NEWSLETTER
The 2024 season is all but over for the Chicago Bears and I have reached the point where I care more about the future than I do about the present. Can you blame me? This team goes into Week 15 with a less than 1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Heck, it is within the realm of possibilities that Chicago’s football team will be officially eliminated when it takes the field for its Monday Night Football showdown against the Minnesota Vikings.
With that being said, I believe that you can’t know where you’re going if you don’t know where you’ve been. So with that thought rattling around in my head, I started thinking about how we got to this point in the first place and what it means about what will happen moving forward. One offseason decision that figures to get looked back on a ton between now and when the new league year begins is drafting punter Tory Taylor in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Taylor was the top special teams prospect who entered this past year’s draft and was viewed as an immediate impact player upon arrival.
When the Bears drafted Tory Taylor, the decision was met with praise. And understandably so based on his track record. But given the benefit of hindsight, should it have been?
Did the Bears do the right thing in drafting Tory Taylor?
TORY TAYLOR STATS (NFL Ranking)
- Punts: 63 (tied for 2nd most in the NFL)
- Punt yards: 3,067 (2nd)
- Longest punt: 68 yards (tied-13th)
- Punt average: 48.7 yards (13th)
- Net punt average: 41.6 (19th)
- Punts blocked: 0 (thank goodness!)
- Punts inside the 20: 23 (tied-8th)
- Touchbacks 3 (only 6 punters who have been available for at least 10 games have had fewer)
The numbers above represent a mixed bag for Tory Taylor.
Don’t get me wrong. There is some good stuff to take away from the data above, primarily with the number of punts that have been down inside the 20. Anecdotally, I feel as if that number could have been higher if Chicago’s coverage units had been stronger earlier in the season. I can recall a handful of punts that would have counted toward the inside the 20 stat had a Bears special teams player not missed a tackle. But focusing on that feels too nit-picky for my tastes.
Even with the good, some other stats aren’t as good as I thought they would be before diving into the research. For instance, I thought that, based on his collegiate exploits, Taylor’s punting average and net punt average would rank better than they do. But then I remind myself that Taylor is a rookie, so it is possible (even likely) that these numbers represent a baseline of what to expect on the low end from Tory Taylor. At least, that is how I’ll frame it at this point of the season.
For what it’s worth, a collection of four Yale products run @ThePuntRunts, which have Tory Taylor as the 11th best punter (minimum 39 punts) based on pEPA (Punter epa/punt above expected). All things considered, I feel as if getting an above-average player with a Day 3 pick is a net positive in the grand scheme of things. But when you think about the holes the Bears have elsewhere, it feels fair to wonder if GM Ryan Poles could have done better.
Of the players who were drafted after Tory Taylor, these are the only ones who have earned primary starting duties as a rookie (PFF grades and position rank in parenthesis):
- Tight end Cade Stover, Houston Texans (52.2, 66th/79)
- Safety Malik Mustapha, San Francisco 49ers (68.4, 27th/92)
- Cornerback Cam Hart, Los Angeles Chargers (60.5, 78th/118)
- Cornerback Jarvis Brownlee, Tennessee Titans (55.5, 93rd/118)
- Running back Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (62.1, 43rd/56)
- Center Beaux Limmer, Los Angeles Rams (60.3, 29th/41)
Maybe some other players emerge as starters before their rookie contracts expire. But the reality is that there is not a player in the collection of talent above that makes me think that the Bears could have done better than drafting Tory Taylor.
The tight end room in Chicago is solid with Cole Kmet at the top of the depth chart. I suppose the Bears could use another cornerback, but I feel as if they have done well enough in the draft with Kyler Gordon and Terell Smith to give me enough confidence to think that this front office can unearth another gem. Beaux Limmer grades out worse than Coleman Shelton at PFF, which has the Bears center at No. 12 on its rankings. The Bears have had their share of running back injuries, so Tyrone Tracy would be nice to have right now. But where would he fit if everyone was healthy?
Given what we know about the player they drafted and the handful of prospects who have been given an extended chance to play as rookies, it is fair to conclude that the Bears did fine in using a fourth-round pick to draft Tory Taylor. I wonder if I’ll feel this confident in re-visiting every notable transaction made last offseason. Stay tuned.
