Wild West Shuffle – Navigating the Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds from Sonoma
The NASCAR Cup Series buckles up for another wild ride as they head to the scenic Sonoma Raceway! With the track sporting a brand new coat of asphalt, and two manufacturers with body styles never ran here, handicappers are left with plenty of questions in wine country.
Early odds have been released, offering a glimpse into how the betting world sees the race unfolding. Will past Sonoma masters like last season’s winner Martin Truex Jr. reign supreme, or will a new driver rise to the challenge on the resurfaced track? Buckle up race fans, as we take a look at the early Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds and which market(s) I’m attacking before practice and qualifying.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds
The early Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds paint a fascinating picture. Sportsbooks still see Martin Truex Jr., the Sonoma King, and last year’s winner at opening odds as long as 35-1 as this season’s favorite. However, fresh asphalt and new body styles that have never run here for Ford and Toyota, throws a wrench into predictions.
Drivers like William Byron, who triumphed at the season’s only other road course, Circuit of the Americas, and former road course master Chase Elliott are intriguing this week. With the track a mystery, there may be plenty of value to be found further down the board. See the entire Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds board from DraftKings Sportsbook below.
Driver | Odds to Win |
---|---|
Martin Truex Jr. | +550 |
William Byron | +750 |
Ty Gibbs | +750 |
Kyle Larson | +750 |
Christopher Bell | +750 |
Tyler Reddick | +850 |
Chase Elliott | +850 |
A.J. Allmendinger | +1300 |
Michael McDowell | +1400 |
Chris Buescher | +1400 |
Denny Hamlin | +2000 |
Ross Chastain | +2200 |
Daniel Suarez | +2200 |
Austin Cindric | +2200 |
Will Brown | +2800 |
Ryan Blaney | +2800 |
Kyle Busch | +2800 |
Joey Logano | +4500 |
Alex Bowman | +4500 |
Cameron Waters | +6500 |
Todd Gilliland | +10000 |
Justin Haley | +10000 |
Chase Briscoe | +10000 |
Carson Hocevar | +10000 |
Brad Keselowski | +10000 |
Bubba Wallace | +20000 |
Austin Dillon | +30000 |
Noah Gragson | +40000 |
John Hunter Nemechek | +40000 |
Corey Lajoie | +40000 |
Zane Smith | +50000 |
Ryan Preece | +50000 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +50000 |
Kaz Grala | +50000 |
Josh Berry | +50000 |
Harrison Burton | +50000 |
Erik Jones | +50000 |
Daniel Hemric | +50000 |
Early Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds Bets
Road Courses have traditionally been extremely predictable with the contenders and pretenders evident based on specific track and track type history. This week’s visit to Sonoma Raceway doesn’t fit this narrative with fresh asphalt laid down and two of the manufacturers running their first race here in new body styles. All that said, I think we can bank on traditional road course racers excelling here and have found a couple of pre-practice values I’m excited about. Check out the Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds I’m betting before cars start ripping laps from wine country.
Tyler Reddick to Win +1000 (FD) | Top 5 +150 (CZRS)
Since the unveiling of the next-gen car, Tyler Reddick has been the clear top dog on road courses. He has an average finish of 9.5 and only two finishes worse than 8th over these 14 races. Unfortunately, those two results came here at Sonoma, which, unlike the rest of the road courses, was as much about tire preservation as it was about racecraft.
That will not be the case this year with the repave, leading me to believe Reddick’s usual speed on road courses should prevail making his pre-practice numbers very enticing. Especially considering Red Dog has never failed to impress on Saturdays ahead of road races. Tyler failed to qualify, or start a road course race 5th or better just ONCE in the next-gen car, and began our first road trip this season 3rd at COTA.
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In addition to targeting odds that I think have a good probability of hitting, I’m always looking for numbers that may shorten after we see practice and qualifying. This helped us cash Martin Truex Jr. Top 3 +1000 last year at Sonoma Raceway, and I think Reddick might be that guy this year to a lesser extent.
The books clearly had difficulty handicapping this race, posting 7 drivers shorter than 10-1 with Tyler being one of them. He’s a risk like everyone else near the top. But considering Reddick was opening as the favorite on most road courses last season, it’s worth it. Let’s Go Red Dog!