NEWSLETTER
Just like the Blackhawks could trade for Seth Jones or sign Dougie Hamilton, the likelihood of either of those things happening is seemingly slim-to-none. The same can be said for their ability to make a trade for Jack Eichel. The reality is, they likely won’t do it.
Nor should they.
Over the weekend, the New York Post reported that the Blackhawks were interested in Buffalo Sabres Captain Jack Eichel, the former second-overall pick in the 2015 NHL Draft. No kidding, right? Chicago is a team with many needs and a team that has the ability to fit a large-ish contract on their books (with some maneuvering) and has young prospects to shell out as assets to acquire higher-end talent.
But when you consider where they are in their current rebuild plan, and the direction to which the organization has made a commitment, it feels counterproductive to try to land one of the biggest fish out in the waters this offseason via trade or free agency. Chicago is not going to be fixed with one giant splash deal or free agent signing. It’s not that simple for them and they are currently focused on building their team through in-house young talent. A plausible deal to land Eichel would have to include multiple top-tier draft capital and top-tier young players, things the Blackhawks shouldn’t be letting go of.
For example, so that we’re all on the same page, a reasonably acceptable deal from Buffalo’s perspective might include (1) the 2021 11th overall pick, (2) the 2021 43rd or 63rd overall pick, (3) the 2022 first round pick, (4) Kirby Dach, and (5) Alex DeBrincat. And even that might not be enough.
Don’t get me wrong, Eichel would be the perfect fit to fix the Blackhawks’ need for a true No. 1 centerman. He’d be a player that you could pin a lot of the future on, alongside veterans Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews (if he returns to the team). He would alleviate a lot of responsibility for Toews, if/when he returns to the team, allowing him to be more effective in a more limited role. A role that Toews hasn’t played in for the Blackhawks in his entire career. Eichel’s a superstar in the league and has a ton of offensive scoring talent that Chicago lacks, outside of Patrick Kane and Dominik Kubalík (and Alex DeBrincat, but remember, you just traded him away).
The stopping-point for the Blackhawks in a potential deal for Eichel is, and should be, his price tag. In an era of the NHL where we are going to see a flat salary-cap for the foreseeable future, Chicago should not be flirting with the $81.5M cap ceiling when they are a team that is not going to be a Stanley Cup contender. Eichel is entering Year 4 of an eight-year, $80 million deal with the Sabres that comes with a $10M AAV cap hit. He has a full no-movement clause that kicks-in for the 2022-23 season and remains through the end of the deal.
The other contracts that the Blackhawks have on the books with no-movement clauses are Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, and Jonathan Toews, all of which run through the end of the 2022-23 season. With an $81.5M salary cap ceiling, how do you justify having four players with no-movement contracts already totaling $36.5M? Trading for Eichel essentially makes Chicago’s theoretical “Stanley Cup window” smaller.
Let’s say Chicago pulls the trigger and pays whatever high price it ends up taking to get Eichel. If that deal doesn’t involve Kane, or any of the players with no-movement clauses during the 2022-23 season and things go south with the team, how do you expect to get out of those four deals at the same time? How do you try to recover from an epic failure that could cripple the team financially after losing major draft capital and top-tier prospects? We know the Blackhawks organization loves to portray themselves as this golden franchise and these “Champions of Chicago.” Imagine the fire sale in February of 2023 where the team has to ask Toews, Kane, Keith, and/or Eichel to all waive their no-movement clauses so they can trade them away and begin to rebuild…once again.
I’d imagine that would be the same span of time where Jeremy Colliton would be fired, as would Stan Bowman (if he is still around by then), given the hypothetical epic collapse and failure I’ve dreamed up in my head. It’s just what I’ve come to expect from the franchise at this point in time.
A further note to my point: In the modern salary-cap era of the NHL, no team has won the Stanley Cup with a player under contract at a $10M AAV or higher, let alone three of them (all forwards).
Ultimately, would it be worth it to an organization that is currently looking to build for their future and is already investing in their in-house young players? Simply, no.
