Quaker State 400 Picks and Best Bet from Atlanta   

The Nascar Cup Series qualifying from Atlanta Motor Speedway is in the books and just like in the Spring, Fords dominated the show. In superspeedway fashion though, this had little effect on the odds. I perused the post-qualifying numbers and have pinpointed a couple bets to place before we go green. Check out my Quaker State 400 Picks and Best Bet. 

Post-Qualifying Quaker State 400 Picks & Best Bet

Aric Almirola will lead us to the green flag tonight and has seen his outright odds plummet to 18-1 in most places. This is well warranted considering the pole sitter has taken the checkered flag at new Atlanta twice already. But he won’t be found on my card as Aric has never finished better than 8th over his 15 career races in Atlanta. I am looking at a Ford to begin my card and in an untraditional fashion, atop the odds board.

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Ryan Blaney to Win +1100 (BetMGM)

I don’t normally like to bet the top of the board at superspeedways, but Blaney always finds himself on my list. He has a great pedigree on these track types and has been tremendous at new Atlanta in particular.

Blaney has started all three of our races here in the top three rows. He has led laps in each of them as well. In addition, he was great here in Spring helping keep teammate Joey Logano up front for the majority of the day before ultimately finishing 7th.

Ryan was the cream of the crop at our last super high speed track of Charlotte where he led 163 of the 400 laps en route to a win. And he finished runner-up at our last drafting race of Talladega back in April. I wouldn’t advocate for a large bet, but if I had to pick one of the favorites to win, it’s the No. 12.

Other Quaker State 400 Outrights I’d consider:

Denny Hamlin +1400 (DraftKings)

Chris Buescher +2500 (Caesars)

Austin Cindric +4500 (DraftKings)

Check out the pre-qualifying bets I made HERE

Grid Position of Winner 1-9 +165 & 10-19 +145 (Caesars)

It is a little weird to essentially be betting against yourself. That said, as long as the race winner comes from spots 1-19, you’ll still profit with good money management. And, this is very likely to happen.

You see, in the first three races at new Atlanta, there have only been three top 6 finishers who started the race outside this range. Each race only had one such occurrence, and the highest finishing spot for someone starting outside the top 19 is 4th by Corey Lajoie (Spring ‘23) and Erik Jones (Fall ‘22).

This range of starting spots gives you my outright pick Ryan Blaney, the Spring race winner Joey Logano, and winner of the first race at the new Atlanta, William Byron. Plus you get the likes of Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric, and Kevin Harvick.

I know it’s definitely possible to see someone outside this range win, especially with race favorite Chase Elliott starting 23rd. But moving through the field is much more difficult at Atlanta than the two traditional supers of Daytona and Talladega. I like my chances here.

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Quaker State 400 Best Bet

CHAOS & hopefully a Tyler Reddick Top 10 +125 (BetMGM)

I love the Red Dog this week and think he’s a legit race-winning contender that has already performed well in Atlanta in the past. He qualified fine, just missing out on a top-10 spot yesterday. He also maneuvered his way to a top 5 finish here in the Spring and led laps in the first two events for RCR in 2022.

All of that said, if I’ve learned one thing over the first few years of my Nascar betting journey, it’s that there is no such thing as a guarantee or best bet at superspeedway-type tracks. For that reason, I’m reluctant to call it my Quaker State 400 Best Bet, but to keep things fun, here we are. So let’s go Tyler Reddick!   

Featured Image credit: Alex Slitz/Getty Images

written by

Just a regular guy who absolutely loves sports. I've been playing, watching, and recreationally betting on sports for over 30 years. My favorite sports to attack at the sportsbook are Football (NFL/NCAAF), College Basketball, and most recently - the NASCAR Cup Series. I'm not an "expert" and I don't have or use betting models, but I do put in the research and apply that to my wagers which are mostly backed by the trending data with of course a little, as Gibbs from the show NCIS would say "Gut Feeling" contributing to the side chosen. Sports betting should be fun and enjoyable so always play within your means and NEVER chase your losses. You can follow me on Twitter @Brian_Twining - Let's try and win some bets!

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