- EPA Per Play: -0.11 (25th)
- EPA Per Pass: -0.18 (28th)
- EPA Per Rush: -0.06 (21st)
Green Bay Packers Defense
- Points Per Game: 21.6 (11th)
- EPA Per Play: -0.07 (9th)
- EPA Per Pass: -0.06 (11th)
- EPA Per Rush: -0.08 (9th)
Stats that Matter
- Let’s hit the easy ones first. Green Bay ranks ninth in overall defensive EPA per play, 11th in EPA per pass play, ninth in EPA per rush play, and 11th in scoring defense this season. The Packers are far and away the best defensive unit the Bears have seen this season, and it comes on the heels of Chicago switching offensive coordinators.
- Chicago has gone 23 consecutive drives without scoring a touchdown. That is tied for the second-longest streak in the league this season and the longest touchdown drought for the Bears since they went without a touchdown in Weeks 6-8 in 2017 under John Fox.
- This isn’t necessarily an offense vs. defense stat, but the Bears have lost 10 straight to Green Bay dating back to 2019.
- The deep ball continues to be a bugaboo for Caleb Williams, who has completed seven of 38 attempts in 20-plus air yards. He has a touchdown and four interceptions on such throws this season. Green Bay’s defense has had six interceptions on such passes this season, tied for the league-high with Indianapolis.
- Caleb Williams has been blitzed on 25.5 percent of his dropbacks on early downs. I wrote last week that Williams was his most efficient at passing the ball on early downs, and that’s a big reason why. Conversely, opponents have blitzed Williams on 48.9 percent of his third-down dropbacks. Green Bay’s defense has blitzed 29.7 percent of the time on third down, nearly double the rate it does on early downs.
What does it all mean?
Packers Week is never one Chicago fans look forward to, especially not in recent years. It’s always a tough spot, and welcoming Green Bay to Soldier Field on the heels of a three-game losing streak—in which the offense has been as bad as any point this season—and a change at offensive coordinator seems like a recipe for disaster.
The Bears haven’t beaten Green Bay since 2019, but this week feels like it has the potential to be as ugly as the 55-14 blowout that ultimately led to Marc Trestman losing his job. The offense is pulseless, and under new leadership, the defense is banged up and vulnerable. Matt Eberflus is making a bed similar to Trestman in 2014. This feels like a potential “final nail in the coffin” game for Eberflus and the Bears.
Green Bay loves to blitz on third down, plays the deep ball well, and is a top-10 unit in almost every facet defensively. If the Bears aren’t perfect, Green Bay could run away with this one early. Buckle up, friends.