The skies have finally cleared, โfingers crossed it stays this wayโ, and the Great American Race is set to go green. That means it’s time to make some Daytona 500 picks and get our annual NASCAR betting expedition underway.
HA.. HA.. HA.. โpredictionsโ at Daytona is a cruel joke. There is no such thing on this 2.5-mile super speedway that promotes bumping, blocking, and brings us the always anticipated โBig Oneโ.
All that said, itโs NASCARโs Super Bowl so just like last Sunday, weโre here to have some fun, and hopefully keep the losses to a minimum. And hey, maybe weโll even get lucky and win a bet or two. So without further ado, here are my 2024 Daytona 500 Picks, Predictions, and Best Bet.
Daytona 500 Picks & Predictions
I like to say that making Daytona 500 picks and especially trying to predict the winner, is like trying to hit a bullseye in darts blind-folded. And the last three years have only added to this belief with all three winners having been 30-1 or longer at some point leading up to their respective races. So watch out, itโs dart throwing time.
Christopher Bell to win +2000 (DraftKings) .25u
The Bell has already rung once this weekend in Daytona with Christopher claiming the checkered in Duel no.2 on Thursday night. Toyotaโs looked great on track in their new body styles wininng both Duel races and posting the fastest times during practice on Friday.
Bell has been very competitive at Daytona in the past and although we havenโt seen a Duel winner take home the Harley J. Earl trophy that same weekend since 2012. If what we saw leading up to today is any indication, I expect to see Bell and multiple other Toyotas competing for the Daytona 500 win.
Austin Dillon Top Chevy +1400 (Caesars) .25u
Iโm trying to hit a moving dart board with this one but I feel the odds are a little too long and offer some potential value.
Corey LaJoie to finish on lead lap +100 (BetRivers) 1u
Ole Corey LaJoieโฆ Weโre talking about a driver who has the 2nd best average finish at Daytona since 2019 and just one, yeah, thatโs right, just ONE finish worse than 16th here since jumping in the no.7 Spire car in 2021.
More impressively, LaJoie has finished the Daytona 500 worse than 24th just ONCE during his seven appearances. Heโs one of only five drivers to have been RAF (running at finish) of at least 8 of the last 10 races at Daytona. And only one driver (Joey Logano), has completed a higher percentage of the possible laps at the World Center of Racing.
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Corey has seven Great American Race apperances and finished on the lead lap in the last four of them. Over his 14 total races at Daytona, he has had LLFโs (lead lap finishes) in exactly 50% of them, with two finishes just 1 lap down.
These odds imply thereโs a 50% chance of this hitting but considering his recent successes at Daytona, especially in the 500 with Spire, I think weโre getting a little bit of value here. Lajoie is a machine at Daytona International Speedway, especially during the 500, which is why I bet him pretty much every time we visit this track. And what makes this my favorite bet among all these Daytona 500 picks.
Michael McDowell -110 Over Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DraftKings) 1.1u
No matter the unpredictability here, I’m still trying to find value with my Daytona 500 picks. I think these odds fit that mold and arenโt just wrong, but wrong by a lot. Not only should McDowell be the favorite here, he should probably be pinned against someone higher up the Daytona 500 odds board.
We recently found out that Front Row Motorsports is now in alliance with Team Penske which thrusts McDowell and his team up a rank in terms of equipment grade. And should promote more teamwork between he and the Penske garage that boasts three really good to great super speedway racers.
This news, along with the fact that Stenhouse Jr. is driving for the one car team of JTG Daugherty Racing, should have pushed these odds well in Michaelโs favor.
Ironically, McDowell has significantly shorter odds than Stenhouse in pretty much every placement market on DraftKings and at pretty much every single book offering Daytona 500 odds. That info alone means these odds should be way shorter than they are, and I havenโt even dove into their head to head history at Daytona which also leans in McDโs favor as you can see below.
Stat | Michael McDowell | Ricky Stenhouse |
---|---|---|
H2H | 7 | 3 |
500 H2H (5) | 4 | 1 |
Avg. finish | 16.6 | 21.4 |
DNF | 2 | 4 |
LLF (Lead Lap Finish) | 7 | 2 |
RAF (Running at Finish) | 8 | 6 |
2024 Daytona 500 Best Bet
Unpredictability, chaos, and an exciting race/finish
Sorry, I canโt in good conscience give out a โbest betโ for the most unpredictable and crazy race. The fact that even the best active driver at Daytona and quite possibly superspeedways as a whole, Denny Hamlin, only finishes on the lead lap here 64% of the time says it all.
No matter the amount of research or data, me or anyone else pulls for this race, it can all go up in flames quicker than it takes them to fire up the engines. So if youโre so inclined, find your favorite Daytona 500 picks and make a few small fun bets. Then sit back and relax as the 2024 NASCAR season gets underway with the Great American Race!